Why, in particular, is Obama doing great in caucus states?

[RiverStone]

And having mixed results in primary states....

Thanks in advance for your political wisdom DUers :)

[Prefer]

1. what are caucus states vs primary states

how does that work?

[Emit]

12. Here, try this link

http://usgovinfo.about.com/cs/politicalsystem/a/delegateprocess.htm

The Primary
In states holding them, presidential primary elections are open to all registered voters.

Just like in general elections, voting is done through a secret ballot. Voters may choose from among all registered candidates and write ins are counted. There are two types of primaries, closed and open. In a closed primary, voters may vote only in the primary of the political party in which they registered. For example, a voter who registered as a Republican can only vote in the Republican primary. In an open primary, registered voters can vote in the primary of either party, but are allowed to vote in only one primary. Most states hold closed primaries.

Primary elections also vary in what names appear on their ballots. Most states hold presidential preference primaries, in which the actual presidential candidates' names appear on the ballot. In other states, only the names of convention delegates appear on the ballot. Delegates may state their support for a candidate or declare themselves to be uncommitted.

In some states, delegates are bound, or "pledged" to vote for the primary winner in voting at the national convention. In other states some or all delegates are "unpledged," and free to vote for any candidate they wish at the convention.

The Caucus
Caucuses are simply meetings, open to all registered voters of the party, at which delegates to the party's national convention are selected. When the caucus begins, the voters in attendance divide themselves into groups according to the candidate they support. The undecided voters congregate into their own group and prepare to be "courted" by supporters of other candidates.

Voters in each group are then invited to give speeches supporting their candidate and trying to persuade others to join their group. At the end of the caucus, party organizers count the voters in each candidate's group and calculate how many delegates to the county convention each candidate has won.

As in the primaries, the caucus process can produce both pledged and unpledged convention delegates, depending on the party rules of the various states.

[jackson_dem]

2. Look at which states have caucuses

The other reason is financial. It is easier to buy a caucus than a primary. Obama outspent the second place finisher in Iowa by 6-to-1 despite being from next door Illinois.

[LadyVT]

Not sure, but

In Iowa, for instance, the number of people who participated represented only half the population of San Francisco. So they would be the people with fervor, I would imagine.

[skooooo]

3. I'm trying to figure out what caucus states are left.......

[PretzelWarrior]

4. because when it comes to Caucuses

once you go Barak you never go back.

[Emit]

5. I'd also like to know whether these are open ballot caucuses or private ballot

and whether voter registration/reregistration was allowed.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

16. Minnesota is a caucus state with private ballots. Can't speak for the others.

[NMDemDist2]

NM is private ballot caucus and no registration allowed n/t

[LostinVA]

6. Public pressure for some caucusers

And who/how you can caucus.

[rwheeler31]

The Passion of his supporters.

[William769]

7. It's easier to strongarm a group in public, than one person alone in a voting booth. NT

[LostinVA]

9. What Haruka just said, almost word for word

[no name no slogan]

14. That's not fair, and not very accurate

I've been going to caucuses since 1988, and I've NEVER, EVER been strongarmed into supporting ANYONE. Not even in 1990, when Wellstone was "hopeless" and there was no chance of him getting the endorsement-- and I was a Wellstone delegate.

Besides, there's only two candidates left in this race, both with relatively equal strength. It's highly unlikely there would be any tactics used.

[hfojvt]

31. last night, there were a whole five of us Edwards supporters

standing along the wall in the Obama room. We had one older woman from the Hillary room trying to lure us in and then the beautiful woman that I spent election night 2004 talking to asked me to caucus for Hillary and I said no (and only later thought of the song "I would do anything for you, but I won't do that"). Nobody in the huge crowd of about 400 Obama supporters seemed to even notice we were there, but the crowd roared when it was announced that all five of us were switching to Obama. I am sure any one of us would have gotten a hero's welcome from the 180 people in the Clinton room if that had been our choice.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

17. Posted above: Minnesota is a caucus state with private ballots.

Nobody knows who you voted for. Nobody strongarms you. You show up and vote for your presidential preference, then you do other business, like resolutions and electing delegates to the district convention. So far Obama is doing very well here, so I don't think you can draw conclusions about public/private ballots. One consideration might be that there's more effort involved in caucusing than in voting in a regular primary, so they might attract more strongly committed activist types.

Update: MN just called for Obama, 64%. Private ballots.

[Crunchy Frog]

26. There certainly wasn't any strong arming at my caucus.

No pressure, and everybody I saw already knew who they were supporting when they got there. :shrug:

[ecstatic]

8. It does support the idea of the Bradley effect nt

[DiamondJay]

20. bradley effect exactly

this i definitely think is why Obama cleans up in primaries. He is the politically correct candidate, because if you vote for him you are not a "racist", or cannot be suspected of such, as it is a public vote. thats def why so many politicians are supporting him, to get black votes

[EffieBlack]

22. That makes you feel better, doesn't it?

It's crap, but it's surely very comforting for you - since the alternative must scare the bejeesus out of you!

[jlake]

10. Strongarming and bullying.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

18. Not always. See above. My caucus uses private ballots.

[Crunchy Frog]

28. Yeah, that's certainly what went on at my caucus.

I was strongarmed, I never would have voted for him otherwise. :rofl:

[Gman]

11. Caucuses (Cauci ?) are the easiest to work

Caucus goers are more motivated than a level down which is just plain voting. Going to a caucus involves much more time and effort to participate than simply voting. So, you just identify your motivated supporters, work your network and make sure they get there. Obama has done a superb job in caucus states.

[Misskittycat]

13. Lots of early absentee voting in primary states. This is a factor that

is being largely disregarded by CNN and MSNBC coverage (i.e., I haven't heard it mentioned once). A great deal of the Obama momentum is very recent, and not reflected in early voting.

[cottonseed]

15. Looks like he's doing good in western states nt

[Name removed]

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[paulk]

21. because caucus states bring out the activists and the

motivated. Those are Obama's core voters. They exclude a lot of people also - not everyone can be at a caucus for a couple of hours -some have to work, some can't find (or afford) a babysitter, etc. Caucuses are not necessarily an accurate reflection of how the vote would go in a primary, where more people get to participate.

It doesn't bode well for Obama in a general election that he's losing the primary states and winning the caucuses.

[Truth2Tell]

27. Ding Ding Ding!

Exactly. Caucus goers are generally more educated about the issues and more involved in the Party. A lot of Clinton's support is from voters with a very shallow and celebrity driven view of politics. You know, "weren't she Bill Cleenton's wife? I loved me that Bill Cleenton." Those voters.

[paulk]

29. that has not been my experience

it wasn't my experience at the caucus I attended in Denver.

It was the Obama voters who were uneducated about the issues. It was the Obama voters who had a very shallow and celebrity driven view of politics, as expressed by the supporting speeches, which were poitically naive, contained many factual errors and, quite frankly, outright lies - both about Obama's positions on the issues and Hillary's.

The party regulars, and I know who they are, having been a member of my precinct for over 16 years, almost to a person supported Hillary. Almost all of Obama's support came from 1st time caucus goers, people who I'd never seen before.

Hillary's support was diverse, in both age and race. Obama's was very narrow - mostly young and almost exclusively white (the demographic in my precinct is 50% Latino).

Last night, for the first time, based on these observations, I had to question Obama's electibility in a general election.

[Truth2Tell]

30. I guess everywhere is different.

The active members of my LD here in Seattle have supported everyone but Hillary. It's been an ongoing joke that no one actually KNOWS any Hillary supporters. In our straw poll at the last membership meeting Hillary had like 7 votes out of 100-120 people. Kucinich had more than she did. My LD is West Seattle and surrounding areas, FYI. So I have to question Hillary's electability in the general. Go figure.

[Whisp]

23. open caucus states? well maybe cuz...

people are people without rules deciding who the people are?

[rayofreason]

24. enthusiasm...

...a caucus is all about enthusiasm.

[mrmx9]

25. You can't early vote in caucuses i.e. they represent opinions now not two weeks ago!

Who knows what the outcome in California might have been if there had been no early voting - in January when the ballots went out she was miles ahead. Caucuses represent opinions now - early voting means the primaries don't in many cases!