Quite honestly, I believe Clinton will beat Obama in all the important states

[cali]

tomorrow. I think the polls are a lot like NH. I'm not going to speculate on the why beyond noting that she's more familiar in uncertain times, but I just don't see Obama pulling out a win.

I think she'll win by 55-45 in CA and close to that in MA, CT and NJ. I also think she'll take Missouri and TN, Arkansas, OK, NY by 15 pts, KS.

Obama will take CO, Illinois by 25, Georgia, Alabama, Idaho, HI. I know I'm missing a couple.

In the end, I think she'll come out with 150 more delegates than he does, and that's not the end of course, but if I'm right, it is a sign that she'll be the nominee.

[vi5]

1. I tend to agree....

I just think that the lure of the familiar and the comfortable is going to overtake people at the last minute. It's ultimately what I think led to Bush being re-elected. Yes I know, voter suppression, shenanigans, etc. I still think in the end people wanted comfort and what they knew and what they were familiar with. Change is scary to people.

[busymom]

2. as a Clinton supporter,

I would love to hope that this will happen...but...I don't think it will. :( I'll support whomever gets the nominee, but I do feel a little broken up (I know, I know....waaaah :eyes: ) that I don't think Clinton will win the nomination. It seems more like an American Idol contest than a primary race this time around....

[joshcryer]

4. I feel very much the same way.

I don't consider this an issues race but more of a looks race, but that's how American politics have always been.

[VolcanoJen]

23. Isn't that interesting?

I feel as though it has been the most substantive campaign of my lifetime. Not like American Idol at all. Enlightening, transformative is how I see it.

May the best Democrat win! And may we all live to fight another day. :hug:

[kerry-is-my-prez]

44. I don't hear a lot of people talking issues. Just personalities and "buzzwords."

"change" "inspiring," etc.

[joshcryer]

3. I tend to disagree, on the basis that Obama's overall support is increasing at an amazing rate.

Each daily tracking poll puts him ahead. While women voters will come out in extraoridinarily large numbers (as in NH and NV), I think that the youth and independent vote can cause an upset.

It's going to be close though, I think.

[scheming daemons]

5. Please let us know which states you consider "unimportant"....

...Pretty offensive statement there...

[cali]

14. Sorry. I didn't mean to offend. I often refer to my own state of Vermont

of which I am a fierce partisan, as unimportant in this regard. I was referring to delegate count, nothing else.

[magatte]

6. She has the name recognition and she is hard to stop...

We will try though. And try very hard.

[UALRBSofL]

11. Cali I have to disagree

I have been watching CNN and MSNBC and they are calling it a tie.

[TexasObserver]

7. Disagree.

[Unsane]

8. Pretty much agree.

I am still fighting the good fight, though. Go-Bama.

[AX10]

9. I hope she does get the nod.

[BootinUp]

10. Not sure here. nt

[Barack_America]

12. Cali, downplaying already?

:(

I guess I understand, but I'm going on faith right now.

[abburdlen]

13. she needs 200+

I think she needs to come out of Tuesday with a 200+ delegates lead to reverse Obama's momentum.

It's quite possible she'll be able to put him away but the likelihood is getting smaller and smaller.

[angie_love]

15. Cali I agree with you.

I don't want to get my hopes up for nothing. Also remember that there was no Hillary crying moment this time to galvanize women in droves for her. But you could be right, maybe this is NH all over again or maybe this is Iowa all over again. We'll know by tomorrow. I don't know how much a bradley affect could account for but thats always in the back of my mind.

[VolcanoJen]

24. I like to think of it as South Carolina all over again.

But maybe that's just me. :-)

[BeyondGeography]

16. That goes against virtually all the polling but if it makes you feel better, run with it

[Joe the Revelator]

17. For a person who claims to support one candidate....

you sure do a lot of shilling and cheerleading for his opponent.

[MonkeyFunk]

20. Some people can dispassionately

evaluate things without the filter of their own preference.

Some can't.

[Joe the Revelator]

25. and some just never have anything good to say about someone they support

Its interesting.

I can look at the same date she's looking at, and say, "Well damn, I love Obama's trend line, I think he may have a shot tomorrow. "

[MonkeyFunk]

30. yes

and that would be putting the data through the filter of your own preference.

You WANT him to do well.

Yes, his trend line is encouraging - but it doesn't indicate a win. Cali was honest and fair in her assessment.

[BootinUp]

Still not sure here

I think Obama has run a great campaign, but I think she has too. And I do think she is better prepared. Either way I will support the nominee happily.

[NJSecularist]

18. No offense, but this is a pretty transparent post

You "hope" that Obama will win most of the states tommorow, but you "believe" that Clinton will win most of the states. It's your way of lowering expectations. You don't want to be hurt come tommorow night.

I don't understand why you don't have more faith in Obam.

[VolcanoJen]

26. Because she probably went through 2004.

And remembers how much it hurt when Kerry lost/was robbed in the end.

It's understandable and I'm right there with her. I have hope, I have faith, I even have some polling. But the pain of that memory remains fresh and I think we are all trying to protect ourselves against it.

I'm not comparing Bush to Clinton at all... just, you know, when you really are 100% behind someone and the American people disagree with you, it smarts. It stings.

And it always feels better to be pleasantly surprised at a result! GObama!

[NJSecularist]

35. We've all been hurt over the last 8 years

Our voices haven't been heard.

[Alexander]

19. I think tomorrow will be a tie, with only a 50 delegate difference or so.

Since Obama has lots of rural support, I expect to see him pick up even more delegates in states with funny delegate rules.

[Neecy]

21. she won't take Kansas

Obama has a very strong ground organization here and she has none. Plus the Sebelius endorsement was big.

[VolcanoJen]

22. I'm with you.

I'd rather have low expectations than high ones. I think it's always been an uphill struggle for Obama.

Either way, we'll be alright. But maybe... just maybe, cali. :hug:

[Jed Dilligan]

27. CA feels closer to me

as long as the young'uns have figured out they need to be registered

[in_cog_ni_to]

28. Lowering expectations? I hope you're right. n/t

[MadBadger]

29. Cali, I dont agree with you this time. I think Obama will win CA, CT. He will lose NJ/MA by 3

[grantcart]

31. CA goes Obama and CT too

Except for NH which was very volatile for many reasons, Obama has been out performing the polls significantly

[HughMoran]

32. I think it will be a lot closer than that

Obama is really surging lately - he may get the majority of delegates tomorrow, or at least be within 50 or so.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4394534

[Auntie Bush]

33. If your prediction is true...how will you personally feel on a scale of 1-10?

1 being not so bad and 10 being very very miserable. Feel free to be more descriptive. You seem to have a good handle on this election and politics in general. I strongly hope you are correct.

[tekisui]

34. Cumulative, with current delegates included.

No Supers. The count on Wed. morning will be within 100, maybe 50 of each other. I don't know which way it will go, but it will be close.

[leftofthedial]

36. well, she has more corporate support and this IS "america"

so you're probably right.

[tishaLA]

37. I think you're right.

But the margin won't be 10% in most places.....more like 7%. And she will kill him in TN and OK.

[LordJFT]

38. you're wrong, wrong, wrong

[mondo joe]

39. Hm. I've been thinking 0bama will get the nom.

He seems to have the momentum.

I remain a Clinton supporter.

[The Delegates]

40. It's the delegates, stupid

Who cares what states she wins?

I'm telling you...and you guys will be calling me the prophet because I've been saying this...it will come down to who wins their home state by a larger margin.

[jackson_dem]

41. Hill will nominally "win" Super Tuesday

But Obama will come back with likely wins in Louisana (9th), and then take Maryland, D.C., on the 12th. Virginia should go to Hillary. The momentum can easily be back to Obama a week after Super Tuesday. This race isn't going to be over anytime soon.

[question everything]

42. I hope you are right but my impression has been the opposite

since all the reports are about Obama gaining on her and if she is ahead, within a statistical tie.

A lot has changed since IA and NH. Obama burst out in IA and since then has been filling huge arenas and with all the millions you cannot escape any ad of him. (Another reason for campaign finance reform; the others did not have a chance).

[kerry-is-my-prez]

43. Are you trying to lower expectations? I'm surprised that an Obama supporter would say that.

n/t

[Colobo]

45. Probably.