Looking to Florida polls for a possible explanation for California.

[Drunken Irishman]

Prior to the GOP primary in Florida, the polls showed either McCain or Romney ahead. Of course, we ultimately know who won that race (McCain).

Now, polls show Obama or Clinton ahead and it's tough to really know which one is correct. So I thought it would be best to compare, maybe to get an idea where we stand only a few hours before the actual results.

SurveyUSA - California:

Clinton: 53
Obama: 41

SurveyUSA - Florida:

McCain: 32
Romney: 31

McCain won Florida 36-31. SurveyUSA had him winning by 1, however, McCain won by 5. The poll was 4 points off.

Suffolk - California:

Obama: 40
Clinton: 39

Suffolk - Florida:

McCain: 30
Romney: 27

Suffolk was off on their final totals, but closer to the actual margin than SUSA. Suffolk had McCain winning by 3, so they were only 2 points off.

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby - California

Obama: 49
Clinton: 36

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby - Florida

McCain: 35
Romney: 31

Zogby's poll was clearly the closest. Not only were they close to the final results, they had McCain winning by 4, so they were 1 point off the final results.

Rasmussen - California:

Obama: 45
Clinton: 44

Rasmussen - Flordia:

McCain: 31
Romney: 31

Rasmussen had this a tie, so they were 5 points off the final outcome.

Mason-Dixon - California:

Clinton: 45
Obama: 36

Mason-Dixon - Florida:

Romney: 30
McCain: 26

The worst of all the polls. Mason-Dixon had Romney winning Florida by 4, he lost by 5, so they were off by 9.

These numbers show that Zogby and Suffolk were the closest to Florida. Both those polls have Obama winning. However, SUSA was 3rd and they give Clinton her biggest advantage.

Looking at these numbers, though, should give you a better idea of what poll is more reliable, since I think Florida is a lot like California. Take this for what it's worth.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I added the new Zogby numbers showing Obama up big.