Caution to Obama supporters: logic and history says Clinton will win big tomorrow

[Sensitivity]

The fundamentals as well as the details favor Clinton:

1. There has not been enough time for folk to develop strong commitments in any of these states.
2. In most of the country the womem's vote will trend for Hillary based on gender pride. There is nothing that can change this in such a short time.
3. Clinton has a truly strong ground campaign with an army of true political pro's, like Bill, quitely campaigning their hearts out on the ground.
4. Early voting by mail means that many votes were cast before Obama began to campaign in these States. Surges don't help if the votes have already been cast.
5. White racism still exists in varying degrees and what is said to the polster is different from
what will happen in the secrecy of the booth for many a voter.

Obama supporters should be prepared to be satisfied by some modest success in states with a large
African American pop. where ethnic pride will favor him.

[Levgreee]

1. Obama has had a lot going for him

endorsements, both key figures, and an amount of newspapers that eclipses Hillary's, huge rallies which may have supplied thousands of votes each, and a momentous surge, especially among young people. These effects are real, and are reflected in the poll.

Now, this surge has not been able to paint over every area with a strong growth of Obama support, but there will be some key swings that would not have been imaginable 2 weeks ago.

[sandnsea]

2. Have you been paying attention?

Do you think a bunch of white people are going to stand in 25 degree weather at 4:30 in the morning to listen to a politcal speech - and then not go out and vote???

:eyes:

[cali]

4. It's the same old canard again and again:

Whites won't vote for Obama. I hope we can give that hoary chestnut a dirt nap- starting tonight.

[cali]

3. Except for your last sentence, I think you make some excellent

points- then everything falls apart. Obama will win some very white states tomorrow such as Idaho and perhaps CO. He's at with Clinton re the white vote in many places. How do you explain that? In a month, he'll definitely sweep my very white state of VT. Again, how do you explain states as different but as white, as Idaho and VT being Obama strongholds?

[Sensitivity]

5. White vote favors Obama when there is no racial issues in the community

Obama is the better candidate on the merits for those who want change. There will be a small gender bias. When there are racial issues there are both racial and gender
effect that have been significant in the past primaries.

[cali]

7. That makes some degree of sense

but we'll just have to wait until tonight to find out if it's true. If Obama does well in states like Missouri and NJ and MA with white voters, your supposition will not hold up.

[Sensitivity]

16. Unfortunately, the Latino vote has been locked-up for Clinton by Viatsgosa

and other latino opinion leaders.

[Apollo11]

6. Then logic and history don't know squat!

Sorry - couldn't resist! ;-)

I guess we will all have to wait until the results come in.

In the meantime there is a lot of work to do ....

[sab3rX]

8. I fully expect Clinton to win tomorrow

But by how much, I'm not sure. Name recognition alone will carry her through many of the states.

[regnaD kciN]

11. The pattern of states tomorrow really favors Clinton...

...let's put it this way: if Obama wins the most delegates, let alone the most state contests, this contest is pretty much over, because HRC will have taken her best shot and fallen short.

But I thoroughly expect Clinton to win the most states and delegates tomorrow. The question is by how much? If Obama can keep it close (winning somewhere significant other than his home state of Illinois, keeping it close in the big states, and remaining a couple of hundred delegates or less behind HRC), it's at least a moral victory and quite possibly a wash, since the remainder of this month's schedule suggests he can make big gains by the end of February. If Clinton cannot provide a "knockout blow" today, this race will be going on a long time...possibly even through the end of the primaries in, I believe, May.

[Sensitivity]

17. That is the fact

[MoJoWorkin]

9. Add to that list --the weather. Here in MO it is to be rainy and stormy

( 100% chance all day and it has already been raining all nite. Severe storms expected) in Obama's strongest area--St. Louis. I remember the last two elections where inner city voters lined up at 7 pm, after work, were not allowed to vote. It was a big mess. Now add to that voters lined up outside in the pouring rain? Not good.

Kansas City is to have a mix of rain/sleet/snow.

Outstate will be Hillary Country. Like the conservative SW MO where I live.

I am going to vote early, and often (I wish, ha) for Obama.

[sandnsea]

10. Maybe the young people will brave the weather

and the older ones will stay home. eeek.

:shrug:

[michaz]

12. I am white, 58 and live in Upstate NY. I am voting Obama!n/t

[Vinca]

13. If Hillary wins, the country loses.

If she becomes president, all the dislike we've had for Bush will be coming at her from the right, the center and part of the left. Nothing will get done for another 4 years. She's certainly qualified, but we need a bona fide uniter.

[kevsand]

14. Then it's a good thing that we're making history, isn't it... /nt

[Meshuga]

15. I am expecting modest success

And modest success is a victory for Obama. I'm expecting Hillary to get 60-40% of delegates. If Obama fairs better than that it is victory in my eyes because there are other primaries to go and his campaign has the means to turn it up if he manages to come out of super tuesday alive in this race.