It is impossible for either candidate to win on elected delegates.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

It is impossible for either candidate to win on elected delegates.

80% are elected, 20% are Super Delegates.
The candidates are tied after half the elected delegates are chosen.
To win with only elected delegates, Hillary or Barack have to win something like 75% of the remaining primary delegates.
Given our methods of apportionment, nobody is going to win anything like 75% of the remaining elected delegates.

So the winning margin WILL come from Super Delegates.

Since nobody alive knows right now whether Hillary or Barack will end up with more Super Delegates, this is a good time to say:

Whoever wins the most elected delegates really SHOULD win the nomination.

That's my view, and it will not change depending on whether that view ends up benefiting one candidate or another.

[smalll]

1. Wow. If 20% are super-Ds, you're right!

I guess this means it probably WILL go to the convention, and we'll have to fight over the Florida and Michigan Question.

[joshcryer]

2. That's what the MSM wants.

A 50 point spread between them.

[jackson_dem]

3. I think SuperD's will be pressured to vote for the popular winner if it comes to that

But one candidate may drop out after March 4 when Texas, ohio, and two small votes.

[cali]

16. there's simply no way that's going to happen

both campaigns have already conceded that. If Obama picks up LA, DC, MD, NE, VA and other states leaning for him, even if he loses by 20 pts in Ohio and 10 or 15 in Texas, they'll still be essentially tied. PA isn't until April 22nd and even that is unlikely to be decisive. The Op is absolutely right.

[ursi]

4. it's going to get interesting ...I'm going to my county convention on the 23rd

and they are going to try to force us to all move over to Clinton's dog pile and then the same will be tried again at the State ...it's going to be a brawl ...especially after all the tricks have been uncovered ...such as out-of-state Hillary supporters caucusing on the las Vegas strip and not being Nevada registered voters legally. They lied and cheated in Nevada already.

[calmblueocean]

5. I'm concerned Hillary won't agree to that.

My sense is that she will tear this party apart before she agrees to something simple and uncontroversial like letting the one with the most elected delegates be the nominee.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. It may well go the other way

It's equally easy to imagine Hillary having an edge in elected delegates, but Obama ending up with more Super Delegates. And Obama wouldn't back down any more than she would.

I can easily see Supers going either way. Obama has been getting more and more endorsements. And I don't consider Hillary the "Party choice."

Almost all Pols want power and influence, and getting the Clintons out of the way opens avenues for a lot of people.

[Konza]

6. Agreed

Unless something dramatic happens this thing could end up being decided on the floor of the Convention. I really don't see how anyone totally dominates the remaining races, but it is still possible. I do hope the decision is left to the elected delegates, even if my candidate doesn't win it would be legit.
I also think this year has taught us we need serious work on how we nominate candidates.
I took place in a caucus tonight. It was exciting but I couldn't help wondering how many voices were left out of the process. How many folks couldn't get out in the snow, the folks who work nights, I'm just saying we need to do better.

[global1]

7. If The Super Delegates Are The Deciding Factor - It Will Take The....

wind out of the sails of the energized Dems and the youth vote. There are a lot of people - young and old, black and white, female or male - that voted for the first time in their lives in this primary because they were inspired - either by a woman candidate or a black candidate. If their candidate loses because this gets decided by Super Delegates - we will lose them for the GE.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. The odds are high that the Supers would follow the trend

There's no clear party preference, so the Supers would be divided as well, and would probably follow the elected delegate preference without even trying to.

But if things are really, really close I guess anything can happen.

[Egnever]

8. I am going to have to agree with you here

otherwise we devide the party. I think we risk it no mater what at this point.

[Eurobabe]

9. B-b-but California is the Big Kahuna!??!?!

According to the media and DUHillbots. :shrug:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. And with good reason!

Winning California is a very big deal. If Obama had won CA tonight I'd consider him the clear front-runner, rather than tied.

[global1]

13. Given His Surge In The Last Week - He Did Admirable In Calif......

I believe that when the final analysis is in in Calif - we will find out that it was the early vote that made most of the difference. I've talked with a friend in Calif that voted early for HRC and she told me that she wishes she had a chance to take her vote back. She realized in the last week that she should have voted for Barack.

[RoadRage]

14. I totally Agree.. if

the Super Delegates elect the candidate who does not have the popular vote, then you will automatically disinfranchise slightly MORE then 1/2 of the voters. Those voters are going to be VERY neccessary to win a General Election.

If one candidate wins the popular vote but is not elected as the democratic candidate, we will absolutely shoot ourselves in the foot and have no shot at winning the General Election.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

15. It's all tricky.

The popular vote winner could win fewer pledged delegates.

The pledged delegate winner could get fewer Super Delegates.

It's a crazy system, though no crazier than the electoral college, I guess.