Zogby or SurveyUSA

[RedEarth]

The Polls
02.05.08 -- 9:04AM By Josh Marshall
There's one guarantee I can make right now about tonight's results. They are going take make either Zogby or SurveyUSA look like complete fools. Which one I'm not completely sure, but definitely one of them.

Consider this spread. Zogby has his final California number as Obama 49%, Clinton 36%. SurveyUSA has Obama 42%, Clinton 52%.

I think that may be the starkest spread; but down the line Zogby has immense momentum behind Obama and a series of results that would bring him in with something between a solid and a smashing win. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA has close to the exact opposite. Comparing these numbers to other polling organizations they're both somewhat outliers, though Zogby's results are closer to the average of other polls than SurveyUSA.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/177027.php

[Bitwit1234]

1. You have to remember...

Zogby has a PAID PANEL of members. Who they poll. They don't use the same ones over and over but they do select them from this paid pool...If you don't believe me...go to search and you will find out this is true.

[book_worm]

2. I guess we will just have to wait until tonight and see who wins where and by how much

[democrattotheend]

3. SurveyUSA may have overpolled Latinos

They comprise 26% of the latest SUSA poll, but were only 16% of the voters in the California Democratic primary in 2004. I expect that their share has grown since then, but has it grown by that much?

I could not find crosstabs for the Zogby poll, so I can't comment on whether their sample was reflective of the population. Both polls seem suspicious to me.

[Didereaux]

4. Zogby also seems to include a larger number of 'might' voters. If they...

include a fairly large number of males then the gender split disappears and Obama would show a huge leap. I really suspect this is what happened between the Zoby and the SUSA disparities. Susa uses a voted or STRONGLY apt to vote, whereas Zogby seems less strident on the intent factor. Point is that in order for Obama to make that kind of one day leap it will take a huge turnout of the maybe/might voters and of them a majority will have to be male. Otherwise the thing is back to neck and neck.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Zogby was within 1 point of the Florida results.

He had McCain winning 35-31, he won 36-31.

Survey USA had McCain winning 32-31.

[bidenista]

6. jeez, just wait 24 HOURS!

I don't see the point of poll speculation at this point. I hate the way every election day is reported through the prism of polls. Can't we just wait for the results?

(Number 2 on my hit list - pundits who prematurely "call" states for X or Y candidate.)

[MadBadger]

7. Zogby nailed Nevada