|
There has been much speculation about how well Obama WILL do on Tsunami Tuesday, and also about how well he NEEDS to do, to remain a candidate with a good chance at the nomination:
Here are several scenarios:
SCENARIO ONE: Obama more or less performs as the polls show him today, relative to HRC, without any surprise surge, and not according to the strongest (eg Zogby) predictions. He carries say -- Alaska, Idaho, CO, KS, ND, Ga, Ala,(maybe Del), CT and, of course, Ill. Hillary carries all of the other 12 and maybe Del.
SCENARIO TWO: Obama comes on stronger than polls show him now, and the figures from pollsters like Zogby (now outlying) turn out to be relatively "prophetic". Obama also carries several more states, possibly Tenn, possibly Utah (one poll showed him ahead, but doubtful),possibly MO, possibly Minnesota, and possibly Arizona and/or New Mexico BUT NOT CAL (however close). Say a total of three or four out of this list:
SCENARIO THREE: A rout for HRC, Obama carries majority of states including the big prize: CA.
Most of us would agree that scenario three would make Obama the front runner. I would argue that scenario TWO would give him a leg up, and much more than is suggested on DU, especially as the press would have to describe his showing as "surprisingly strong". These two conclusions are sharpened by the fact that, as Jefferson_Dem noted in a recent post (maybe someone could provide the link), there are a lot of races, nicely spaced in time so Obama can run stronger, in the month and a half after Tsuanami Tuesday. By this analysis, even scenario one (which would appear in the press as a stronger performance by HRC than Obama, but AS EXPECTED) would leave Obama a reasonably good chance. Only an alternative scenario, one with a (sometimes touted by HRC's swarm of "supporters" on DU) "Hillary Clinton surge" since the last debate, which some have specifically claimed. In that scenario, polls that show the race tightening (most of them) are wrong, and HRC does better -- and is recognized in the press as gaining a 'surprisingly strong' finish.
I understand that press presentation and perception are not the beall and endall, but they are important, and do impact momentum, donations, etc.
So, what about my three scenario analysis, and the projected consequences. My view is that if Obama (as I hope) carries CA, and does at least as well elsewhere as poll trends suggest, OR if he follows scenario two WITHOUT carrying CA, HRC is in what the senior Bush dynast used to call "deep doo doo".
Well -- SPIN AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
