bluestateguy
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Mon Feb-04-08 07:30 PM
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The polls are all over the map. Why? Because it's hard to pin down the voters. |
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In general elections for president, most Americans vote. It's easier to identify who the voters will be if you are a pollster.
Primary elections usually sport lower turnout. You also may have a lot of first time voters, who are often overlooked by pollsters. Pollsters attempt to nail down likely voters in their samples, and this is harder to do in a primary election when you have a lower turnout (compared to a GE) and you have to employ more variables to measure the likelihood of a respondent actually voting. That introduce a lot of randomness into the polling process and can lead to divergent results.
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mtnester
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Mon Feb-04-08 07:48 PM
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1. When you have double digit undecideds in EVERY area |
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most of us don't know until we enter the booth.
My state's primary is in March...I have no idea yet how I will vote on this one.
The only way I would make a decision right this second is if my life depended on it. If a pollster called me right now, I would put myself squarely in Undecided.
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dbackjon
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Mon Feb-04-08 07:57 PM
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mtnester
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Mon Feb-04-08 07:59 PM
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Fri Apr 26th 2024, 11:35 PM
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