Will Hillary retreat to Ohio and Texas (3/4), or will she pay to play in WA, VA, MD, DC, NE, LA?

[Unsane]

FWIW the MSNBC Hillary correspondent said he thinks that retreating to Ohio and Texas NOW is the best strategy, and simply let Obama to himself with the next two week's primaries/caucuses.

Don't know if I agree. Should he string off 6 or 7 victories in a row heading into March 4, I don't see how she holds him off.

Your view?

[geek tragedy]

1. It worked well for Rudy. n/t

[Unsane]

3. true

[krkaufman]

38. Damn! You beat me to it... : ) n/t

[smalll]

2. First reaction as a Hillary supporter - I don't like the idea of "retreating" to favorable states.

I wouldn't want to go with the "Giuliani Strategy."

[Unsane]

4. The flipside is that should she contest those states, and lose to Obama head to head,

it may look worse. And she loses money in the process.

[rodeodance]

11. don't be so confident--every one say O.had them in the bag. Think again!

[Recursion]

28. She could do well on the Potomac

But from everything I'm hearing she doesn't have the money to do both well.

Tough call; I think Rudy's example says she has to keep going now

[Unsane]

29. Maryland has the highest black population of any state north of the mason-dixon line

She isn't winning there. And she isnt winning DC. VA? The governor is endorsing Obama and there are loads of blacks, minimal hispanics and loads of affluent whites. It suggests an Obama win.

[Recursion]

30. VA/DC is my old stomping grounds

I think she could take Northern VA, Southside, and the Shenandoah if she contested it, and that could give her the state.

DC, obviously, probably isn't worth much time or money for her.

But I think it would be a mistake to overestimate the strength of MD's support for Obama. Most of the population is suburban, and she's doing well in suburbs. By the "race-only" analysis, Barack gets Baltimore, PG, and Calvert which is about 25% of the state's population. Though his showing in Delaware I guess could spill over into the eastern shore.

[Unsane]

32. 25% of the state's population could = 80% of the primary electorate.

I'd be surprised if she places any ad buys in Maryland. I think Obama wins NOVA suburbs 60-40. Obama will clear out the Newport News areas etc.

[scheming daemons]

5. That would be the Rudy strategy and it would have similar results...

There are 10 states between now and March 4th....


If Obama wins 8 or 9 out of the 10, his momentum will be too much for Hillary to overcome by Ohio & Texas. March 4th is a month away. During that month, if Obama is winning state after state, he gets and air of inevitability around him and the superdelegates start peeling off toward him. Then Ohio/Texas becomes do-or-die for Hillary and she would have no momentum at all.

[MADem]

6. I think she should contest to the extent that she can.

She's probably not gonna kick ass in DC, but she should get in there and mix it up across the board. It doesn't pay to not play at all. These aren't GOP WTA contests. It's pie, and it's important to grab as many slices as you can.

Wins are psychologically important, certainly. But so are DELEGATES.

[rodeodance]

7. I think she will go head on in all

[rodeodance]

8. Hillary has the big MO--swooping up MASS and CA--she will hit them all head on!

[Unsane]

10. Which do you think she wins?

It looks uphill for the next 2 weeks or so.

[jackson_dem]

27. VA?

[Unsane]

31. Kaine is endorsing Obama.

Few hispanics, quite a few blacks, and a lot of affluent white Obama-type voters in NOVA. Good luck with that Hillary! I think there is some merit to her simply skipping the Potomac trimary altogether in order to save money (those are incredibly expensive markets), but we'll see.

[jackson_dem]

34. Kennedy and Kerry didn't do much for Obama in Mass

Hillary ran strong in VA in past polling. It should obviously be closer now but I don't think we can write her off there as of now. I am sure Penn will do some polling to test the waters there.

[Unsane]

36. I liken Kaine to Crist in FL.

He is popular and relevant. But I agree, of the 3 trimary states, VA is the place where she wil be the most competitive.

[aein]

9. You're crazy if you think she can win in Texas. Obama made two stops here, and his crowds were....

...huge. Travis county is an Obama stronghold.

[Unsane]

13. I actually think Obama can win there.

The current narrative, though, is that Hillary is favored in states with high Hispanic populations. TX, to me, is a different animal. The primary is open, and the GOP will not have a race the same day. Obama could see a lot of cross over votes. TX also has high black populations in cities like Dallas et al., as well as a high number of youths and affluent whites. TX is definitely up for gabs. It is not CA 2.0.

[Straight Shooter]

16. Travis County is Austin, a very different flavor from the rest of Texas.

Barack may not fare so well in Fort Worth or Dallas, and quite possibly Houston, as well.

[MADem]

17. Texas has a decent sized Hispanic population. Clinton does well with that demographic. She and her

husband have a long relationship there, too.

I think Clinton could take TX rather decisively.

[Unsane]

19. But after a month of campaigning and 6 or 7 more Obama victories?

We'll see.

[Straight Shooter]

23. Gawd, I completely forgot about the Hispanic population.

When I lived in Texas, that was when I decided I needed to learn Spanish so that I could communicate more effectively.

That was 15 years ago. I've forgotten it by now.

[MADem]

33. They also have many political friends there, and no small amount of organizational goodwill.

It won't be a cakewalk, but I think they have the edge, slightly.

[Hoof Hearted]

35. Crowds. There were big crowds in CA. Went for Hillary.

I know my SIL and her two daughters are going for Hillary in El Paso.

[Quixote1818]

12. They are between a rock and a hard place

If they play and lose in those states they REALLY LOSE! If they retreat and try to hold the troops off in Texas and Ohio the most certainly lose those states and risk losing both Texas and Ohio.

[lvx35]

14. Well,

There is no reason to go to LA. Its Obama country. Probably the same with NE based on surrounding results. I live in WA, and its probably more up for grabs, but WA is such a weird place, I can't see campaigning here being too effective. Something stupid would probably come of it involving black hooded youths breaking the windows of a local Starbucks, but you never know. VA and MD and DC, I don't know the Northeast well enough to comment.

[Unsane]

15. A recent poll had Obama up 13 in WA.

I can't imagine him losing WA.

[Straight Shooter]

20. Howard Dean carried Seattle handily.

Washington is a fairly liberal state, as well as an atypically affluent population. Do you know when their primary is? That would be a factor, also.

[Unsane]

22. Saturday, and it's a caucus.

[Straight Shooter]

24. If it's Saturday, he'll get a bump for sure.

I don't know his schedule, but if he goes to Seattle he'll get a tremendous reception. Seattle peeps are fantastic.

[lvx35]

26. That sounds about right with what I'm seeing.

Lots of Obama support here. Lots of people who could back Hillary too, but he'll probably come out ahead. We'll see how the numbers turn out. To clarify, I think she has a better chance of winning here than somewhere like LA.

[Unsane]

43. Thanks for that.

[scheming daemons]

18. If you think VA, MD, and DC are in the NORTHEAST, then ...

you REALLY don't know the area.

All three are south of the Mason-Dixon line and are part of the old south.


;-)

[Straight Shooter]

21. I'm from Virginia and have heard many people refer to me as being from the east.

I've tried to set them straight, but they won't listen. They insist that I'm from the "east coast." Go figure.

[lvx35]

25. I'm a west coast boy. On the map they are east...

and not part of what I think of as "the south" so thus they are "northeast"

[Recursion]

37. VA isn't part of the south in your mind?

Robert E. Lee is crying now...

Maryland was "southern" for a while too.

(Then again, I spent a lot of my childhood in Biloxi. We thought "Yankees" were people who lived north of Interstate 10)

[lvx35]

40. That's funny.

I guess kinda...though really I think of the "deep south" as the south...though I was the kid who could never figure out why the "midwest" was actually in the east: West-coast centric view...Sounds like we had different experiences growing up though, those were places that only existed in books about the civil war, so they remained in the space between reality and fiction in my mind, like Disney-land. :)

[TheDonkey]

39. I hope so!!! It'll be Campaign Guiliani Redux!

[Meldread]

41. I don't see how Hillary does well in the coming future.

Last I heard Obama has a double digit lead in WA, and that should increase after his good showing on Super Tuesday. At the very least it should maintain itself.

However, employing the Rudy Strategy... ha. That's all I can say to that - a Chris Matthews "ha." There is a possibility that she could win them both, but does that outweigh the embarrassment of flopping big? She's looking at a month of nothing but success after success for Obama, and now right as we are on the cusp of a major wave of Super Delegate Endorsements. She could actually LOSE super delegates if she sustains a string of losses.

Even if she doesn't have a damn penny she should show up in every single state and campaign as hard as she can. She has to keep it as close as she can. Every delegate counts.

That being said, I am in Virginia and I am proud that finally my vote will matter. I am going to campaign my ass off for Obama, and do everything in my power to ensure her defeat here on my home turf. She might be able to poach some votes in the north, but here in the southern part of Virginia she doesn't really stand a prayer. I look forward to a large victory for Obama here in my home state, and I look forward to working my ass off to ensure that he takes the state again in the general election.

[Unsane]

42. Thanks for the info on VA.

[woolldog]

44. Question

Why doesn't she stand a prayer in the southern part of Virginia?

[Meldread]

46. Because...

Because it's more conservative and more Republican. Most of the key democratic victories come from the northern part of the state, near the DC area. They are generally more liberal and more democratic (and more numerous), though in truth they would not be as liberal as most on DU would define it. Additionally, Virginia isn't a state over all that is favorable toward the Clinton's. People here, at least in my area, viewed Bill Clinton as anti-military due to his continuation of Poppy Bush's peace dividends and they will take it out on Hillary. Virginia will be hard to win against McCain, but Obama could pull it off - I am certain of that.

McCain over all is respected here in Virginia due to his military background, but his 100 more years in Iraq will give people enough pause, and Obama's message is something that can resonate with voters here. That is why our Governor endorsed him so early - he's the only one that has the possibility of taking our state. Hillary has zero chance. She would have better luck over in Maryland, but DC has too high of a concentration of African Americans for her to really do well there. That is another reason she will do poorly in the southern part of the state – it has a high concentration of African American voters.

[Glimmer of Hope]

45. I think it is odd that Clinton isn't advertising in Northern Virginia/Maryland/DC.

The Obama advertisings has been pretty heavy.

[Meldread]

48. As I said above...

She won't win Virginia, but to me its a delegate by delegate battle. She has a better chance of keeping it closer in the northern part of the state and that could score her some extra delegates. I am not sure about Maryland but she could certainly poach some there as well. One of the main things she will find working against her, throughout the south and not only in Virginia, is the high concentration of African American voters. Virginia has a larger number of African American's compared to the other states she has won - which, let's be frank, had very few African American voters in relation to the general population. Southern Virginia, which is largely rural has a large number of African American voters to off set the angry white man vote - who would hate Hillary just as much as Obama - those are the McCain voters.

Additionally, if you look at other southern states you'll see that Hillary did poorly in almost all demographics, and Obama came close to, if not out right winning, the woman's vote. Hillary failed to show that she could cut into Obama's base of voters, whereas he proved that he could cut into hers.

[loveangelc]

47. I'm not just saying that because I am for Obama but I think that wouldn't be a good strategy at all

the "skipping a bunch of states" strategy does not work very well...

[ShadowLiberal]

49. Remember when she thought of retreating to the super tuesday states?

Remember when there was a bit of talk of her retreating to the super tuesday states if she lost to Obama in New Hampshire by 10%+ like the polls predicted? Not much of a surprise if they're thinking of this.

There's no way a gamble like this will work, Hillary needs to fight hard for delegates if she wants to win. If Obama gets a 100+ pledged delegate lead over Hillary then it's going to be very difficult for her to win the nomination through super delegates.

If she keeps on getting beaten by Obama over the next few weeks she'll probably start to face pressure to drop out of the race, because it would be very bad for us if the nomination contest went on to like April, or farther.