In mid October of 2007, Senator Clinton held wide leads in California and in national polls. Just two weeks ago those leads, which had shrunk by half, were still in double digits. Today these pluralities have all but disappeared. Senator Clinton's national lead has been diminished to 4%, her lead in California has been cut to 2%.
This pattern replicates the same trend in every contested caucus and primary thus far. Senator Obama, down more than 20 points in the months before Iowa won big. A week before NH he was down by 12% and and finished down only 2.8%. He was down by as much as 27% in Nevada in the weeks before the caucus and closed to within 9%. Down by double digits in SC, Senator Obama finished on top by an eye popping 28%.
Early voters in California may have missed this latest development, and 18% remain undecided. At this point one must consider Senator Clinton the favorite but due to proportional allocation of delegates it is clear that regardless of the results on Fat Tuesday Senator Obama has the resources, the support and the momentum to carry this fight to the end.
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1