CNN: Nat'l Super Tuesday Poll shows dramatic Dem shift (Clinton loses "comfortable lead" over Obama)

[Amerigo Vespucci]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton is losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on the eve of critical Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses. The two are virtually tied in Monday's survey, which shows the New York senator has lost a comfortable national lead she's held for months over Obama and other rivals.

The survey also shows Arizona Sen. John McCain as the clear Republican front-runner.

Obama, who trounced Clinton in January's South Carolina primary, garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats in Monday's poll, while Clinton trailed by just three points, a gap well within the survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

"Coming out of his overwhelming victory in South Carolina and followed quickly by his Kennedy family endorsements, Obama clearly has the momentum in this campaign," said Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/national.poll/

[krkaufman]

1. Obama 49%, Clinton 46% -- normally, the media would say Obama is winning.

The media is trying to spin this for Clinton. Why is the media pushing Hillary Clinton on us?!?! </sarcasm>

Tuesday should be interesting. Unfortunately for Obama, polls like this may work against him. He'll now be expected to win over Hillary, as in New Hampshire, rather than even coming close being a victory.

[Mme. Defarge]

2. I believe that Hillary

has been the anointed one since the 2000 election. I predict that whatever happens in the primaries, she will be the nominee via the oh-so-undemocratic super delegate system.

Hope I'm wrong!

[krkaufman]

7. That would cause an immense s**tstorm within the Democratic Party ...

... and would guarantee a Democratic loss in November. If the superdelegates or Michigan & Florida delegates are used to overrule the democratically-chosen delegates, I predict a third-party run, mass defections or mass apathy in November. The same goes if superdelegates are used to overrule a Hillary nomination, and even using the Edwards delegates to "choose" a nominee may be problematic.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that one of the candidates crosses the majority threshold purely on pledged delegates. (And I'm keeping my toes crossed that it's Obama. While my eyes remain crossed that it's Gore or Edwards.)

[my3boyz]

3. I don't want them to say he is winning

I want them to downplay it. Before NH they were acting like he had the thing wrapped up. In addition to all of the crying footage and the women got pissed and voted for her. I want Obama to be the underdog. As Michelle Obama said, no matter what the polls say to make no mistake about it Obama is the underdog.

[krkaufman]

4. Exactly. The vote tomorrow is nowhere as important as the pre- and post-vote spin.

Obama's upward trend should not cast him as the leader; he remains the underdog in this race. And even if he has or takes the delegate lead, he remains the underdog.

To use a sports metaphor, taking from yesterday's game, did the NY Giants lose their underdog status in yesterday's Super Bowl when they took the lead, 10-7, with just under 4 minutes remaining? (hint: no!)

[Thrill]

6. Because the Repukes need Hillary to be the nominee

Not only for McCain but it will help them in the Congress races

[krkaufman]

9. We appear to be in agreement. Both in your analysis ...

... and in who appears to have been your 2004 preference.

[busymom]

5. MSM picks the candidate for us.

Oh...and I logged in to CNN's political tracker and bought some Hillary stock. My account was then mysteriously deleted by the media company. :shrug: Would it have been different if I had bought Obama stock? I tried to login later and it said that the account had been closed and to contact them if it was in error. Of course, no response.

[krkaufman]

10. Let's not pretend that either Hillary or Obama were mistreated by the media ...

... to the degree that ALL the other Democratic candidates were. How much attention did Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Richarson, Kucinich & Gravel receive?

[Mme. Defarge]

11. So why do you think

that the Republican "dark horse" candidates were not marginalized by the MSM to the same extent as those on the Democratic side? Was it the anti-corporate message of Kucinich & Edwards, or are the Clintons somehow behind this?

[krkaufman]

13. I do think that there is corporate meddling in coverage ...

... but both Clinton and Obama have received far more coverage than other Democratic candidates, and their relative difference in coverage is neglible, by comparison. (i.e. it is silly for Obama supporters to complain of media hyping of Hillary, and vice versa; certain stories and narratives have been pushed for each candidate, both positive and negative, but the net difference is nil)

[Scurrilous]

8. K & R

:kick:

[Adelante]

12. But how could this be? Obama "garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats"

:wow:

We know Democrats only want Hillary, don't we, since we heard it on DU? ;)

[tabasco]

14. It makes it sound like Hillary is still leading.

What's up with that?