My Super Tuesday Guide

[NJSecularist]

I wrote this up just an hour ago. I gave my predictions and what each candidate needs to do to win Super Tuesday


Alabama (60 delegates) – The polls show that this is a dead heat between Obama and Hillary. It's a fairly important state with over 60 delegates, but in all likelihood both candidates will leave this state with an equal amount of delegates. It's a valuable state for either candidate to put in their win column.

Alaska (18 delegates) – There isn't much polling data on Alaska, but Obama has a ground organization here and Hillary doesn't. I think you can fairly safely put this in Obama's column, but either way, this state won't have much impact on anything on Tuesday.

Arizona (67 delegates) – Another relatively important state that is too close to call. Both of the candidates have visited this state, both of them have deemed this state relatively important, both of them have ground games in Arizona. A win in Arizona would look good on Obama's tally at the end of the day, but I wouldn't rule out Hillary winning this state.

Arkansas (47 delegates) – There is no polling on this state, but since it is Bill Clinton-town, I would not rule out a decisive win for Hillary. With 47 delegates, this is a modestly important state, but Obama won't sweat if he loses this state by a wide margin.

California (370 delegates) – the biggest bounty of them all on Super Tuesday, as evidence by the 370 delegates at play. If both candidates finish within 5% of each other, they will both leave California with negligable delegate differences. If it is a Clinton blowout of more than 10%, he will likely only win about 30-40 delegates. Obama got done what he needed to get done and keep this state respectful. But if he does win this state, a Hillary Clinton stronghold, her supposed firewall, this will be the biggest story of Super Tuesday. As of now, it's too close to call.

Colorado (71 delegates) – Polls out about two weeks ago show Obama with a 2 point lead. We don't have any more data on this state. But Obama's campaign has placed very big importance on this state while Hillary hasn't. I'll predict an Obama win, but not a decisive win. However, a Colorado win would be a coup to his win column. It's one of the bigger states that Obama needs to win.

Connecticut (60 delegates) – both candidates have placed relative importance on this state, and it's a too close to call race. Realistically, neither candidate is going to leave this state with that much of a delegate difference, but a win in this state is a coup to the winning candidate's win column.

Delaware (23 delegates) – With only 23 delegates, this state really isn't that important in the grand scheme, but Obama has focused on it with his small state strategy while Hillary hasn't. You can most likely put this in his win column.

Georgia (103 delegates) – This state will almost assuredly go to Obama. The question is by how much. Numerous polls have given him a 15+ point advantage. There are a lot of delegates at stake, and if Obama can strengthen his margin of victory he can receive a very good bounty of delegates from this state. One of his biggest coups on Super Tuesday.

Idaho (23 delegates) – There isn't much data on Idaho, but much like Alaska, Obama has spent a lot of time focusing on Idaho while Hillary hasn't. He brought 10,000+ to a rally in Boise. I'd say this state is fairly safe for him, but it is relatively unimportant by itself.

Illinois (185 delegates) – Obama's home state. With 185 delegates at stake, if Obama can get above 60% of the vote here he can take the majority of those delegates. This state has obviously not been contested by Hillary, but one of the main stories of Super Tuesday will be by how much Barack wins his home state. This is the 3rd biggest state in play in terms of delegates, behind California and New York.

Kansas (41 delegates) – It's hard to get a good grasp on what will happen in this state because there hasn't been any recent polls. But Obama and Hillary were neck and neck even when Edwards was still in the race. This state is too close to call, but it will be a relatively important win for whomever wins this state.

Massachusetts (121 delegates) – One of the biggest bounties on Super Tuesday, this state has been hotly contested by both candidates. Hillary had a rally today, and Obama will have one tonight with Senator Kerry, Kennedy and the Governor of Massachusetts attending. A recent poll today shows that Obama is winning by 2 points, but this state is too close to call and will go down to the wire tommorow.

Minnesota (88 delegates) – With 88 delegates at stake, this is a very important state, and a state that both Hillary and Obama have spent a lot of time at. Obama was in Minnesota on Saturday and Hillary had a rally on Sunday and watched the Super Bowl in Minnesota. This race is too close to call and it could go either way. There simply isn't enough poll data to tell us otherwise.

Missouri (88 delegates) – Pretty much the same thing as Minnesota. Both candidates have spent a lot of time here, this state is very important, but it is still way too close to call. This will be a big win for whomever wins this state.

New Jersey (107 delegates) – This is Hillary's back yard, and she is expected to win this state. Recent polls have showed a dead heat, but I don't believe that for a second. If Obama can keep the margin of victory within 5-10 points, he will have done his job here and they will both leave this state with an almost equal amount of delegates. This is an important state that Hillary's campaign NEEDS to win.

New Mexico (38 delegates) – one of the more important small-states. The ultra-popular governor of that state, Bill Richardson, has refused to give an endorsement. It's up in the air who will win this state, both candidates have a ground game and are advertising in New Mexico.

New York (281 delegates) – The second biggest bounty of the Super Tuesday states and Hillary will win this. It is her home state. If Obama can get above 40% in this state, he will have succeeded, but he will need better than expected turnout in New York City and the surrounding boroughs because Hillary will absolutely dominate the suburbs. Again, the magic number for Obama is 40+% percent. If Obama can get that, he can leave this state without too much delegate damage. He does have a ground game and some support in this state, and he is targeting African American-rich counties and counties with big rich populations.

North Dakota (21 delegates) – Not much data on this state, and not a relatively important state, but Obama does have a ground game here and has gotten several key endorsements. I'd put this in Obama's column.

Oklahoma (41 delegates) – Hillary will dominate this state, and Edwards might finish second, even though he has withdrawn from the race. Obama hasn't even tried to campaign in this state, it was an uphill battle for him from the start. He might even come in 3rd.

Tennessee (85 delegates) – a Hillary stronghold and a state she should win by double digits. This is another state that will hurt Obama tommorow, he needs to make up the difference in other states because he will come in a distant second here. Hillary is looking for a 20+ percentage difference her to seperate herself and get the majority of the states delegates.

Utah (29 delegates) – A recent poll shows Obama up 25+ points here. He will most likely win this state, and win it by a wide margin, but seeing as there are only 30 delegates, it's nothing to write home about, but it's another state that he can put in his win column.



My prediction: The outcome of Super Tuesday will depend on who wins several key swing states like California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Colorado, Alabama and New Jersey. If Obama wants to win the nomination, he needs to win several of these states. He can come in a close second in all states and get an equal amount of delegates, but it doesn't matter if he only wins 2 out of 9 states because the spin will be that he got slaughtered on Super Tuesday. If he can win Massachusetts and California, he will be ecstatic. Both are looking like they may go to Hillary, however.