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What happened to the 17% lead in California for Obama?

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johncoby2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:24 AM
Original message
What happened to the 17% lead in California for Obama?
I saw the polls today, and heard Ed Shultz talk about the 17% lead in California for Barack Obama, but currently he is losing by 22 points.

What gives folks?
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
1. Early/absentee voting heavily favored her, and polls are often wrong. I don't heed them anymore.
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leftynyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:44 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. Me neither
Don't really understand why they keep getting posted. I guess they take up time and energy waiting for results but they've been so off and so many things not taken into consideration (early voting, etc), that they are particulary non-illuminating.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. Maybe, just wait?
:shrug:

We're at 16%.
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El Pinko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:40 AM
Response to Reply #2
11. Definitely. This posts seems way premature, CA is very diverse and has 35 million people.
If the early returns are from the central valley, the results will be drastically different than if they are from LA or the Bay Area.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:42 AM
Response to Reply #2
14. We're at 80% reporting and Hillary continues to rise.
Edited on Wed Feb-06-08 05:42 AM by joshcryer
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kurth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
3. Media shilling for the cult
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Faygo Kid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
4. Zogby sucks. Don't rely on him, Hillbots.
Polls suck generally, and Zogby specifically.
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leftynyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:45 AM
Response to Reply #4
17. I think the Obama people were pushing Zogby
The SUSA poll was being pushed by the Hillary supporters.
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BadgerLaw2010 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:27 AM
Response to Original message
5. Zogby is trash?
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Tiggeroshii Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:27 AM
Response to Original message
6. The polls I saw were going every which way
Edited on Wed Feb-06-08 12:27 AM by Tiggeroshii
I saw polls from Zogby saying he had 17 and 9 and polls from other people saying she had 17 and 13 or whatnot. The way I see it it could end up looking like anything.

They averaged all the entrance polls here:

www.realclearpolitics.com
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JorgeTheGood Donating Member (736 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:30 AM
Response to Original message
7. I posted a couple of nights ago that Zogby ...
worked with the MSM and republican party to skew the polls - contrary to Obama posters that were claiming he is the best in the business ... That is all.
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MarjorieG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
8. We need counter-spin facts
What is the percentage of each race's absentee ballots? What were the polls just post NH, when the Clinton camp looked stronger.

Obama is better on policy, even discussing it, better on content and positioning of it. How to convince others? The Letterman and Hallmark town hall show might have made a difference.

Please don't give me Bill again.

How do we convince voters it's not a done deal, for ones on the fence. Was Boxer waiting to see the win, or not wanting to impact the primary?
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johncoby2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
9. Ed Shultz and all the liberal stations were saying this was a BIG deal!
Are they wrong also?

This means the polls are realy really bad.
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 12:36 AM
Response to Original message
10. Is it really so difficult to post ths stuff in GD:P???
:grr:
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Clintonista2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:41 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. Umm this IS GDP
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dmosh42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:40 AM
Response to Original message
12. polls are now used to stampede the electorate!
You see them posted here all the time with phony results. The pros realized years ago, that people want to be on the 'winner side'. That's why they don't report election results until Calif. closes.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:44 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. Well, exit polling is significantly more accurate than robocalling.
You can't be telling people how things are really, truly moving because that would just upset the whole political process.
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SKKY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 05:45 AM
Response to Original message
18. I'd never seen a poll with Obama up by 17%...
...but it does appear that the early votes, most cast before South Carolina, have fallen heavily for HRC.
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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:17 AM
Response to Original message
19. What happend to the fact that Hillary led in 19 of 21 states 10 days ago?
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adabfree Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:18 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Ha
Sure did...but no one wants to discuss that...at least no one in the Hillster's camp. If they do..the spin and say, "We always knew this was going to be a tight race!"
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #19
21. What happened to Obamas delegate count?
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. She coughed up leads in over half the Super Tuesday states
And managed to hold onto a few like California by having heavy leads she ran up in the early voting, before so many realized the Obama campaign is for real.

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adabfree Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. Yep
Ignore William, he's scared and in a lot of pain...

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:41 AM
Response to Original message
24. SUSA had Hillary up 14%. Polls were all over the map.
and I never saw a poll saying he was up 17%.
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TheFarseer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 07:44 AM
Response to Original message
25. Polls have not been reliable this primary season
I also saw John Zogby saying Clinton was going to win by significant margins in Missouri, Kansas and Colorado and that was on Monday.
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leftynyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-06-08 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. Can we all agree that Zogby
polls are completely unreliable at this point?
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