Are you Fired up? Prediction time!

[Perky]

Well reasoned predictions for Super Tuesday

EVERYONE should keep this in mind before overly prognosticating future results five John Edwards withdrawal from the race,

The rules for apportionment of Delegates are based on percentage of vote at the Congressional District level


1. If you do not get 15% in CD you get nothing (both candidate will meet this threshold each and every time)
2. If you get between 15% and 40% you get a pro-rata portion (that is going to be very rare in a two person race)
3. If two candidates get over 40% they split the delegates evenly (This is going to happen nearly all the time)
4. If you get more than 59% you get bonus Delegates. (my suspicion is that Obama has a leg up here in Urban areas and (as evidenced by SC) areas of the deep south)

Not all districts have the same number of delegates within the state. Apparently the DNC allots according to Dem votes in the last presidential election. The state then allots to the Congressional Districts based on how blue the district went in the last election. It thus stands to reason that urban districts are going to have slightly greater quantities with in a state when compared to non-urban. So if both Obama and Clinton get over 40%, he would stand to get the extra delegate if the total quantity of delegates is an odd number.... Otherwise they are likely to split the delegates nearly every time.

In analyzing the Polling data here is how I think it is going to shake out In terms of Delegates NOT in terms of Popular Vote

Solid Wins for Clinton

Tennessee
Arkansas
Oklahoma

Marginal wins for Clinton

New York (she is leading in statewide polls...but the District Density and recent media endorsements in Metro New York area favor Obama in terms of Delegates.)
Toss-ups Where Clinton has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference

None


Not enough Data to make a call

Utah
Delaware
American Samoa
Democrats Abroad
Alaska


Toss-ups Where Obama has Momentum but too late to make a real delegate difference

New Jersey
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Missouri
Minnesota
Arizona
California


Marginal wins for Obama

Idaho
New Mexico
Colorado




Solid Wins for Obama

Georgia
Alabama
Illinois
Kansas
North Dakota

Overall, I think Obama is going to increase his Delegate lead among (voted delegates) because he is going win far bigger in Illinois the Clinton is going win in NY. The larger delegate count in NY is probably offset by the number of smaller sates that Hillary is not seriously contesting (Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota) Everything else pretty much washes out to a tie.

The real victory is going to be "momentum" because the pundtidiscussion is going to foces a lot on how mush Obama caught up.

[helderheid]

1. Dired up! Ack, you fixed it already....

:hi:

[Perky]

2. yep

but thanks for the quick kick

[Perky]

3. yep

but thanks for the quick kick

[helderheid]

4. my pleasure!

[shayes51]

5. I don't think Obama is going to win Alabama.

[Perky]

6. Is that the only one you disagree with?

[Sybbis]

7. I think the OP has been hitting the super-keg...

a little early today. Hillary Clinton will, most likely, clean up on Tuesday. I'm not counting Obama out completely but his "mo" isn't enough to break her leads in the majority of Super Tuesday contests.

Should be an interesting night, that's for sure.

[thoughtcrime1984]

8. Clean up? Nah

Neither one will "clean up" Tuesday, but I do hope that Hil's camp thinks like you do!

[Perky]

9. I am happy to discuss... where you think I am wrong

[ZinZen]

10. Unless there is data that specifies otherwise

I think Massachusetts is more in the Hillary column and NM more of a toss up.

[Perky]

11. on NM and MA

the only poll I am aware of is a New Mexico State University poll which puts him up 48/42 plus I have readseveral sources that suggest that Obama's field ot rganization is very solid in caucus states.


In Massachussets, it is certaincly confounding....The polls are asying hillary is up and they they have a dead heat.



Based on the cact that he has such strong endorsements from Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick. I think that give him enough momentum to tie the race in knots there

[NC_Nurse]

12. Kick!

I think he's got the momentum and I would argue that Connecticut might go his way. :)

[Perky]

13. Hope so.

[ShortnFiery]

14. Fired Up! Yes, it will be a long, hard fought battle - but - we will prevail! GO OBAMA!

:patriot: :applause: :patriot:

;)

[Laelth]

15. I love some good, solid number-crunching.

Nice work, and thanks! :toast:

:dem:

-Laelth

[creeksneakers2]

16. Very interesting idea about how the delegates will split

I don't know about how you divided up states.

[Perky]

17. The wierd thing is that it is hard to find election results by Congrssional District

Results are rolled up to the county. So you actually have to figure out a way to roll up precincts to the Congressional District which migt include the whole county or bisect it.


It can be done with some work but it is definitely a lot of work.