How is it possible for CNN to post a Hillary win with less than 17% of the votes in?

[awaysidetraveler]

Can someone explain this math to me? I've worked in statistics for some time,
and I don't get it.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

1. Combination of results and exit polls.

[awaysidetraveler]

4. And crack smoking

[Blue_State_Elitist]

7. Maybe

I don't know anybody at CNN.

[awaysidetraveler]

19. There's more than a little bit of crack smoking here.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

26. How are you so sure?

[awaysidetraveler]

29. I did the math, check my last journal. Then I did the math again.

And I discovered that I'd made a mistake in favor of HRC.

Then I looked at these incoming results in California.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Trends, that is how they do it

I called it over an hour ago for both HRC and McCain, just from differentials and trends. I said, they would within an hour... I'm good, they did

That said, they may still get egg on their faces... but again pesky trends, the gap is not narrowing fast enough

[awaysidetraveler]

6. Dude, you're high--these are not real results.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. You are telling me that the numbers from the SOS

are not real results?

Go check them yourself

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/dem/59.htm

Watched plenty of Cali elections to know that when the big counties come in (such as LA County and San Fran) you can pretty much call it.

[awaysidetraveler]

21. I'm saying that there's no way they called this on 17% of any vote.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. Once again my source is NOT the media

but the SOS page... here are their NUMBERS as of RIGHT NOW

Joe Biden 0.5
Dennis Kucinich 0.9
Barack Obama 33.1
Bill Richardson 0.7
HRC 54,4
Chris Dodd 0.1
John Edwards 10.1 (by the way who I voted for)
Mike Gravel 0.2

Now tell me, with 19.2 of TOTAL precincts in the state who would say is leading. Be honest now.

And if you want to go see how each MAJOR county is doing (LA and San Fran determine a lot of this) you can even go to the SOS website and check a map... or do it county by county

For example LA Barak is at 31
and HRC at 57.9

They are at 8.7% precincts, so unless something dramatic happens... how is he going to catch up?

If he gets to 40% or so state wide, given delegates are split, he'd do better than CURRENT trends say he should

I just report it... and as I said, been a veteran of more than one election night... and by the way, by the time I go to bed, this is not over. They will be up all night

Oh I forgot, here is the SOS page for your delight

http://vote.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/dem/59.htm

[awaysidetraveler]

23. Consider the fact that there's a 5.23% skew against Obama to begin with, and then you know.

Something is very, very fucked up here.

And I'm not the only white guy who should know.

[JackORoses]

8. how can you calculate a trend when much of this is from Mail-In votes?

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. They are counting today's votes

mail in absentee are the last to be counted in Cali

[ursi]

16. they are saying it is a Hispanic vote win so did all the Hispanics mail in their votes?

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. Once again, what you are seeing are TODAY"S votes

last to be counted are abstentee

[awaysidetraveler]

31. You are seeing bullshit.

[gravity]

3. Exit polls and the 17%

I really don't think Obama is going to win california, but the final results will probably be closer

[HopeforChange]

5. It's very distrubing.

They had states all night with 40 or 50 percent where they couldn't call it.

How can they call this like that.

The excuse I heard was we're gonna call it because we aren't going to be here all night.

They want to position Hillary as the Winner to get her some momentum.

[awaysidetraveler]

14. They're trying to shut us down now. I say it's time to take down the media.

There's never been a more obvious sign.

[msongs]

9. mass and trends. when you're already down 200,000 votes its not likley to catch up nt

[goldcanyonaz]

10. They called Georgia with even less than that.

[awaysidetraveler]

35. They knew Georgia by the difference of all the polls. California showed Obama/Clinton as even!

[awaysidetraveler]

36. Even! Even close would make sense! Not a fucking 20 to 25% point victory! That's fucking crazy!

There's no possible way that would make sense in any statistical model!

[PretzelzRule]

12. Probably the same thing that makes it possible

for them to claim that HRC has 4 delegates to Obama's 2 in Washington State when we haven't even had our caucuses yet. (!)

[awaysidetraveler]

34. Yep, I want a link from you to prove this. If it's true, then it's more bullshit instead of votes.

[Lucinda]

37. Those are likley superdelegates. They are independent of the voting.

[L. Coyote]

15. I called it with 13%. For stats, that's a huge sample.

You have to worry it is not al from one area, of course. If you map who is reporting, it is a predictive quantity.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Yep, I looked at map before I went they will call it for both HRC and McCain in an hour or so

the trend was clear...

[awaysidetraveler]

39. You sir are a stoner. What the hell does predictive quantity mean? You're down with lies.

And you deserve to go down with lies.

[AJH032]

17. The same way they called NY/IL with ZERO percent reporting

exit polls

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Now that one I scratched my head

:-)

[awaysidetraveler]

25. This still doesn't account for the mathematical error: 20% polling error against Obama!?!

What the fuck is going on? This is bullshit!

[awaysidetraveler]

27. Look, I am pissed off--that's certain--but this math is impossible.

Why would anyone believe that a twenty to twenty-five point difference between
the polls and the results would be real?

This is bullshit! There's no other way to account for it!

[tabasco]

24. Same way they called Missouri for Clinton.

They're making a SWAG - scientific wild-assed guess.

[awaysidetraveler]

28. So then we're getting a lot of bullshit? This is the death of our party--not a media event.

[tabasco]

40. Well, you do have the option to not watch the coverage,

and just wait till the morning.

I'm not sure why you think it's the death of the party.

[Texas_Kat]

30. Overwhelming numbers

[awaysidetraveler]

32. Overwhelming lies.

[awaysidetraveler]

33. There is only one choice left to decent Americans.

And, we all know what it is.