Early exit poll rumors from Matt Stoller at Open Left (some surprises, IF they're accurate)

[swag]

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3670


Here you go. I have no idea how reliable these are.
. . .

If these are real, Obama has thrashed Clinton today.

Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Connecticut: Obama 52, Clinton 45
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 29
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton - 37
Delaware Obama 56, Clinton 42
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 47
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 45
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 42
New Jersey: Obama 52, Clinton 47

Arkansas: Clinton 71, Obama 26
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 30
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45


1st wave:
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 46
Utah: Obama 60, Clinton 40
California: Clinton 50, Obama 46

-- These numbers often change dramatically from wave to wave. For example, the first exit poll #'s we got in Iowa showed Hillary in the lead. Over the course of the next few fiften/thirty minute intervals, they shrunk and eventually showed a healthy Obama lead. If these are the first waves (or even the second), they don't mean all that much -- especially hours from polls actually being closed in some of these locations.

-- Tim Tagaris is wrong. You should bet half of your life savings on these numbers, and the other half on Zogby's polling.

Discuss :: (28 Comments) digg it

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I think EVERY Obama supporter will take it!

[Maat]

2. Yahoo!

I hope that they are correct!

[Blue_State_Elitist]

3. But the margin in Georgia

looks a lot closer.


???

[FreeState]

4. delete n/t

[mrreowwr_kittty]

5. It will probably get bigger as the urban areas come in. I still don't think he'll get 70%. nt

[Spider Jerusalem]

6. Georgia polling numbers = 101%???

The margins in georgia for Obama will probably be between 60/40 and 70/30...not 75%; I don't know how reliable the other numbers are--I see CT as ending up much closer; NJ too...either of those is likely to end up with a majority for Hillary; the total delegate counts are going to be VERY close in any case, and there won't be a clear winner emerging from today's primaries. If the overall delegate total stays about even, given the increasingly cash-strapped position of the Clinton campaign, and Obama's polling trends, I'd look for him to get the nomination over Hillary in the next round of primaries; a brokered convention is still a strong possibility, though.

[FreeState]

7. Bumping to show that it was crap :) n/t