Okay I'm gonna call it - gotta do it sometime - why not on ST Eve?

[featherman]

This is states only. Delegates is a who knows - too much math

Pretty certain (80%+) that these candidates will win numeric majorities in these states:

Clinton: NY, NJ, TN, OK, AR, NM, AZ (7)

OBAMA: IL, KS, GA, AL, UT, CO, ID, DE, AK, ND, MN (11)

Tossups: MA, CT, MO, CA (4)

[Xipe Totec]

1. You've voting for Saint Eve?

:hide:

[Thrill]

2. I agree with what you have there but I think Obama wins NM

[Barack_America]

15. I agree with that. It's a caucus state, for one....n/t

[tekisui]

3. Delegates: HC-893 BO-830 Total (no supers) MOE +/- 25 Delegates

pure guess.

[featherman]

7. Especially if she takes the big states numerically and gets the bonus

Obama may hit 60% or more in a couple of bigger states: IL and GA and get the additional bonus for that
As I said too darn complicated for me. Then you get into districts and what not.

[cbayer]

4. Who is Tossups and what is their platform?

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I like your numbers, I'll do a bit tweaking.

Clinton: NY, NJ, TN, OK, AR.
Obama: IL, KS, GA, AL, UT, CO, ID, DE, CT, AK, ND, MN, NM
Tossups: MA, CT, MO, CA, AZ

[featherman]

11. You're missing AZ?

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Sorry, AZ was tossup, I'll add it. Thanks!

[Perky]

6. KInd of wimped out with those tossups Featherman

I thin you e arpretty close

But I think your four tossup may fall Obama's way

and NJ, NM ans Az are trending to Obama but are close.

[featherman]

8. I did...LOL

[stevenleser]

9. My prediction, with margins

First I analyzed every poll I could get my hands on, then I looked at the trends. In some cases, I even got a final take from the Rasmussen Reports futures market. Below shows a prediction where Obama wins 13 states and Hillary wins 9. But I think Obama will win at least two of the states where I indicated the potential for an Obama upset is high, making it 15 states for Obama and 7 for Hillary.

Alabama Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Alaska Obama by over 10%
Arizona Obama by over 10%
Arkansas Clinton by over 10%
California Obama by less than 5%
Colorado Obama by between 5% and 10%
Connecticut Obama by over 10%
Delaware Obama by between 5% and 10%
Georgia Obama by over 10%
Idaho Obama by over 10%
Illinois Obama by over 10%
Kansas Obama by over 10%
Massachusetts Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Minnesota Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
Missouri Obama by less than 5%
New Jersey Clinton by between 5% and 10%
New Mexico Clinton by less than 5% (Potential for Obama upset is high)
New York Clinton by over 10%
North Dakota Obama by over 10%
Oklahoma Clinton by over 10%
Tennessee Clinton by over 10%
Utah Obama by over 10%

Many states still have a large number of undecided voters. They are the wildcard in all of this. If most of the undecideds in a given state break one way or the other, they can change the outcome in all but four of the Super Tuesday states. Typically, the undecideds break in one of a few ways. They either break in similar ways to the existing polling, or they break for the way that the race is trending, in the case of Super Tuesday, that would mean an even better night for Obama. But sometimes, undecideds break in a way that is completely unpredictable.

[elixir]

16. I can't spead to much of these numbers except MA. You have MA wrong, Hillary's got this!

[stevenleser]

18. I disagree and here is why

At real clear politics, there are three recent polls ---> http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ma/massachusetts_democratic_primary-539.html . Survey USA seems to have outlier results in most states so I dont think they are accurate. I think the accurate picture is somewhere between Suffolk/WHDH and Rasmussen. Interpolating the two, I think that Hillary was slightly ahead on Feb 3, and I call it that way, but with Obama's momentum and the endorsement of so many bigtime folks in Mass, I think he has a chance of an upset.

[DJ13]

10. Polls out today said Obama now has a slight lead in Arizona

That should be in the toss up catagory.

[featherman]

12. Like CA there was a big hill to climb... not certain he did it

based on one close poll. It would be a nice upset there if so

[sandnsea]

13. I'll play

Clinton: NY, NJ, TN, OK, AR, AZ (6)

OBAMA: IL, KS, GA, AL, UT, CO, ID, NM, AK, ND, MN (11)

Tossups: MA, CT, MO, CA, DE (5)

Of the tossups, I think CT and MO go Obama, DE and CA to Hil, and I just don't know about MA because I have to think Kerry, Kennedy & Patrick count for more than we're realizing.

[The Delegates]

17. Know what this means?

Delegates will be virtually tied.

Who leads will depend on who wins their state by a larger margin

[featherman]

19. Virtualy tied but who comes out a bit ahead will have a MSM win

[BootinUp]

20. AK for Obama? I would be surprised. nt

[featherman]

21. Among DEMS of course. Clinton is not competing there and Obama

has a HQ. Ron Paul is supposed to do well on the GOP side but don't know if he'll win. AK is kind of out there and nobody seems to know much. This is the little I have gleaned:

"Should be solid Obama for the demographic and organizational reasons I discussed in the last installment. The question is whether he picks up a 1-point, 3-point, or 5-point delegate margin. Given how well Dennis Kucinich did here in 2004, there’s an outside chance that Mike Gravel gets a delegate, but I’m not going to worry about that."

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831