Will We Have A CLEAR Nominee After Tonight????

[musicblind]

My parents kept promising me that "yes, we would know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, who the winner was on Feb 5th." Now I don't think even they are sure anymore.

So, with all the hardcore fans of both Obama and Hillary on this board... I just had to ask!

What does DU think, will we have a clear nominee after tonight?

[Perky]

1. No way in Hell. Delagte math prohibits it

[scheming daemons]

2. Not a chance....

The delegate count will be too even.... neither candidate will win by more than 150 delegates tonight.... which means the Dem race will still be at a fever pitch.

Which is not necessarily a bad thing, by the way.

[mckeown1128]

3. Not a chance of it happening.

Either candidate can win all 22 states and still barely be ahead in delegates.

[Stuckinthebush]

4. Hell no.

The fun is just beginning.

[onehandle]

Considering how all over the place polls on earlier primaries were, I say: Maybe. nt

[pampango]

14. The polls could be way off - either way. If they are,

we could have a clear favorite, though certainly not a sure lock winner.

If Hillary can surprise with a 60-40 type win nationally, she could almost effectively put Obama away. He would fall behind in the delegate race, lose his MO, and have a hole poked in the idea of turning enthusiasm into votes. Of course, he still could regain his momentum in the remaining states. There would still be enough delegates out there for him to still win, but it would be very tough.

If Obama can pull off even a 51-49 win nationally, Hillary would be in a pretty rough spot. Obama would take a delegate lead (at least among elected ones), his MO would be reinforced, and she would have a tough time reversing the erosion of the big leads she had a month ago. Obviously, she would still have a chance after ST because there are still plenty of delegates out there and she could hope that the superdelegates would stick with her.

I agree with most of the posters, that the most likely scenario is a narrow Hillary win nationally, which both sides can spin as a "win" and the battle goes on.

It seems at this point that it will be very difficult for either candidate to go into the convention with enough delegates (if you don't count superdelegates, Florida, Michigan and Edwards delegates) to win without a lot of "maneuvering". Whichever one goes in with the most elected delegates (even though they are way short of a majority) will put tremendous pressure on the superdelegates not to overturn the "will of the people". I hope this all helps us in the GE.

[newmajority]

5. Nope. The attempt to buy Hillary an early coronation has failed.

And thank God for that!

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. Not with the proportional delegate system we won't

I suspect a difference of no more than 300 in delegate count, which means a deficit easy enough to make up in the remaining races.

[mihalevich]

7. I think it will be something like 50% Clinton 46% Obama

I voted for Obama. I don't think we will have a clear nominee after today. IMO

[SteppingRazor]

8. Not a chance. I'm betting on having a nominee by the end of March 4...

when Texas, Ohio, R.I. and Vermont have their primaries.

[AGirl]

9. Hillary is just getting warm up.

[bowens43]

10. Nope. Not a chance.

None of the states are winner take all. Hillary and Obama are neck and neck. I think this is going all the way to the convention.

[harun]

11. Obama will be in the lead after today, but Hillary isn't going to bow

out. It will go to the convention where they will have to work something out.

[hedgehog]

12. I think Tom Toles has your answer here:

[Just-plain-Kathy]

13. Being I firmly believe we lost our democracy and corporate America now controls us....

...I think today's election will be so close, it will drive voters into a frenzy.

I predict, our future primaries leading up to this election will become black against white, man against woman. They'll be talk about lack of funds. Supporters will be sending their money in by the bag full.

Our corporate owned media will be selling A LOT of airtime!

[BenDavid]

15. truthfully since you were asking....after tonight there will be no

clear leader but there will be one ahead and from what I can calculate HRC will have more delegates than obama....I have said all along that HRC would capture the nomination by the middle of March....then again it could be Pa. in April that will decide it, but I personally do not see it. So everyone have a good day. It is all in the hands of the voters as it should be and not me saying HRC all the way and an obama supporter saying the opposite.....

so let it be written, let it be done

[Colobo]

16. I hope we do.

[Neshanic]

17. Kinda. Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania are biggies to come, but I think we will have a better handle.

[Freddie Stubbs]

18. Probably not for us, but perhaps for the Republicans

[Neshanic]

20. Absolutely, they will field the straight-jacket kid, and an insane nut to be named later.

[tammywammy]

19. Doubtful

[NoPasaran]

21. I don't think so

The way many delegates are awarded proportionally by districts works against either candidate being able to deliver a knockout blow. But it's possible that we may have a clear frontrunner after this, if either of them is able to win a larger share of delegates in most states (especially the most populous.)

[dmallind]

22. I don't like the delegate allocation math so no

I don;t necessarily think we should go to winner take all math either, but the delegate allocation that means essentially anything over 40 is a tie makes clear frontrunner status difficult to achieve with two very popular well funded candidates like we have. It gives us anomalies such as losing popular votes but tying delegates, and means a close race is kept TOO close.

Personally I'd go for allocation of delegates on a percentage basis, with leftovers going to the winner. So a state with 100 delegates and a vote count of 50.5% to 49.5% would go 51-49.

[rateyes]

23. I don't think we'll have a clear nominee....

We might have a white one, or a black one...but, I doubt that, too. :D

[Sir Jeffrey]

24. No. This is going on at least until the end of the month...

both candidates have way too much money to fold it in right now, and the delegate count after today should still be within 100-200 of each other.