If Obama wins in California tomorrow, can we say that the Dem race is over?

[Colobo]

Yes? No? Why?

[Unsane]

1. Yes (although I think it is highly unlikely that he wins CA today)

It would be spun as a huge upset and bad for Hillary. It's the biggest prize.

[Tweed]

2. Not if he loses every other state by a wide margin.

[Unsane]

9. And pigs might fly.

If Obama wins CA, he WILL have won other states.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. No, just as the GOP race wasn't over when McCain won Florida.

However, it would be huge for him and it would be very difficult for Clinton to rally.

[Azathoth]

4. No, but the psychological victory would be overwhelming n/t

[pennylane100]

5. That is going to be a tight race,

most of the absentee ballots were cast before the race tightened up so it is up for graps, in my opinion.

[lapfog_1]

6. No... but the handwriting might start appearing on the wall

no single win tomorrow will push either candidate over the top.

The the breathtakingly fast "catch up" that Obama has done in the last few weeks (really since Iowa) is clearly indicative that given enough time, it's going to be Obama.

The only thing is that so many delegates will be chosen already... it may well be up to the super delegates. And given that Big Dog quite likely has a number of chits to call on from his years in the White House, well, it will be an interesting convention.

[TwilightGardener]

7. No--it's going to be a teeth-and-claws fight for every delegate, if he

does well tomorrow.

[still_one]

8. No, and unfortunately, I don't think it will be that decisive for any of us

I think we can expect this to go on after super Tuesday

and I also believe we can expect the same spirit of brotherly love that we have seen in the General Discussion:Primaries area to also continue for a lot longer, unfortunately

[jackson_dem]

10. No. Even under the best Obama scenario it will be 60/40 in delegates for him

With Obama still far short of the number needed to win. A California win would only make him the nominal front runner, a status that would be solidified by dominating Lousiana and the Beltway trimary.

[Unsane]

13. The OP's question isn't geared towards whether the race would "technically" be over.

Of course it wouldn't be over in the sense of delegates. But if Obama wins CA, the race is fucking over for all intents and purposes. Hillary will have trouble raising money and the national PR will be behind Obama.

[jackson_dem]

15. I don't think you can count Hillary out

If she wins Ohio and Texas she will be right back in it, even assuming a rosy result for Obama today.

[Unsane]

17. She wont win those states

if Obama takes CA. It will be a month of no money and taking a constant pounding. Hillary win Texas? that's a stretch.

[jackson_dem]

21. If she "loses" today she will make her last stand on March 4 in ohio and Texas

By focusing on them she would be able to minimize Obama's financial advantage a bit. Obama will be competing hard in the rest of the February states. Money helps but it can only go so far. Hillary has enough money and gets enough media attention to be able to get her message out. She is McCain to Obama's Romney. She isn't a pauper like Huckabee.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

25. And then there's the Rezko trial coming up.

[Unsane]

26. and then the subthread devolved into tripe...

thanks, ass.

[newmajority]

11. California is a huge win

But not huge enough to seal the deal tomorrow, I'm afraid. :(

I don't think this is done until August.

[TexasObserver]

12. We can't, but many will say it.

They may be right.

[BeyondGeography]

14. It was over when he won New Hampshire

Oh yeah, wait...

[cboy4]

18. Oh snap.

It's good to see there's at least one humble Obama supporter around here.

[dailykoff]

22. But LHS stepped in to the rescue.

I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of such surprises tomorrow, unfortunately.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

16. nope. The MSM will try but the Clintons will fight til the last dog dies

[dailykoff]

20. They've been propping her up for four years.

I don't think they'll stop just because nobody votes for her.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

23. She won more votes in FL than Obama won in the entire primary season

[dailykoff]

24. Right, and her MSM pals went along for the ride

as usual.

[jackson_dem]

31. The MSM is with Obama

http://www.cmpa.com/election%20news%202_1_08.htm

Whether coverage of the candidates was positive or negative.

Obama: 47% positive, 16% negative.
Clinton: 27% positive, 38% negative.
McCain: 12% positive, 48% negative
Giuliani: 28% positive, 37% negative
JDNE

Net numbers

Obama +31
Giuliani -9
Clinton -11
McCain -36

http://www.journalism.org/node/8187

These are from the first five months of the campaign. If anyone has a newer study post it. There is little reason to believe the tenor of reporting changed from that point until Iowa. Since then as the sniping has escalating the positive numbers for each candidate must have dropped, with the brief exception of the media orgasm for Obama after Iowa and McCain's favorable coverage since New Hampshire.

[dailykoff]

19. It was over after Iowa, but try telling that to the robos.

[sandnsea]

27. No, the next 9 states are mostly his

As long as it's close, Obama can keep going. That's what Hillary will do if she loses.

[donheld]

28. We need more than that

and I believe we can have more than that.

[AshevilleGuy]

29. We could say that the election is over.

And McCain would win. I am hoping against hope that this will not happen.

[loveangelc]

30. yes.

[ShadowLiberal]

32. No one state can provide enough of a boost to 'end' the dem race

The only way a single state could end the race is if Obama or Hillary embarrassingly got defeated in their own home state, and if that happened then chances are the winner would have won most of the other states by big margins, enough to come off as a clear winner anyway.

[Hippo_Tron]

33. He will run the table but it will not be over

[Raine]

34. No because Hillary

will do whatever it takes to "seat" the delegates from Michigan and Florida no matter how it tears the party apart. :-(

[Uben]

35. She's already won California

....you just don't know it yet!

[bridgit]

36. Sadly no, not imo, cause then it's going to get really-really shitty

super delegates, cigars in smoke filled rooms, markers being called in, plus both camp's messages need to be heard imfo right up & onto the convention stage = let the confetti fly :thumbsup:

[thoughtcrime1984]

38. I agree

It will be a tough row to hoe, even with a decisive Cali victory.

[Stand and Fight]

37. No. n/t