Armstead
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Mon Feb-04-08 10:09 AM
Original message |
A (kinda dumb) technical question about the primary results |
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I realize this is a basic question, but I think we lose sight of the forest for the trees sometimes.
Tomorrow, how will the vote results correlate to delegates, in terms of overall numbers?
Lets say, for example, Candidate A wins a lot of states by narrow margins, like 47 v. 49 percent? Would the actual delegate count reflect that closeness, or would it be considered a blowout?
Or, will it be similar to the Electoral College, in which the significance of each state determines the outcome, like one big state offsetting a lot of smaller states?
Basically, I'm wondering how much of a make-or-break tomorrow actually will be, assuming the main candidates end up being fairly close in the overall totals?
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Buzz Clik
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Mon Feb-04-08 10:11 AM
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1. It's "proportional" sort of. |
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There are delegates voted in at a district level, state level, and the super delegates. It's complicated and defies any prediction.
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CreekDog
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Mon Feb-04-08 10:12 AM
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2. Yes, close margins will mean close awarding of delegates |
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Each state awards in its own way, but they are all proportional. Something like 1652 delegates are awarded on 2/5, 2000 or so are needed for the nomination.
Even a convincing win for one side might result in 950 delegates versus 700 for the loser which means it's hardly settled the next day.
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LSdemocrat
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Mon Feb-04-08 10:20 AM
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3. All Democratic primaries are proportional by congressional district |
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One thing to keep in mind is that delegates are awarded proportionally by Congressional district, so that a candidate could rack up a big percentage in an isolated district that could throw off an analysis of just looking at the statewide results, for example:
Assume a 30 delegate state, with 3 districts, so 10 delegates per district.
Statewide: Candidate A 48% - Candidate B 52%
District 1: Candidate A 80% - Candidate B 20% District 2: Candidate A 40% - Candidate B 60% District 3: Candidate A 40% - Candidate B 60%
Keep in mind the number of Democratic voters may not be even across districts
Under this scenario, Candidate A would get 16 delegates (8+4+4) while Candidate B would get 14 delegates (2+6+6)
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Armstead
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Mon Feb-04-08 10:25 AM
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OKNancy
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Mon Feb-04-08 10:26 AM
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5. I can tell you a little about Oklahoma |
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There are 47 delegates total, which includes the super-delegates The primary vote is proportional, but no delegates will be given unless they hit 15% ( Edwards and Richardson are still on the ballot ) Polls show Obama at 19%, so who knows.
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DU
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Thu Apr 25th 2024, 05:39 AM
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