Interesting number in Field Poll results: early voting not necessarily favoring Clinton in CA

[book_worm]

"Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote the results are 32% Obama-31% Clinton."

http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html

Good internal info on the CA Field Poll.

The California Field Poll released today shows the Democratic race within the margin of error of the poll with Hillary Clinton at 36% of likely voters and Barack Obama at 34% with 18% undecided and another 12% voting for other candidates. It documents what Field calls a “strong surge” for Obama since its last poll taken in mid January, just 9 to 12 days earlier. It has a margin of error of 4.5% and was taken between Friday January 25 and Friday February 1.

While many will have their hunches reading the tea leaves here as to who will win the California primary, this one is simply too close to call, and the race will be determined by those who actually turn out and vote. It is not just the margin of error of the poll here of static statistics, but a volatile and unpredictable electorate and the closeness of division in those who have already made up their minds. For those who have surmised that Obama may have a steep road to go up because of early vote by mail voters, consider this: Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton—hardly decisive at all.

The entire Field poll is now available online , runs to 9 pages, and is fascinating to review. It shows John McCain widening his lead over Mitt Romney to 8 points, 32% to 24%.

Field has been polling in California since 1947 and is widely respected, dubbed the “gold standard” by many political observers. They describe their findings as “Obama’s support has been increasing steadily, while support for Clinton has been relatively stagnant.” If anything, it appears that Clinton’s support actually dropped from 39% in the prior survey to the current 36%, but this is within the margin of error of the poll

[saltpoint]

1. Friends in Berkeley say Sen. Obama enjoys significant support in the Bay

Area.

Not sure what's going on in Modesto and Fresno.

[featherman]

2. Nice find - thanks for the numbers

This is why I check into DU - not for the food fight

[Nimrod2005]

3. And SD

[flpoljunkie]

4. Thanks much for giving us these early voting numbers! Very encouraging!

[BootinUp]

5. I just don't believe that.

something is wrong with picture.

[my3boyz]

15. James Carville

said there is a problem with this poll. He said any pollster can tell you that? I hope he is wrong.

[Adelante]

6. That is interesting

I didn't expect that. Thanks.

[BootinUp]

7. What do they mean by:

Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote the results are 32% Obama-31% Clinton.

That is not votes already cast.

[Herman Munster]

the polls are everywhere

The last Survey USA Poll showed Hillary leading early voters by 24 points.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7417510e-b5e4-4e94-a6f2-fd6e70635255

[angie_love]

8. I wonder how true that is

Thats fascinating if true. Not expected at all.

[sunonmars]

9. why dont we just wait until Tuesday, we are driving ourselves nuts

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

10. It is all tea leaves, but good to hear nonetheless

[TomClash]

11. Thank you for the post

This is useful and supports what I'm hearing elsewhere.

[Bullet1987]

12. I never bought the idea that Clinton

had this gashing lead amoung the early voting in CA. anyway. That's what happens when you don't live and die by the polls.

[still_one]

13. I don't know if it is or isn't, I voted early for Obama. However, the way the Clinton supporters

were posting yesterday, it had already been determined that the absentee voters had already given Hillary a victory

The truth is in California absentee votes are counted first, AFTER the polls close. No information about absentee votes is given until after the polls close

[Adelante]

14. Demographic stuff

Clinton led in Los Angeles County by 8 points, 42% to 34%, down from a 16 point lead earlier, and also was favored by 10 points in “other Northern California”. Obama had a 41% to 31% lead in the san Francisco Bay Area where Clinton previously had led by 9 points. In “other Southern California” the race is statistically even.

There is a gender gap, with women favoring Clinton 40% to 27% while Obama receives 44% of the male vote to Clinton’s 31%.

The candidates split the white, non-Hispanic vote. In the 20% of the electorate expected to be Latino, Clinton is favored by 52% to Obama’s 19%, but a full 20% were undecided. In a small sample, but with interpretable results, Obama had the support of 55% of black voters and Clinton 19%. Obama might have an edge in “Asian/other” voters, but the sample size is small here and the numbers close.

Obama has a strong lead with voters under 29 and Clinton has a strong lead with voters 65 and older. But also in these youngest and oldest voting groups are the largest undecided percentages of voters. For voters between 30 and 64, the middle aged cohorts, Obama’s lead is within the margin of error and is basically tied.

Obama has a strong lead amongst liberals and Clinton has strong leads amongst conservative voters with middle-of-the-road voters leaning towards Clinton.