There may be some Alamo analogies in Hillary's future...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Hillary will go forward from today with a smallish delegate lead, but the apportionment rules that make things so close today will keep things close tomorrow. It is very difficult to make up even 50 or 100 delegates.

Obama will have a good run going forward... I assume he will win all three contests on Chesapeake Tuesday, Washington State, etc..

So Hillary will be pushed close to even or slightly behind, and the logical place for her to regain an advantage would be Texas. I am guessing her seeming popularity with latino voters will offer chances for delegate-gaining big majority districts. (On the other hand, Tom Delay's buddies redistricted Texas with the stated intent of making the Texas Democratic party "the black party", so there may be extreme ethnic gerrymandering in some Texas districts... don't know how it works out in practice.)

(For all I know Obama is a big favorite in Texas... I am just guessing. Texas prognostications welcome.)

Anyway, we could hear a lot of "last stand" and "Alamo" media imagery in Texas coverage.

[Recursion]

1. I would make a San Jacinto and Goliad joke...

...but if you didn't sit through Texas History in 5th grade it wouldn't make sense

[MADem]

2. Henry Cisneros and a large Hispanic population....

Established political organization....

It's never a good idea for anyone to count chickens. Not at this stage, anyway.

[Unsane]

3. Ohio and Texas will be Hillary's firewall.

She hopes, anyway.

Obama could have a string of victories over the next 2 weeks.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. Or, Obama could blunder, the fad could end, and he could fall fast

For weeks, you guys have been complaining about how Hillary was supposed to be "inevitable" ...

--p!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. I'm a Hillary fan, actually

But it's going to be very hard for anyone to collapse. The apportionment schemes have this thing locked in place.

(To win without super delegates, Hillary or Barack have to win 75% of the remaining delegates)

[Dogmudgeon]

6. You're right about that

Neither side has it locked up, but the idea that Hillary thought she was going to skate to victory wasn't taken seriously by anyone with even 4 years of political memory. Six months ago, I was writing how this race would converge to 50/50, and I wasn't alone. So the idea that Obama's win is inevitable is the same kind of wishful thinking. It's in nobody's interest to conduct a quick and painless primary season.

I think the two of them will form a team ticket. I believe the deal was cut last fall. That's a controversial opinion, and most people here reject it, but the MSM will start pimping John McCain soon and cultivate a heroic narrative for McCain that far outstrips the myth-making being done over Obama. As bad as Tweety has been recently, he will soon have a real, heavy-duty mancrush on McCain. I would not rule out an ABC or Fox TV movie about McCain's ordeal as a POW early in the next TV programming season.

--p!

[robbedvoter]

7. Agree with everything except the prior deal. Would love one though.

[Unsane]

8. Obama-Clinton is OK with me.

[ursi]

9. I hope Obama people are prepared for the caucuses in Washington state

people up there are pissed off that this is what they have to do instead of a primary.

[depakid]

10. Obama does well in the caucus format

probably because his supporters are more enthusistic and more likely to attend.

Pretty lame of Washington to revert to an archaic 19th Century process, rather than hold a primary.