Gallup -Clinton 47% Obama 43% /Super Tuesday States 49%-44%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

An analysis of the preferences of eligible Democratic primary voters in the 23 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses Tuesday finds results similar to the overall national results. Forty-nine percent of Democrats and (where eligible to participate) Democratic-leaning independents in Super Tuesday states favor Clinton for the nomination, while 44% choose Obama. This analysis is based on tracking data from Jan. 30-Feb. 3, all collected since John Edwards suspended his campaign.

The daily Democratic figures continue to suggest that the Democratic race is still quite fluid as voters in many states come to final voting decisions in the next day and a half.















http://www.gallup.com/poll/104125/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. EXCELLENT. She's ahead.

:bounce:

[mutant80]

3. Her Health Plan is AWESOME

Oh please please vote for Hillary.
I need good insurance!

[in_cog_ni_to]

14. I know it is! We pay so much freakin' money per month for our health insurance and it REALLY hurts

to do it, but we have to have it! If her plan can get implemented....EVERYONE WILL WIN!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Let's See

I hope so...

Gallup has huge samples...They have literally polled tens and tens of thousands of people this month...

[Drunken Irishman]

2. It's amazing how much ground Obama has gained in such a short time.

You can feel it, momentum is on his side.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. If Today's Poll Is Correct It Appears He's Stalled...

It's like an NBA game...Most analysts will tell you that teams that mount furious rallies from high double digit defecits end up running out of gas in the fourth quarter...

[Barack_America]

7. I suggest you check out the other polls that have come out today.

Two of the national polls actually have Obama in the lead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Rasmussen Has It 46%-40% And Gallup Has It 47%-43%

CNN has it 49%-46%

I'll go with Gallup...

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Right and Obama was down 11 in the Rasmussen poll yesterday.

Your point? That's the opposite of "stalling".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. If It Makes You Feel Better To Discount A Six Point Lead That;s Fine With Me

All I know is that of three nat'l polls that include yesterday's results Clinton is leading in two and Gallup is the gold standard of polling...

[Drunken Irishman]

21. I feel very good, thank you.

I'm glad you're confident, too. Because I believe a tight vote tomorrow benefits Obama over Clinton, since it will show that just a few weeks ago she was surging in most Super Tuesday states, had a 20 point lead nationally and now is barely hanging on. The great thing about this primary is it does not end after Tuesday. Unlike most elections, where JUST ENOUGH will work, things will go on and the momentum will continue to be with Obama if he's within 5 points of her in once safe Clinton states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I'm Looking Forward To Pennsylvania, Texas, And Ohio

~

[Drunken Irishman]

24. Hey I am too and I expect those states to do exactly what ever other state has done.

Tighten.

Clinton once led nearly every primary state by 15 or more points just a month ago. Over that span, it's anyone's race and if Obama comes out equal with Clinton tomorrow, I expect the same to happen in those three states, especially after Obama takes the next batch of primary states.

[Barack_America]

15. CNN and Cook/RT have it at Obama +3 and +6, respectively.

I'm just inclined to call it a dead heat.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national-primary.html

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Stalled because one day has him down 1?

You do realize just two days ago Clinton was up by like 8, right? One day of polling does not mean he's stalled.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. She Was Up Seven

I want you to feel good ...Just ignore what I have to say...I would buy you a drink if I could...

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Oh, sorry 7, and where was she this time last week?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Like My NBA Analogy He Got Close Then Stalled

Stay tuned...

The conventional wisdom in the NBA is a team spends so much energy closing a big lead that they blow their wad just as they come close...

Wait..


I want you to feel good... I take it back...I expect Obama to win all twenty three contests tomorrow...He will win more contests than are actually held...

[Drunken Irishman]

28. But you have no evidence he's stalled.

You keep saying he's stalled, because one poll shows him down 1 point from yesterday. Well that same poll had him down even more two days ago, before regaining that gap and closing within a couple points of Clinton. These daily tracking polls need to account for the past few days, not just one.

But you keep telling yourself he's stalled. It sure sounds like you're trying to convince yourself Obama is toast...when deep down you've got to be somewhat concerned he's made such huge gains in just a matter of a few days.

[Barack_America]

6. 4% MOE, so a statistical tie, I believe.

And a bit of an outlier today, as well.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. If It Makes You Feel Better

There is really no such thing as a "statistical dead heat" unless the candidates are tied. Within the margin of error means that, within whatever model they're using (i'd guess 95% confidence level) Clinton's lead isn't really guaranteed. However, it is still, more likely.
Clinton could be polling anywhere from 50% to 44% while Obama could be polling anywhere from 46% to 40%.

[Barack_America]

10. It makes it in better agreement with the other polls that have come out today...

It doesn't necessarily make me feel better.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Rasmussen 46% -40% /Gallup 47% -43%/CNN 49%-46%

Those are the only nat'l polls that I am aware of that include yesterday...

[Barack_America]

16. Please see above post re: CNN and Cook/RT polls. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Cook Was Concluded On Saturday

CNN, Rasmussen, and Gallup include Sunday's results...

[grantcart]

18. If the trend in under reporting for Obama continues = we have a tie

[Hoof Hearted]

26. Tomorrows going to be a wild ride - either way

a fantastic candidate will come out ahead. I'll be voting for Hillary, but if Obama gets the nomination I'm still totally on board.

[Yossariant]

27. Thank you!

:woohoo: