Is Obama's mo' enough? by kos

[cali]

Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 11:29:36 AM PST



<snip>

For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close, because the rest of the month is tailor made for Obama -- Louisiana primary and Nebraska and Washington caucuses on Saturday, February 9th, Maine caucuses on Sunday February 10, the Beltway Primary on February 12 -- DC, Maryland, and Virginia, and Hawaii and Wisconsin the next Tuesday, February 19. Of those states, only Maine might prove kind to Hillary (though we haven't had any polling since October of last year, when Hillary had a commanding 46-10 lead). The rest -- 563 delegates' worth of contests, will favor Obama heavily.

So Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that, then her plan B is to survive February to fight in March. On Tuesday the 4th, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont go to the polls. Vermont appears the most competitive right now, though that will change with a couple of weeks to campaign in these states. Winning Ohio, in particular will be important for propaganda purposes.

<snip>

Absolutely nothing for six weeks until Pennsylvania on April 22. Shit. Atrios and Booman may actually have a say this primary. How scary is that? And those 188 delegates will loom large. In fact, this is the only contest of significance (not including Guam) for an entire two months. It'll be huge.

After that, another two weeks pass until Tuesday May 6, when 218 delegates are at stake in Indiana and North Carolina. A week later, 39 delegates will be decided in West Virginia, a week after that on the 20th, Kentucky and Oregon, and that closes out May. Given the demographics of NC (heavily African American, lots of creative class thanks to the Research Triangle), that'll be Obama territory. Oregon Democrats are heavily "creative class", so lean that one toward Obama. Beats me about West Virginia and Kentucky, though West Virginia was competitive for Obama the last time it was polled in April of 2007, back when he wasn't competitive anywhere (he trailed 37-22, with Edwards getting 19), so that bodes well. Meanwhile, Kentucky has never been polled for the presidential contest, so who knows.

<snip>

So how will this shake out? Beats me. But task one is for Obama to survive this Tuesday. If he does, task two is for Hillary to survive this month. If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina.

Or to the convention.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/4/121157/2906/11/449513

[tekisui]

1. Bring it to NC!!!!! We'll give you Obama!

We never get any attention. I would rather Obama seal the deal before then. And I would rather one or the other win by March 4th, but I'll be happy to cast an important vote! I imagine if it makes it to NC, it will make it to the Convention.

[leftynyc]

2. Last week it was within 100

delegates. Now it's 200. Nothing like moving the goalposts to keep a candidate alive.

[cali]

3. really? kos said that? please link

unless you're simply conflating what other people have said, of course.

[leftynyc]

4. Not Kos

another Obama supporter (all the supporters for all the candidates are blending in for me at this point). Sorry I wasn't clearer about that.

[Barack_America]

5. When the mo' translates into record fundraising, crowds, voters and grassroots volunteers...

I would have to say "yes". If it isn't, the Democratic party needs to do some real soul searching.

[no name no slogan]

6. For Obama's sake, I hope your right

because in Iowa, after record fundraising, crowds and grassroots volunteers, Dean still finished 3rd.