|
First off, I have been saying for many weeks now that the front-loading of SO MANY primaries into almost a national primary on Feb 5 gave an ENORMOUS strategic advantage to whoever was considered the presumptive nominee at the outset of the election cycle (Clinton) and to the detriment of any late-rising challenger (Obama). Indeed, it is nothing less than politically shocking that Obama has been able to survive through this all-but-impregnable firewall anywhere NEAR as well as he has.
Even though Obama had 'the big mo', the question has been whether he would be able to effectively close the huge advantage gap that Clinton enjoyed over him nationally in polls even as recently as the aftermath of the South Carolina primary. A number of reliable polls showed Clinton leading Obama nationally by 5% or more in the days leading up to TsunamicTuesday. But Obama managed to come out of the night with victories in: CT, DE, GA, AL, IL, MO, KS, ND, MN, UT, ID, CO, and Alaska -- a total of FOURTEEN states, more than just about any pundit was predicting as of one week ago. I am going to assume that NM goes narrowly for HRC, although the difference in terms of delegates is of course small.
The one win -- and it WAS a BIG win in a BIG state that makes a major difference is Hillary Clinton's decisive win in CA. Though polls had shown her comfortably in the lead until very recently, and something over 40% of votes were cast by early voting, much doubt was expressed in many quarters in recent days as to who would win CA. Arizona and NM are also good wins for HRC, particularly NM which really wasn't decisively in her column.
But it is NOT a matter of comparing Utah and Idaho with NY and CA, as some people sneer. Obama carried two top states HEAVILY (Ga and Ill), and more importantly won highly contested states, including MN which I understood was expected to go for Clinton, MO which was highly competitive, DE which was unsure due to insufficient polling, CT which was at least seriously in doubt, and
Utah where predictions were all over the map. In short, he has survived Tsunami Tues still with the big mo and the situation was saved from TOTAL disaster for Hillary only by her big win in CA (again it was important, and is for many press accounts the central narrative -- which reflects, as the fact that pundits said almost every debate, including the one where HRC stumbled over drivers' licenses and began her downward political spiral, a pro-Clinton bias in those quarters of the media.
Now, with the big mo, and (as Jefferson_Dem has noted in a recent thread that I don't have a link for) a very advantageous calendar over the next month, indeed, Obama is the 'odds-on' favorite to be the Democratic nominee -- as also reflected in sharp recent gains on InTrade -- unless blunders, or something like the Rezko case exploding, or some other media feeding frenzy stops him soon. This is why Hillary Clinton's campaign wisely has her seeking a LOT MORE debates, which will give the press enough wiggle room to heavily spin them in her favor.
Now that Obama can concentrate his attention on states more or less one or two at a time, even if he just holds on to his present position without continuing his HUGE momentum, he would be formidable. But the calendar does not point to a likelihood of Obama standing still. Indeed, NE, VA, LA, MD, DC, VT, WA and other locales look particularly good for him. And concentrating in other key states like Oregon, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Wisconsin should have him at least holding his own in, and possibly sweeping the overwhelming majority of, these states as well.
In short, Obama has met and definitely exceeded the standard of expectations I set in several threads prior to Tsunami Tuesday, and definitely outperformed my expectations up until at most a week ago.
OK -- everyone can now pile on and claim that it's just spinning the results. But intrade isn't spin -- this is all people betting their money, with objectivity prevailing, even if it is merely a reflection of momentary "conventional wisdom".
There is apparently some doubt about whether Tucker said Obama will be the likely nominee. Well, I am stating it clearly -- again barring any kind of unexpected MAJOR setback for the Obama juggernaut.
Let the screaming begin.....
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
