A Poll of the Pollsters - Read the Report card:

[Coexist]

http://www.surveyusa.com/

[jakem]

1. Lester- 19% off and getting paid?!

[Coexist]

2. I posted this because today's polls have HUGE gaps

as a reminder.

[awaysidetraveler]

3. Adding this will help, I'm thinking by the skew that Obama will win by a little.

Here's the second picture with the details. Only Zogby and Mason-Dixon have reported on all the democratic primaries.

?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. It's A Ridiculously Small Sample

ABC has polled two races...Not much to judge em by...

[awaysidetraveler]

6. Right, the place to check is Zogby/Reuters and Mason-Dixon, both of which skew towards HRC

[Hoof Hearted]

13. max is 8, so what do you think would be significant?

is there a meaningful way to figure accuracy from the number of polled races and the avg. error?

This is why I'm NOT a bookie, or in crowd control, or infrastructure development. . . .

[Hoof Hearted]

5. Ugh. Fox beats CNN by 5 points. Damn damn damn damn. That hurts.

I don't even see MSNBC on there.

ABC on top.

Thanks for this post, it should be helpful.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. MSNBC=Mason Dixon

That's the pollster they commissioned...

[awaysidetraveler]

10. General Electric owns MSNBC, by the way. They've got billions to lose to an Obama election.

So if you're wondering whether or they have an interest in posting Hillary polls,
you know: they do.

However, it's possible that all their polls go askew for Hillary for some polling reason.

[Hoof Hearted]

15. Must . wrap . tinfoil . tighter . around . head .

http://bp3.blogger.com/_UMJPRMUyTLA/Rqdsf6VPTPI/AAAAAAAAAAM/AFx50lpCfwM/s400/Photo+58.jpg

[awaysidetraveler]

23. No, it's not quite as conspiracy-wacko as it sounds. GMCC owns MSNBC, and most of their billions

come from oil.

That's a fact you can google. General Electric Capital Corporation bought out NBC and launched MSNBC a few years back.

I'm not saying that it means their polling company Mason-Dixon can't be trusted, because they're in on the vast right-wing conspiracy.

However, go ahead and check their polls of HRC vs. Obama. They're consistently off and they consistently favor HRC.
That I am saying.

If you average the skew that they're off by and use that as a projection for what they're off by now, it puts the majority of polls in favor of Obama winning--not against.

The tinfoil looks good, by the way.

[awaysidetraveler]

8. Yeah, but Fox only polled for New Hampshire. It's not enough of a sample to check reliability.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Here's A Peer Related Review

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

[awaysidetraveler]

11. Yeah, it looks as if these pollsters don't recognize FOX at all.

Moreover, despite the fact that they distrust Zogby polls,
Zogby has been the most accurate long-term polling agency for these Democratic primaries.

And--get this--Zogby is also skewed towards Hillary.

[Hoof Hearted]

12. In the last ABC poll Clinton 47% Obama 43%

But Clinton is maintaining her advantage in other groups; she leads Obama by 15 points among women and 23 points among white women. She has an 11-point lead among mainline Democrats, as opposed to independents; and is plus-11 among moderate and conservative Democrats, as opposed to liberals overall (among whom it's Obama plus-8).

She also has more committed support; 62 percent of Clinton voters say they strongly support her, compared with 49 percent of Obama's. Both well outstrip McCain's 38 percent strong support.
Blog
BLOGS: POLITICAL RADAR

STRENGTH/DIRECTION -- Beneath these overall numbers has beena shift back toward Clinton in a key dynamic of the race, the battle between her trademark attributes of strength and experience vs. Obama's focus on a new direction and new ideas.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4233020&page=1

We shall see what we see I guess. This is gonna be a long, long day.

A full PDF of the poll here. http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1058a1SuperTuesday.pdf

[awaysidetraveler]

16. If you connect that ABC poll with the also respected CNN poll (+3 Obama), you end up with +.5 HRC

Considering the trajectory of the polls, it's clear that Obama has the momentum.

[Didereaux]

14. I wonder if Zogby has adjusted their algorithm, they are not known for huge swings..

It is entirely possible that they have introduced an adjustment to the algorithm to take into account some 'new' indicator at the last minute of the polling cycle. Now saying that has any basis, but something has changed with Zogby's results. I may have to go back and take a closer look at all the previous polls since NH, and especially Florida.

[awaysidetraveler]

18. I just checked those polls, and found that Zogby skewed in favor of HRC consistently.

However, they did so less than others did. Some believe it's the result of how they've used cell phone bias.

[Coexist]

21. I have been trying to find out why - Zogby is actually high up on that report card - I was surprised

This post on this thread is interesting:

This is something people have been waiting for and if it's accurate then there is something huge underway

In California, we have Obama polling into a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there. What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clintons lead among Hispanic voters.

Many things have occurred to create this shift. There was Edward's outreach on the Talk Stations pointing out Obama's conviction on Latino Issues, followed up by La Opinion's endorsement.

Something to remember, Hillary's strength is in Latino Votes, a block less likely to participate in Early Voting and more likely to vote on Election Day. If Obama was able to close that gap, his leads among African American + Ties among whites in general could make him a big winner tonight in California.

Also, Zogby's polls is Purely Sunday/Monday, with Monday being the Strongest day period. By Monday Shriver's Endorsement made women think, LA Times was read all through Hillary's Core Base of support, and La Opinion had sparked headed debate in Hillary's core community of support.

I don't want to get my hopes up too much but all logic signs point to Zogby being right, including the way Penn et co deployed Bill solidly in California for 3 days. Something huge was happening there to have him on Defense like this.

What I like about scrolling through posts on kos, is there seem to be more professionals in whatever field that they are discussing leaving thoughtful comments. And yes, I realise the person posting that is not a professional pollster - don't think I am saying that, I mean in general.

I prefer DUs setup, and the sheer volume of information available to us here (especially the way the new home page is set up - stellar!), but I go there to check out their comments section more.

[Didereaux]

27. Aha! I may have found the answer to the huge jump in Zogby!

On SUSA site in their analysis and explanation of methods they noted that they are filtered fro those who have voted AND those highly likely to vote. They further mentioned that since their exists a huge gender gap that if men who were listed as less likely to vote turned up in large numbers that would make a large change for Obama. SOOOOO

If Zogby's filter contains a higher percentage of less likely males than SUSA you would get a huge difference in results.

I really think that is the explanation.

[Coexist]

28. interesting - I have heard that 60% of the CA vote is female

[9119495]

17. cool post.

[awaysidetraveler]

19. Can anyone find evidence of polls consistently askew in favor of Obama?

I can't. Though both Zogby and Mason-Dixon appear to be askew in favor of HRC in a consistent manner.

[Coexist]

22. that doesn't matter - what you should look at is who is correct more often

skewing disappears on election day. Results last forever.

[awaysidetraveler]

24. Right, but ABC's polls are few and far between. I'm trying to see how the pollsters skew the race.

Of course results are more important than how the pollsters spin what's going to happen.

These polls do shape how people vote, though. So looking at a consistent skew in favor of one candidate is remarkable.

That's what we're seeing now: a majority of polls are skewed in favor of HRC over Obama, and that should tell us
something about how to analyse these numbers.

Do you agree?

[Coexist]

25. yes "ahead in the polls" can make someone who supports another candidate

feel hopeless and keep them home.

I don't know who skews which way - if the comments here are to be believed, Zogby skews Obama, and SUSA skews Clinton.

[awaysidetraveler]

26. I didn't find Zogby skews in favor of Obama--I found the opposite from the above data.

Zogby just didn't skew as much in favor of HRC as the others did. Also, Zogby projected Obama as the winner in New Hampshire, where he lost. Still, if you take their total predictions, you find their total skew to favor HRC--not Obama.

[mod mom]

20. Where is Penn, Schoen & Berland?