Breaking: Obama expands lead on Clinton in California (Reuters). Leads by 6 now.

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0345866120080204

[Alexander]

1. Hopefully this will translate into an Obama win on Tuesday.

I've grown to expect the worst these days. But we'll see.

[bluestateguy]

2. And some HillBot will come back with another poll in, 5...4....3....2...1

nt

[joshcryer]

9. I expect these polls to reflect reality.

MSM coverage of Obama has been remarkable.

[tammywammy]

3. I don't put much stock into polls

But it does bring a smile to my face to see positive news. :)

[Big Blue Marble]

4. Something big may be happening.

"The momentum is with Obama," said pollster John Zogby.
"If this trend continues it could be a very big night for him."


http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN03458661200...


This is great news.

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[HughMoran]

5. Not only is that surprising, but Romney is beating McCain by 8% in California

These polls are changing so fast I almost can't believe them until the votes are cast on Tuesday!

[UALRBSofL]

12. CNN reported McCain was ahead by at least 10%earlier today

So who knows what's really going on.

[HughMoran]

22. Yeah, and there are CA polls showing Clinton up 9 that aren't very old

I think either the polls are crazy, or Obama and Romney are going to be the big "surprises" on Tuesday.

[Drunken Irishman]

44. Most polls have Obama up, or tied with her.

[Hutzpa]

57. We have to be careful how

excited we with these polls, there is something
funny about how fast they changed during the day,
take a look at this;

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/proclinton_push_poll.php

[candice]

64. When did you last get polled? I never have, no one I know ever has.

[jackson_dem]

6. If Obama wins California he will probably be considered the nominal "winner" of Super Tuesday

[joshcryer]

14. Yes, but if Hillary were to somehow win, they would return to the delegate count stuff.

Even though they'll likely both be tied coming out of Super Tuesday, they'll say "Obama won CA."

If Obama loses CA they'll say "Obama won half the delegates."

It's all about manipulating the race.

[jackson_dem]

23. Yup that will be the Obamite claims

Super Tuesday will be a split decision but I think the media will crown the winner of California as the nominal "winner" of Super Tuesday. New York and Illinois basically offset each other. Then we get to New Jersey and Georgia and they should also offset each other. The only other big state where neither has home court advantage is Massachusetts and that will likely be in Hillary's column, but Obama will win most of the small states. California seems to be the only thing the media can latch onto for guidance on who to declare the "winner."

[Hippo_Tron]

40. Obama was down double digits in California just two weeks ago

I'll admit that if Obama wins California it will be over-hyped by the media because they over-hype everything. But being a frontrunner is partly about momentum and if Obama wins California it will be a showing of his momentum.

Remember that Hillary tied Obama delegates wise in New Hampshire but it gave her a HUGE boost because she proved the polls wrong.

[joshcryer]

49. You don't understand, there was no "momentum" until SC.

And once SC hit the media went with it full tilt, slamming the Clintons on all sorts of BS.

[Hekate]

51. Calif has 441 Democratic delegates, assigned proportionately. It's hard to "overhype" that number.

I'm just sayin'

Hekate

[Hippo_Tron]

52. But if it's close they will get virtually the same number of delegates

Still the one that hits 51% will be declared the "BIG WINNER". Yea it'll be overhyped but Obama will deserve some hype for being able to beat Hillary in California or any other state where she had a huge lead before a few weeks ago.

[joshcryer]

53. No, you don't get it. If Obama wins by 51% he's the big winner. If Hillary does...

...then she's still doing OK and the "delegates are split." It's all about perception. No matter how it goes Hillary wouldn't be able to have any significant momentum out of a win in CA. Not unless she did it via large margins.

[Hippo_Tron]

58. I agree with you 100% that will be the narrative

And frankly that's the danger with expectations. Hillary sold herself as inevitable and did so partly based on her early poll numbers on February 5th states, particularly California.

I remember for quite some time back (before Iowa), many DUers were speculating that the race would tighten after Iowa to how the race tightened in 2004 after the inevitable frontrunner Dean lost Iowa. We were mocked by Hillary supporters saying that it was completely different because Dean never broke 40% in the national polls and didn't have the substantial lead in the other states like Hillary does. Hillary was inevitable and there was absolutely no chance that Obama could catch up even if he did win Iowa.

The fact is that after Iowa when Obama started campaigning in other states, the race tightened drastically and the more people got to know Obama the more they started to like him. Hillary made the mistake of setting her expectations far too high by declaring herself inevitable and now Obama just has to come out even on Super Tuesday to make it a win.

[joshcryer]

62. I just hope for your sake the MSM doesn't drop you like it did Dean and Kerry.

If you can continue to get this unrelenting support then there's no way in fucking hell Obama can concievably lose any competition.

[grantcart]

65. one big difference is that Obama is bringing in a million $ a day

and he is not even the nominee. He can buy alot of exposure with that

[usregimechange]

7. Yeah!

[loveangelc]

8. omg.omg.omg.omg.omg.

I cannot listen to this. Can't get hopes up...

~gobama~

[Drunken Irishman]

13. I can't do it, either. I'm so fucking nervous.

I don't remember ever being this nervous.

[mahina]

19. Calm and encouraging, no fear baby. Be the love.

:hug:

[sab3rX]

46. I know exactly what you mean; the higher my hopes are, the more afraid I am

[loveangelc]

48. I'm hoping sooooooooo badly he takes CA. I think he can do it.

I just don't want to believe in these polls too much (especially because of Romney being up...)

[grantcart]

55. I am taking work off until Wed

[Big Blue Marble]

15. loveangelc we have to hope.

Remember we are hopemongers.


GoBama!

[Cha]

27. We are the

Anti-Fear Mongers!

[loveangelc]

42. Oh I'm hoping beyond hope right now lol.

[Big Blue Marble]

45. Me too! n/t

[MadBadger]

10. Hes also up 5 in MO and tied in NJ

[David Zephyr]

11. And this poll was before Maria Shriver endorsed Obama in L.A. today.

Also, Obama up over the Clintons in Missouri by 5 points. His lead keeps widening.

Great news! K&R.

[my3boyz]

16. Thank you so much

for posting this. These polls are all over the place so I will try not to get my hopes up...

[David Zephyr]

25. Zogby is a brilliant pollster. He picks up trends better than anyone.

There is definitely a tide swelling here in California. Shriver's surprise endorsement will be in every paper in California tomorrow.

[GoldieAZ49]

29. That could be the cover story of the LA Times

and all the other CA Newspapers, morning radio shows

[sandnsea]

17. We have to do the work

I hope everybody will sign up online to make phone calls the next two days because none of this matters if we don't get people to the polls.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

18. I wonder what affect the absentee ballots will have

I heard on the radio today that quite a few of the votes (up to 40%?) had already been cast some time ago in California. I'm not a Clinton supporter but just aware that even though Obama may be catching up in present poles, that votes cast by a lot of people at a time when the race wasn't that tight may also factor in.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. I think the number is 25%.

One poll had counted the absentee votes in their poll, which had Obama up 1.

[MadBadger]

24. A new Suffolk poll has Obama up one and included absentee voters.

[joshcryer]

34. How did they poll absentee voters?

[MadBadger]

36. I dont know the exact method, but out of the 700 surveyed, 140 said they had voted already.

[joshcryer]

41. They would be a smaller subset, 140 absentee isn't statistically significant.

They need to do a poll on absentee voters only.

[candice]

61. Not everyone votes on who is "winning" according to the media...

...some people vote for the person who will be the best leader for the country.

It's the sheep who can't think for themselves who do otherwise.

[ForRusty]

21. At this stage of the game honestly these polls aren't to trustworthy. The real show is on Tuesday.

And I can't wait! We have two great candidates and I'm ready to step behind either of them. However, I don't think Tuesday will flat out decide it. If so, hurray, lets them start campaigning effectively now.

[Thrill]

26. I would like to believe this but Romney leading McCain like that

has me skeptical

[woolldog]

31. I'm supporting Obama, but

I'll only believe it when I see it. Remember what happened in New Hampshire?


btw, Hi everyone! new member here...

[loveangelc]

38. welcome. and im skeptical too because of the romney thing too.

but yeah, i kind of feel ca is going more and more toward obama's favor...

[Metric System]

28. Amazing! Especially given the resistance Obama has faced from the MSM & political establishment!

:sarcasm:

[candice]

63. MSM wouldn't want Bama to be up against McCain would they?

When Edwards and Hillary were confronting him on his uncommitted "present" votes in the S.C. debate, Bama looked as if he'd never been subject to any heat before. Bet Rove was smelling blood.

[TeamJordan23]

30. James Carville said on MTP that a loss in CA could be devastating for Hillary.

I am still cautiously optomistic for Barack.

[GoldieAZ49]

32. Barrrrrrrack the VOTE!!!!

[MadBadger]

33. I wonder if this Romney lead is legit or not. I hope it is. Maybe this is the conservative backlash

[woolldog]

39. Yeah

Romney has some very good commercials airing here in California bashing Hilary Clinton for having no experience running anything, not even a corner store he says (with people laughing in the background at that remark).

I was thrilled to see them because the HRC bashing undoubtedly helps Obama as well as Romney! Romney is doing the dirty work for him.

[The_Casual_Observer]

35. Up 30 points in the last week? Sounds like bullshit to me.

[JackORoses]

37. sounds like Big Mo to everyone else

[joshcryer]

43. Oh, you'd be surprised at the power of the MSM. :)

[Big Blue Marble]

47. You are Johnny one note, aren't you. n/t

[joshcryer]

50. You can call me Joshy One Note. :)

[psychopomp]

54. As California goes, so goes the nation

...I hope!

[ariesgem]

56. Great News!

[ShadowLiberal]

59. I'm hopeful, but I don't know if we can trust the polls

I'm hopeful, but look at how wrong the polls have been this year already.

Obama was supposed to win New Hampshire by like 10 points, but he lost by 3.
Obama was supposed to win South Carolina by like 10 points, but he blew Hillary out of the water beating her by 27 points.

I've seen polls for states, and nationally, that show that at one point a nearly dead heat with only like 3 points between the two, and then the same day a poll conducted in the same time frame saying Hillary is up by like 9 there.

[candice]

60. These polls are SO exciting. Bama leads by 95% now!

[krkaufman]

66. Ditto other post. Ghosts of run-up to New Hampshire primary. n/t