NJSecularist
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Mon Feb-04-08 12:57 PM
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New Ohio Poll: Hillary: 42, Obama: 19 |
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http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/03/POLL03.ART_ART_02-03-08_A1_T197O4N.html?sid=101Barack Obama has convinced Iowa, South Carolina and even Teddy Kennedy.
But the Illinois senator has yet to make the sale in Ohio.
A new Dispatch Poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds more than a 2-to-1 lead over Obama among Ohio Democrats.Will Hillary squander this lead too?
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quinnox
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Mon Feb-04-08 12:58 PM
Response to Original message |
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Hillary is leading big time there, it will depend on super tuesday if Obama can eat into that lead or if it is maintained by Hillary.
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Renew Deal
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
6. It might not matter by then. |
OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
27. It will matter in the GE. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation |
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Ohio is a huge battleground state. Don't assume Clinton's support would transfer to Obama should he win the nom. And don't assume independents/swing voters would support him here either.
Ohio isn't like California.
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liberalnurse
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
18. She campaigned here pre-06 for many Democrats here... |
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and they won....She loves Ohio Democrats and Ohio loves the Clintons.
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featherman
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Mon Feb-04-08 12:59 PM
Response to Original message |
2. That's a tall hill to climb... we shall see |
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Edited on Mon Feb-04-08 01:01 PM by featherman
I'd be more concerned if Clinton was polling above 50% than at 42% with such an enormous undecided (39%), nearly equalling her support. Read into it what you will
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Renew Deal
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
7. Obama has polled terribly in Ohio |
featherman
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
14. Keith number (MOE + Undecided) is what? 42-44%. Early days yet |
OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
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Probably a lot of people relate him to Ken Blackwell, who is widely disliked here and has a similar persona as Obama.
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pgh_dem
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Mon Feb-04-08 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #31 |
36. Probably? Probably a Democratic Senator and candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination... |
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is "probably" seen as similar to Republican Ken Blackwell, who in dual roles as campaign co-Chair for Bush/Cheney 04 and Ohio SOS did everything in his power to frustrate the ability of Democratic voters to register, to vote, to have their votes counted, and to legally and completely recount them?
Holy shit.
Gotta let me know *exactly* what they have in common.
Probably, my ass.
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Blue_State_Elitist
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Mon Feb-04-08 12:59 PM
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They haven't been subjected to Obama's magical message of change and hope yet.
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goldcanyonaz
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:00 PM
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4. The kool-aid brigade will be coming to town soon. |
cd3dem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
29. one has to wonder where the republicans are sending their donations? |
Unsane
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:00 PM
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5. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus = Obama country |
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I doubt he's even run an ad there yet.
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The Delegates
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:00 PM
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8. Ohio is a month away and Obama has done little campaigning there |
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As we have seen - where Obama campaigns, Obama does well.
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Tom Rinaldo
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:01 PM
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9. Why is Obama so weak in Ohio? |
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That is worrisome for Novemeber if he wins the nomination. Obama is doing better in New York than in Ohio according to this very recent poll.
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MadBadger
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:02 PM
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MadBadger
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
11. Obama just started his campaign there. |
OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
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For the last several months, Edwards polled very well in Ohio, has high favorability ratings. His suspension of his campaign has left a large percentage of people with no clear choice.
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Barack_America
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:02 PM
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As a Michigander, this only tells me that what I've always believed about Ohio... |
riqster
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:31 PM
Response to Original message |
23. Buckeyes can choke Wolverines |
Clarkansas
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:02 PM
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12. How many delegates will Hillary get from OH on Tuesday? |
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Has Obama spent much time there?
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debatepro
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:04 PM
Response to Reply #12 |
15. They don't vote on tuesday. |
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He will have plenty of time to campaign there.
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Meshuga
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:03 PM
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13. The primary is in March |
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There is still a lot of time until the election in Ohio. It is a hill for Obama to climb but he can do it.
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book_worm
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:05 PM
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OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
19. March 4 - 162 delegates n/t |
scheming daemons
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:18 PM
Response to Original message |
20. What we've seen is that Hillary's number stays basically static... |
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She probably WILL get between 42 and 48 in Ohio.
The number that moves is almost ALWAYS the challenger.
The first rule of political campaigns is that if an "incumbent" is not polling above or at 50%, then they are in trouble. People have already made up their mind about the "incumbent", so their number is usually at or near its ceiling. As they find out about a challenger, his/her number moves.
Because of Hillary's name recognition, she is the "incumbent" for all intents and purposes in this race.
Look at her California numbers... people are calling it a collapse, but it really isn't. She was at 45-ish a month ago and is STILL there. But Obama has gone from 28 to 45-ish.
She isn't bleeding support, but Obama is picking up almost ALL of the undecideds and former Edwards supporters.
Obama's 19 in Ohio will be double that once he starts campaigning there. The question is whether Hillary can hold him off, because she's not likely to go up much.
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VolcanoJen
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:21 PM
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21. I'm in Ohio, I'm plugged in campaign stuff... |
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... and nobody's campaigning here, not yet. That will all change on Wednesday, I imagine, and I hope so, because I'd like to see the candidates!
But, I fully expect those numbers to tighten up once the campaign begins in earnest in Ohio. I would be shocked if Hillary could come out on top in southwestern Ohio alone.
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Connie_Corleone
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
24. Yep. I just signed up to volunteer locally here. |
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If Obama wins big Super Tuesday, his poll numbers will rise here, pluse he'll be campaigning here too.
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OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
26. Clinton is campaigning here |
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Big Dog was in Cleveland last week. He's always been very popular with Dems in NE Ohio.
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VolcanoJen
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Mon Feb-04-08 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #26 |
34. Oh, I was speaking about the candidates. |
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Is Hillary making appearances in NE Ohio?
I did misspeak a little before... Obama was in Cincinnati for a fundraiser last March, but no public rallies or anything of that nature yet.
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Thrill
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:22 PM
Response to Original message |
22. This is another that will change when he actually visits stay |
grantcart
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:51 PM
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25. are there any other polls in Ohio. this looks a little odd |
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with JE at 19 % and Obama 20 after JE drops out.
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OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
28. Its as reliable as any |
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Obama doesn't have a lot of support in Ohio, never has.
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VolcanoJen
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Mon Feb-04-08 08:30 PM
Response to Reply #28 |
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You need to spend an hour in downtown Cincinnati during lunch before spewing such absolutisms. :-)
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Joanne98
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Mon Feb-04-08 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #25 |
40. There's a lot of JE fans here. |
Didereaux
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Mon Feb-04-08 01:57 PM
Response to Original message |
30. Not to worry- The Oprah &Teddy Show will bring light to the deluded! |
Hippo_Tron
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Mon Feb-04-08 02:02 PM
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32. Remind me what Obama was polling in California a month ago |
VolcanoJen
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Mon Feb-04-08 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #32 |
moosen
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Mon Feb-04-08 03:54 PM
Response to Original message |
35. wow, Ohio is Clinton Country! |
OzarkDem
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Mon Feb-04-08 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #35 |
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Bill Clinton always made it a practice to campaign here frequently. He got more votes here than most Dem presidential candidates in recent history.
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stillcool
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Mon Feb-04-08 04:16 PM
Response to Original message |
37. a lot can happen in a month.. |
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from same article.. Although Ohioans have seen little firsthand of the intensely competitive 2008 presidential campaign, that almost certainly will change if the race stretches beyond this week's Super Tuesday contests in multiple states across the country. ----------------------------- Obama supporters, who held their first Ohio organizational meeting yesterday in Columbus, say he will make enormous gains once he starts campaigning here. And the poll only reflects partisan registered voters; Obama has benefited from a surge among independents in several early-primary states (as has McCain). http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/03/POLL03.ART_ART_02-03-08_A1_T197O4N.html?type=rss&cat=&sid=101
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Hoof Hearted
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Mon Feb-04-08 04:29 PM
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38. March the 4th? That's an eternity away. |
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I'm pretty sure we'll have it worked out by then.
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