March 4th: Who wins in VT, RI, OH and TX?

[cali]

Right now it looks like Clinton will crush Obama in Ohio. TX is tightening up and I think it'll be close. Obama will crush Clinton in tiny VT where he's raised more money per capita than anywhere else and where she's only raised $47,000. RI, I haven't a clue about.

[ccpup]

1. Clinton will win Ohio, Texas and squeak out a RI win

Obama will do fine in VT

[mrmx9]

2. March 4th is a long time away - Iowa seems like years ago yet its only 1 month ago!

Who knows where we will be in 1 month - Obama will most likely take most of the states prior to then and he will be able to target resources at fewer states.

Remember Iowa (seems like years ago) - a month is a long time in this race!

[cali]

5. I don't think you can count on Hillary winning TX

or RI. Ohio is good for her. And she'll be 30 points back in VT.
He's been making gains in TX, so I'd expect it to tighten up further.

[ccpup]

7. the demographics of Texas play to her strengths

Females make up 50.2% of the State with White persons comprising 82.7%. The African-American community is 11.9% with those of Hispanic or Latino origin being 35.7%.

[thevoiceofreason]

8. The Texas female vote is very different from the NY female vote

Barack has also made some good connections with our Latino community. Texas is absolutely in play.

[ccpup]

9. is it much different than the California vote?

Yes, Texas is absolutely in play. I'm not disputing that. But unless Barack can do some serious double-time to expand his outreach into the Hispanic and Latino communities, I still think she'll eke out a slim popular win as well as the lions share of delegates.

[okasha]

21. I think Hillary will take Texas rather handily.

She'll take the Hispanic vote in a landslide; the border area, especially, experienced a phenomenal economic boom during Bill's presidency, with expanding population and rapid job creation. The Ann Richards Democrats, who tend to be liberals with a strong practical streak, will go for her. There are strong LGBT communities in Austin, Dallas and Houston who are going to be reflecting not only on McClurkin/Caldwell but on Obama's heavy support/huge debt to conservatives and evangelicals.

Re which, one of the more interesting results last night was Obama's performance in areas where the evangelical vote crosses party lines, in Colorado, Idaho, North Dakota, and gods-forsaken Kansas, where they keep making creationism official state policy every coulple years. Those states are going to be Republican write-offs in the general.

[WolverineDG]

11. Most of my friends in South Texas are pulling for Hillary

strangely enough, most of my Republican-leaning friends are attracted to Obama. For them, Hillary is too devisive. It will all come down to turn-out.

dg

[TexasObserver]

3. Too early to tell, but relying on old data is a bad idea

Obama can win almost any state if he has the time to get there and campaign heavily.

[Avalux]

4. I'm gonna work my butt off to make sure Obama wins Texas.

Very diverse here; a lot comes in to play. I will be GOTV til I pass out. :hi:

[H2O Man]

6. The next month

is going to be intense.

[LanternWaste]

10. As an aside... Being from TX, it feels kinda odd that my vote

As an aside... Being from TX, it feels kinda odd that my vote is more than a simple declaration of intent this time around-- that my state (and thus my vote) may actually have more weight to it than it has in primaries past...

[WolverineDG]

12. As I told someone in the Texas forum

we're going to feel like Iowans, but without all the snow. :)

dg

[LucyParsons]

14. It would make me very happy if we stopped Hillary

I don't know a single person down here who is for her. Not a single one. I hope that Texas Dems are smart enough to see her for the DLCer that she is and shut her down. I don't know that I trust Obama, either, but I am willing to give him a chance. This turn of events has prevented me from writing in Kucinich.

[LanternWaste]

17. I know a few who will vote for...

I know a few who will vote for Clinton and a few who will vote for Obama. The split's pretty even amongst my friends, co-workers, and acquaintances.

But the good news is that the North Texas Freepers I know who run in the above circles are in the midst of a dramatic abandonment of their ship. And the local party loyalists are reduced to silence when politics is brought up.

To me, that's the best sign we've seen around here in a long, long time,

[snooper2]

20. I know 1 person for HRC-INC

He is from Indian descent and just likes her for some strange reason I can't get out of him.

Everyone else I know who votes and is a Dem is for Obama...

Worried about the Hispanic vote though. He needs to get down here in the next few weeks and kick some ASS!

[angie_love]

13. Do you think Obama has a chance in OH?

[cali]

15. No. If he can close it to 10, he'll be doing well

I do think the can do well in TX and either win it or come close.

[bdamomma]

16. well, as far as RI in who they will vote for, I think they will vote

for the "status quo", Clinton, and as much as I love Edwards and support him, cause he suspended his campaign and did not withdraw, I was going to give my primary vote to him. But, I would love to see RI'ers give someone who is not of the status quo a chance.

[BadgerLaw2010]

18. RI, OH, TX = Clinton. VT = Probably Obama.

[SteppingRazor]

19. I think a lot of that depends on the next couple weeks.

I think Obama will pull out wins in Vermont and R.I., and Hillary in Ohio. But by the time March 4 rolls around, Obama could be ahead on delegates, with wins in almost all the previous primaries (with the possible exception of Wisconsin). That makes Texas a lot closer. I think Texas will be so close as to be a virtual tie in delegates.

Given that Obama will be slightly ahead, but that Ohio is worth so much, our two candidates could be just as close after March 4 as they are today, if not closer.