CA complicated delegate system means delegate split could be a lot closer than pop vote

[grantcart]

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/index.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Democratic_primary%2C_2008
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/4/155020/1046


In a race with two equally matched rivals -- Obama and Clinton are both running well-funded national campaigns -- that tends to leave the winner of the popular vote with only a narrow delegate advantage over a loser who runs a strong race.

Multiply that across dozens of congressional districts -- 53 in California -- and predicting the winner of the delegate struggle is a virtual impossibility.

Then it gets harder.

For the Democrats, in a congressional district with three delegates, two go to the popular vote winner, and the loser gets the third as long as they win 15 percent of the popular vote.

But in a congressional district with four delegates, the winner and loser in a two-way race are likely to divide the spoils evenly. The winner must receive nearly 63 percent of the vote to get a 3-1 split in delegates, and 85 percent of the vote to win all four.

[ursi]

1. our voting system sucks

[flowomo]

2. Obama's people say Hillary will gain 15 more than Obama

according to MSNBC's Todd. Clinton's say +34. So it's somewhere in there.

[MADem]

3. Some clown on MSNBC awhile back said Clinton was going to do VERY well in CA, delegate wise.

So maybe it is the way the votes are spread out...

[grantcart]

4. they will not know tomorrow