Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Obama should do well in the next few weeks in an overall close race.

But to win the nomination, I imagine Barack will need to win one of those three big states. (And, conversely, I suspect Clinton needs to sweep them.)

Which one can Obama pick up?

Prognostications? Guesses?

[Unsane]

1. PA is further down the road.

If Obama strings together 6 or 7 victories over the next two weeks, I would favor him in both TX and OH.

[avrdream]

2. Hmmm, none of those three jump out at me as being strongholds for Barack.

Maybe Ohio, as there are large college communities as well as African American suburbs. In general, I don't see him creaming Hill in any of these 3. Maybe he should stick with other, smaller states.

Just MHO.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Ohio is his best shot

Pennsylvania is still solidly in Clinton's column.

Texas has a large hispanic population.

Ohio will also pose problems, but it is in a state of political flux, and he has the best chance to build a statewide machine in a hurry there.

--p!

[TheDonkey]

4. OH could possibly swing like MO. TX will be harder b/c the hispanic vote but if he does well

up until then the momentum will carry him.

[donheld]

6. Obama's going to have to do something to draw Hispanics

He has Federico Pena doing some campaigning, but he's really got to do more. Or so it looks to me.

[TheDonkey]

He's policies seem more pro-hispanic than hillary. seems like a lot of hispanics

are just solid in the Clinton camp with blinders on. He could still try to shore up more hispanic endorsements and get a better ground force but I'm shocked that the numbers are splitting so awkwardly. WHY hispanics are so pro-clinton or anti-obama?

[donheld]

10. A Bill Richardson endorsement would be nice

I don't know if Mr Obama will get it, but we can hope.

[rpannier]

5. Ohio is his best shot (IMO)

Clinton has done consistantly well with hispanic voters.

Pennsylvania is hard to tell, but I have relatives there and they say it's Clinton's to lose.

That's why I'm picking Ohio.

But...then again...I went with Edwards in 04 and 08.
So, mine is just a guess.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. That would have been my guess, but it may be Texas.

Many polls in the future...

[OzarkDem]

12. Obama polls poorly in Ohio

Clinton already has a strong base of support here. She will be very hard to defeat.

The only vulnerability is the right wing news media.

[UALRBSofL]

17. I was gonna say Ohio and Tx polls look better for Clinton

But the other states are much closer or in favor of Obama.

[book_worm]

18. yes, we've heard about how well polls show a month or more before an election

when nobody has really campaigned. Obama was behind in 22 out of 24 Super Tuesday states at one point and ended up winning 14 of them.

[BluegrassDem]

7. White Texans in the countryside won't vote for Hillary

She will not do well in the countryside. I don't see folks in Odessa, Abilene, and Lubbock voting for Hillary. She may win among Hispanics, but Obama will hold his own cause the Hispanics in Texas are 3rd, 4th generation Hispanics, like in NM. He will do well. I think Obama will do better in Texas than even Ohio. By the way, there was a poll done some while ago showing Obama with a 6% point lead in TX.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Thank you for that info... I hadn't seen any TX polling at all

[Unsane]

9. Thanks for that. TX is NOT CA.

[mohc]

13. Most recent poll I could find

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=1

Shows Obama closing the gap down to 10 (48-38) with 12% undecided, many of them African Americans. Texas may be more in play than Ohio.

[scheming daemons]

14. There's 6 weeks between OH/TX and PA....

They'll be setting camp in PA as if it was NH.

[scheming daemons]

15. By the time OH/TX comes.... Obama will have a nice cushion...

...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

19. Yes, if Clinton swept OH and TX, PA. would shape up as potentially decisive

At least in terms of perceptions.

[book_worm]

16. All three favor Clinton right now, but that will change.

I think Texas is HRC's best best. She has the establishment behind her in PA, like Obama did in MA, but I think if Obama campaigns hard in PA and OH he will do very well. I think he has the best chance maybe in Ohio, but I don't rule out PA. He should run well in Philly and Pittsburgh. He needs to really work hard to win the Philly suburbs too. I think he will have more $$ to compete which will be an advantage.