I expect Clinton to win CA but

[cali]

if Obama can hold it to 10 or so, he'll be in good shape.

[tekisui]

1. I have to say, he has done very well.

He tightened it up in most places. I think CA will split close to down the middle.

[LadyVT]

2. It Will Be Days before we know

The absentee votes will be a huge factor (and they go for Clinton).

[tekisui]

6. The absentees won't be enough to make it anything more than close.

[PretzelWarrior]

9. you have no way of knowing that. therefore

I will say absentees go for Obama. I'm SURE of it. because I too can talk out of my ass.

[truebrit71]

5. I think Obama derails the 'Inevitable Express' in California...

...I could be wrong...but I think Her Majesty is in for a bit of a shock tonight...

[tekisui]

8. Shit. That train jumped the tracks in Iowa. It's been "stop the bleeding" since.

[elixir]

11. Hope and change...can't wait.

[cali]

16. I don't think so. SUSA has been right on the money tonight

and they have him down more than 10.

[truebrit71]

18. He won't lose by anywhere near that amount...I think he squeaks out a win...

...want to bet on your prediction?

I'll bet you a cup of coffee you're wrong...

[BootinUp]

3. I agree, for Clinton to declare any victory it should be over 10.

But they will spin a 5 pointer pretty hard. lol.

[TheDebbieDee]

4. Obama has been surging like mad in CA.........

If Hillary does pull out CA, I think it will be because of early voting there!

[book_worm]

7. I agree. He'll get a lot of delegates to go with his many other states he has won.

[LittleBlue]

10. Agree. I don't expect him to win the delegate count tonight. Latinos will not vote for him.

The margin is 21 according to NBC.

[Raine]

12. If Obama can get 40%

he will get a large share of the delegates...hoping for 40%+!

[Coexist]

13. SUSA has been very accurate tonight, but the Field Poll is not matching them

the Field Poll has 18% undecided though.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18716086

A survey by the Field Research Corp. released Sunday showed Clinton ahead by only 2 percentage points, well within the poll's margin of error. A month ago, Clinton was ahead by 14 percentage points, and Clinton aides say they are counting on voters who cast their ballots early to carry the state for their candidate. If early voters favored Clinton, it could provide insulation against a last-minute wave of support for Obama in the state.

Perhaps most decisive: The Field Poll released Sunday showed that 18 percent of likely Democratic voters were still undecided.




If Obama can split the difference between the 2% and the 12% he is in very good shape, delegate-wise.

[HughMoran]

14. You know it's going to be closer than 10 points!

Much closer - why would you even suspect otherwise when polls last night showed Obama up by 13 points?

[AlCzervik]

15. i don't even try to predict the outcomes here, i feel like i vote once a year and you never what

will hapen, look at the last special election for example.

[NV Whino]

17. Don't count your Clintons before the hatch.

[harun]

19. Over 40% would be good for Obama there and probably leave

him with the delegate lead overall.