Obama soars ahead in California by 13% overnight

[zulchzulu]

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0345866120080205?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/2008candidates

Obama was behind by 30 points last August in California.

[ursi]

1. whether he wins it or not ...the increase is amazing!

[Auggie]

7. First the Giants -- can Obama pull off another upset?

[loudsue]

21. And, very literally, hard to believe.

The "polls" I've seen in this election make no sense whatsoever. It's as if the winds change course so fast your head spins.

[rox63]

2. Wow! I'm stunned and happy

:wow: :party: :bounce: :applause:

[NoodleBoy]

3. huh. I'm not convinced... that's too much of a shift.

oh well... I hope I'm wrong.

[GalleryGod]

16. That's California: They DECIDED to go with Tomorrow!

[CoffeeCat]

19. Hey, it happened in Iowa...

Hillary was ahead in Iowa, and Obama slowly gained momentum. During the
week before the caucus, it was obvious that the momentum had shifted with
Hillary trending downward and Obama shifting upward.

The dynamics of California are exactly the dynamics that played out in Iowa.
I'm watching all of this play out in California, and I want to scream, "I
lived all of this just a few weeks ago!".

The CA turnout appears to be similar in Iowa, where we experienced a 100
percent increase.

I am not surprised at all by these surging numbers--because I've seen what
happens when the full force of the Obama campaign hits a state.

However, early voting definitely favors Clinton. We'll just have to see
how that will affect the outcome. I'm unclear the percentage of people
who voted early in CA.

It's going to be interesting that's for sure, but these positive, Obama
surge numbers are entirely plausible, because they happened in Iowa.

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Aaaaaaachoooobullshit

No effin' way.

[psychopomp]

5. If he should take California

it will be impossible to count him out of the race for the nomination.

[dkf]

6. That scares me. Might unmotivate people who need to VOTE!

[zulchzulu]

13. Absolutely

People STILL need to vote despite what the polls say, no matter who they support.

[onehandle]

8. (January 6) Poll: Obama ahead by 13% in New Hampshire

Obama vaulted to a 13 percentage-point advantage over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton three weeks after they were tied here.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-06-poll-newhampshire_N.htm

[VolcanoJen]

9. Anyone remember how Zogby fared in New Hampshire?

I'm loving this new poll, of course, but has Zogby been as inaccurate as just about every other pollster this cycle, or has he been catching the late trends?

[Yossariant]

17. Not too well. Had Barack up by 13% the day of the primary. Link:

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire to 13 points as voting began in the state's critical presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday...
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0433304720080108

[HeraldSquare212]

10. I think the spread in two of the polls out on CA right now is about 24%

one has Obama up by 13%, one has Clinton up by 11%. Crazy! As with Iowa, it's meaningless unless we know the assumptions they are building into it. Remember the Iowa Daily Register poll showing Obama so far ahead, and the other campaigns said the IDR was overstating what turnout would be? It turned out they were right on in guessing turnout and the campaigns vastly underestimated turnout. Obviously each of these polls is making different assumptions. It'd be interesting to know what they are.

[TexasObserver]

11. I hope it's right, but there are 15 points unaccounted for

49-36 split could equal a 49-51 loss.

It ain't over til it's over.

[book_worm]

12. I'm not sure that is right, but hopefully he is ahead enough to offset early voting for HRC.

[1776Forever]

14. Yahoo - Let's hope this is right on! I can stand a little good news!!!!!!!

:applause: :woohoo: :applause:

[GalleryGod]

15. She never saw us coming out of the Nefud Desert...on her Left Flank!

Garry Owen,Obama! Garry Owen !!!!!

[Bitwit1234]

18. AND HILLARY SOARS TO 10% OVERALL ACCORDING TO A

CREDITIBLE POLL not the one run by the republicans who paid their panel..Now if you don't believe that Zogby has been consistantly wrong go search and find that these people are the same ones over and over and they are paid.

[dchill]

23. Oh, oh...

It's a vast right-wing conspiracy! :)

[hogwyld]

20. Is it me, or are the pollsters/media setting up Obama

for a big fall from grace should he fail to live up to their lofty expectations?

[Clinton Crusader]

22. Really? Rasmussen=Obama has taken a one-point lead over Clinton in California

[GoldieAZ49]

24. Where in CA are the polls

San Francisco and LA county are the key areas, could the difference in the polls reflect different areas of CA?

[wildflowergardener]

25. change

I guess I could see a big change at the last minute if there were a lot of undecided voters just making up their minds. I do hope it's true.

Meg

[OzarkDem]

26. a miracle

:eyes: