THUNDER HANDS
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:19 AM
Original message |
OBAMA WON HIS STATES BY AN AVERAGE OF 28 POINTS - CLINTON 19 |
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Edited on Wed Feb-06-08 01:23 AM by Magic Rat
Average Margin of Victory - Obama
Idaho = 64 points. Kansas = 48 points. Alaska = 46 points. Colorado = 35 points. Minnesota = 35 points. Georgia = 34 points. Illinois = 32 points. North Dakota = 24 points. Utah = 16 points. Alabama = 14 points. Delaware = 10 points. Connecticut = 4 points. Missouri = 1 point.
Total average margin of victory = 27.5
Average Margin of Victory - Clinton
California = 21 points. Arizona = 10 points. New Jersey = 10 points. Massachusettes = 15 points. New York = 17 points. Tennessee = 13 points. Arkansas = 41 points. Oklahoma = 24 points.
Total average margin of victory = 18.8
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Maven
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:20 AM
Response to Original message |
1. Caucuses vs. Primaries |
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Again, an important distinction to keep in mind.
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blm
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:21 AM
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THUNDER HANDS
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
4. oh crap, i forgot that one |
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his margin would still be around the same though. But thanks for catching that.
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quinnox
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:21 AM
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3. Hillary won all the important states except for Missouri |
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and her states were all the most valuable in terms of delegates.
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my3boyz
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
5. And she is still behind in delegates. |
Texas_Kat
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
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According to CNN, CLinton is about 100 delegates ahead.
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THUNDER HANDS
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:24 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
7. and that's precisely because of the MARGIN OF VICTORY |
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which is important.
Clinton needed to put Obama away in the states she won, and she didn't.
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scheming daemons
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
9. Then why did she win less delegates tonight? |
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....and the difference between Obama and Clinton... .and why Obama will ultimately win this... is that he considers EVERY state to be important!
Like another poster said.... Obama is the 50-state candidate, Clinton is the red-vs-blue-state candidate.
Tonight was another data point proving that Obama has a better chance to win in November than Hillary. Obama will win all the states in November that Hillary won tonight (except maybe Oklahoma and Arkansas), but he'd ALSO win states that Hillary CANNOT win.
I think either candidate would probably win in November over McCain..... but Obama, it is clear now, would win by more.
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Dogmudgeon
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:24 AM
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8. What are the population averages? |
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The Republicans played this game in 2004 and 2000, and also had their red/blue county-by-county maps.
Hillary may have won a lot more votes. I think that's the case -- the populations of the states she won are higher. Even ter underperformance in NY gives her more votes than Obama's small states. Alaska wins him about 2000 votes and her, 1000.
It's easy to game outcomes with political races. Delegates are what count, but the popular vote is of tremendous importance in perceptions. It's going to take a day or two to get those final figures.
--p!
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THUNDER HANDS
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:25 AM
Response to Reply #8 |
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what matters is margin of victory because that's how the delegates are awarded.
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Yossariant
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:25 AM
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10. Take your consolation wherever you can find it. |
THUNDER HANDS
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Wed Feb-06-08 01:30 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
12. it's not consolation when you win more states and more delegates. |
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