*** UPDATE *** Obama overtakes Clinton in ST Pledged Delegates?

[FlyingSquirrel]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4374482&mesg_id=4391671

After already leading Clinton in Pledged Delegates pre-Super Tuesday, Obama's post-Edwards momentum appears to give him a good chance to be leading her in Pledged Delegate totals after Super Tuesday as well.

If this happens, you'll be seeing endless discussion on the boob tube about Superdelegates and their rightful (?) place in the process. Perhaps discussion about Michigan and Florida as well.

[NJSecularist]

1. There should be no discussion about Florida and Michigan

Seating either of their delegates would void the agreement that the DNC had at the start of the primary process.

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Should be... but HRC has already been talking about Michigan

And when you've been running for president as long as she has, you're gonna pull out all the stops. Count on that.

[suston96]

3. That agreement violates the Democratic party's basic principle - every Democrats vote counts....nt

[NJSecularist]

4. Keep up the spin job

The bottom line is that Florida and Michigan weren't cooperative with the DNC in their request to move back their primary date.

We've know that for a while. This is nothing new.

Neither candidate got to campaign in either state. And you want the votes to count?

[suston96]

6. "Neither candidate got to campaign in either state. And you want the votes to count?"

Huh? Are you serious? if candidates do not campaign in a state the votes shouldn't count?

And I am the one who is spinning? Barf!

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. It might not matter.

Looking at numbers in MI and FL, although at first you might think the 55% Clinton win in MI makes a big difference, she would only have about a 15-20 Delegate lead over Obama in delegates there. In FL she has approximately 30 more Delegates. (Edwards would get about 12, and it's uncertain who they would vote for but the Edwards vote has been shifting mostly to Obama).

So at the most, if MI and FL were counted it would give Clinton another 50 delegates. (It's uncertain whether they would still not allow Superdelegates from those states even if the Pledged Delegates were seated. But it's too early to say what those Superdelegates might do anyway.)

It would certainly raise a big controversy if those 50 delegates made the difference in the contest. But at this point, with Obama gaining momentum, it may not end up being an issue. I probably shouldn't have even mentioned it.

[thoughtcrime1984]

8. The delegates shouldn't count because that's the rules

The DNC had rules about moving primary dates. The 2 states broke those rules, the punishment is the delegates won't be seated. This was known going into the 2 primaries. The candidates did not handle those states as they normally would have, so why would the delegates count now?? If anything, they could have a do-over in May, after the candidates have properly campaigned, and treated the two states like they would any state that has delegates. Then Hillary probably wouldn't have much of a delegate advantage, but obviously she wants the delegates that she wouldn't have gotten if all things were normal for the two states. The votes under the premise of no delegates should not be used to seat delegates, period!!

[suston96]

9. Better give it more thought.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3169052&mesg_id=3169052

http://www.miamiherald.com/775/story/405878.html

Mary Frances Berry, who served as U.S. Commission on Civil Rights chairwoman until 2004, is concerned that there will be a "bloody" battle at the August convention over the seating of delegates from the two states that have been punished by the Democratic National Committee.

She and Roger Wilkins, a George Mason University history professor and former Justice Department official involved in the civil rights movement, sent party leader Howard Dean the letter by e-mail Sunday.

"Public floor fights have served the Party badly in the past. They left deep-seated ill will and preceded Democratic Party defeats in 1968, and 1972," the letter said. "Resolution of this issue is a matter of fairness, justice and practicality."

[thoughtcrime1984]

10. If Obama stood to gain a bunch of delegates

it would be a non-issue, right? They'd better do a re-vote after fair campaigning, and not seat delegates based on votes with the premise of no delegates. That would be typical of the Clintons' campaign, to take advantage of the situation.

[The Delegates]

5. If Obama leads in PDs

Expect:

1. Defects from Hillary's Superdelegate camp

2. The remaining SDs to flock to Obama.

Obama's biggest problem right now is viability. The more viability he shows, the more endorsements he gets. If he can tie or beat the Clinton machine on ST, he will put to rest those questions.