The Delegates
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Tue Feb-05-08 02:25 AM
Original message |
More # crunching with the latest Zogby CA Poll |
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Edited on Tue Feb-05-08 02:26 AM by The Delegates
If, hypothetically, all of RCPs averages are correct except for California (and the Zogby poll nailed California)...
Obama would have a 655-599 delegate lead after those 11 states (this includes NY and NJ)
If all of the Zogby polls are correct, Obama will have a 371-284 delegate lead (zogby only has polls in CA, GA, MO, and NJ from waht I could find).
If the Survey USA polls are correct in those states (theres actually only a 3 state overlap because I can't find a SurveyUSA GA poll), Clinton would lead 339-295.
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NJSecularist
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Tue Feb-05-08 02:28 AM
Response to Original message |
1. Are you aware of the odd California proportional delegate allotment formula? |
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Edited on Tue Feb-05-08 02:29 AM by NJSecularist
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/2/212343/0037The distribution of delegates isn't by popular vote, it's by a combination of delegates per district and the difference in the final popular vote...
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The Delegates
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Tue Feb-05-08 02:31 AM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. Tough to factor that into my excel spreadsheet |
NJSecularist
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Tue Feb-05-08 02:32 AM
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:)
But your formula gives a rough idea what one should expect.
In fact, most of the states go by a congressional district delegate allotment system, not the popular vote.
Which is why it is important for candidates to meet the 40% threshold.
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caligirl
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Tue Feb-05-08 02:45 AM
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4. In California we have bonus delegates for reaching a higher threshold. Do you know anything |
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about this.? David Shuster tried to explain it. :shrug:
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NJSecularist
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Tue Feb-05-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
5. I believe over 60% in certain districts and you get a bonus delegate |
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Sat May 11th 2024, 04:57 PM
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