The primaries will not determine the nominee

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Because of the way delegates are apportioned it is impossible for voters to determine the nominee unless Hillary or Barack utterly implode.

Say Hillary or Barack come out of tomorrow with a BIG win... we would still be looking at one of the other with a lead of 100-200 delegates out of a full half of the process. And the primaries going forward will not be any more decisive. Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania are going to divvy up delegates the same way... 50 to 45, 73 to 66, etc.

Assuming the two candidates stay within the 60%-40% range there will be no bigs moves in delegates, and at this point nobody as any real hope of gaining a majority of delegates from primary voters because there are 750ish (I forget the number) Super Delegates.

So it is 100% that, for good or ill, Super Delegates will decide the nomination.

I will be disgusted if either candidate wins the actual voted-on delegates but loses the nomination, and I want to be on record saying that before we know which candidate benefits in different scenarios.

[cali]

1. it is not 100% certain that SDs will settle the nomination

we don't know what will happen tomorrow.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Write any scenario

We don't know what will happen, but we have an idea what won't happen.

Assume 60-40 popular vote for one or the other tomorrow, which would be CRUSHING, and the delegate difference will still be small... 100? 200?

Hard to see where either candidate goes on to pick up another 500 delegate margin in the second half of the country.

The role of Super Delegates can be diminished, depending on the delegate lead after the states vote, but since nobody is going to get a majority it will still be SDs that provide the margin.

[tekisui]

2. If one becomes the clear leader, even by 100-200 delegates,

And maintains or builds on it for a month or more, the "runner-up" will bow out.

I don't think that we will be any closer on Wed. But, by say March 4th, the leader will be the winner, as the other will concede.

[BootinUp]

4. as long as they pick Hillary its OK with me, lol - alright I jest

I guess it would be best if they pick the person with the most delegates.

;)