Cogitamus: "Breathless reports of a tied race in California are getting out of hand"

[bidenista]

In the spirit of reaching across the mini-aisle, I offer this to our resident Obama fans:

Expectations management

These breathless reports of a tied race in California are getting out of hand, as are those suggesting Obamantum will sweep him to a delegate victory on Super Tuesday. Everybody needs to get a grip here ... Hillary Clinton had a twenty-four point lead among people who had actually cast ballots as recently as ten days ago. To over come that sort of head start, Obama would have to have had an unprecedented GOTV operation in California, and all indications are that while he has a large number of committed volunteers, there aren't enough to effectively canvass the state.

What's more, unless Barack Obama picks up 80% of the undecided voters nationwide, the most likely scenario for Obama still involves a number of narrow losses, while Clinton racks up big wins in states with more delegates. The bear case, on the left, leaves Clinton with a 150+ delegate lead, while the bull case, on the right, gives Obama only a 50 delegate lead for the day (and a 65 delegate lead overall). Neither campaign is likely to land a knockout blow on Tuesday, though Clinton can definitely "stun" the Team Obama.

http://www.cogitamusblog.com/2008/02/expectations-ma.html

[BootinUp]

1. Hoping for the stunner... GOMAMA.

[earthlover]

9. Do you have a need for maternal things? just askin'

does hillary appeal to freudian longings for the mother?

I would be friggin embarrassed to say gomama for any candidate I would support. this is friggin gross.

[ursi]

2. poll postings from both sides are pointless ...remember the 2004 presidential election?

[ErnestoG]

6. I do. And Hillary is shaping up as Kerry 2008.

[earthlover]

10. Kerry is the president now, yes?

[Kittycat]

3. One question, one comment

Question... Where are they releasing the early poll results fro california at?

Comment... I would think early voting would weigh heavily to Clinton, given that 1) things polled differently at that time. 2) Older people (more in her demographic) are more likely to vote early. Obama always makes his surge on voting day.

ETA: I still think she'll win popular vote, but I think they'll be close in awarding of delegates - enough to nearly if not cancel each other out.

[BeyondGeography]

4. The election's over; we won it already

Haven't we been hearing that for the past year?

[earthlover]

11. yup...hillary is inevitable.. resistance is futile.... yadayada... resistance is futile...

[Lucinda]

5. Thanks! That was interesting.

[Hill_YesWeWill]

7. Thanks! nt

[The Delegates]

8. The delegates are gonna split right down the middle

It'll be a damn near 50-50 split, which makes the state and the actual % winner meaningless. Would actually be seen as a victory for Obama.