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I predict Hillary will win California by 53% to 47%

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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:16 AM
Original message
I predict Hillary will win California by 53% to 47%
And you?
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Egnever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
1. I think thats probably pretty close
I hope to be pleasantly surprised though. The early votes worry me.
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. I hope I'm wrong, but it don't think I'll be this time.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. I can tell you that I know 3 absentee votes who have already voted for Obama
one of them is me

No one can predict what the early voters will do.

The election in California will be determined by the independent, undecided, and young


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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
2. 6 points. that's about right
considering the almost 50% who voted early and weren't affected by any 'surge' in support for Obama
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Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. That 50% stat has been DEBUNKED...so stop posting it like it's real
I say she wins by 3-5 points.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. I think the early vote IS 'about' 50%, so keep your scolding to yourself
it butted up against that number last time
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KingofNewOrleans Donating Member (650 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:22 AM
Response to Original message
6. 45-42 Obama
polls do make an effort to capture those who vote early and incorporate that into their results
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sellitman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:23 AM
Original message
I predict another poll at 5pm n/t
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RoadRage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
8. Yup.. Clinton gets this one by a NH margin..
Thanks to early voters that didn't give him a chance to talk.

Oh well, thems the brakes when you're the underdog!
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stillrockin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
9. I predict a riot.
:crazy:
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
10. I think that is probably right. But Obama will still get lots of delegates.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
11. No - the margin may be good but Edwards/Other may pull
Edited on Mon Feb-04-08 11:31 AM by featherman
5-6% due to early voting. I know several Edwards voters who mailed in their ballot before the drop out and others who will vote for Edwards, Kucinich, Biden, or other regardless

Maybe 48-45% Clinton

I read somewhere that if the two leading candidates that pull over 40% the delegate allocation is split but then the numerical winner is awarded a bonus of 11 delegates.
I think that's how it works
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
12. I don't like how that adds up to 100%. I'd bet HRC, 51-47.
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Le Taz Hot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
13. Probably about right.
Art Torres has been doing everything in his power to help her along. And Obama has not gone after the Latino vote.
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frylock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Feb-04-08 11:38 AM
Response to Original message
14. patriots 98|giants -4
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