She'll be the nominee, but it's going to cost her- and us

[cali]

Look, I've been saying all along that Hill will win this. She's the establishment candidate. The only people saying she's not, are here on DU. She'll win, but not until the convention and largely due to SDs and it will damage our chances in November. I'm not saying that the same wouldn't be true in reverse, but the damage wouldn't be as pronounced. At this point, Hillary really doesn't have much choice about a VP pick. And she's certainly smart enough to know it. She can't win without Barack on the ticket. By the time we get to August and the convention, the party really will be split and giving him the VP nod is the only way it can be healed.

[skooooo]

1. I don't see how you can be so certain...

....that she'll win. Things are too close. Anything can happen!

[blogslut]

2. It ain't over till it's over, my friend

There's a long road ahead.

[scheming daemons]

3. Disagree....

....Superdelegates are uncommitted and will "go with the flow".

If Obama wins the pledged delegates, he'll win the nomination. Superdelegates being counted in either camp right now is silly... their votes are allowed to change whenever they feel like it.

[TexasObserver]

4. wrong

Do you really need to post a new topic saying the same thing every day?

Do you think that maybe one person starting so many threads is a bit egocentric?

You have some decent observations, but this thread isn't one of them.

[Dawgs]

5. I'm sorry, but your "optimism" is troubling.

As a fellow Obama supporter I ask you nicely to please stop with these negatives waves.

[joshcryer]

8. Please, at least cali isn't a drone who holds one single opinion.

At least they are being honest.

[joshcryer]

6. I still think you got it backwards, I put her behind simply because Obama wins caucus states.

The next few states are mostly caucuses, he can win them handily. This will create momentum for the larger states where Hillary will need to win (by large percentages). She won't be able to do that unless she eats away at his overall percieved lead in the polls.

[skooooo]

11. What about Texas and Ohio?

Are they caucus states? I know Washington is...

[joshcryer]

34. They're primaries, but Obama could get momentum like he did with CA.

It would put her behind, she needs a delegate spread, not a delegate inching up. Neither candidate wants to go into a close delegate race at the convention.

[ozone_man]

67. Texas is a hybrid (primary/caucus).

· ^ Texas holds primary election and begins caucusing at the precinct conventions immediately after primary elections close. Any person casting a vote in the party primary is eligible to caucus at their precinct location at 7:15 pm of election night. Allocation of delegates between primary and caucus varies among political parties. According to Texas Democratic Party rules, District Level delegates are allocated based on primary elections. At-Large and PLEO delegates are allocated based on state convention delegate sign-ins after caucusing at the precinct and district/county levels.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#_ref-22

[joshcryer]

78. Thanks for the clarification. :)

Didn't know about the lower level caucuses. Obama should do well in those.

[angie_love]

7. Have alittle faith yet Cali, don't go into defeatist mode yet!!!

[mondo joe]

9. I have to disagree. I'm increasingly resolved that BO will win it.

I don't want him to, because I don't want to have to vote for him. But the momentum is on his side.

[panader0]

10. "The only people saying she's not are here on DU"

C'mon, look how many votes he got yesterday. His star is rising.

[wyldwolf]

12. ho hum. Another election, another prediction of a party 'split.'

[ShortnFiery]

13. Her massive ego won't allow HRC to give in, but even with Obama, the republicans will

win The Presidency. Why? We, The People, have permitted The Clintons (either them or their Clintonian DLC MACHINE) to SELECT our Democratic Nominee.

Until THE VOTERS, not "The Clintons" or "The Super Delegates" get THE SAY as to who *exactly* our party's nominee is, then we will continue to LOSE Presidential Elections to The Republicans.

Yet, we keep allowing "The Machine" that The Clintons built RUN OUR PARTY.

ENOUGH! :grr:

[MethuenProgressive]

14. Sorry, but Obama's the Establishment candidate. Who is more Establishment than Teddy and Kerry?

The Establishment Heart and Hero of the Democratic Party back Obama.

[cali]

20. That's just silly

She has more establishment dems in her camp, and that's easily demonstrated- she has a substantial lead in SDs. Her husband is an ex-prez, she has by far the more formidable political machine, and she was the presumptive frontrunner for well over a year- before she even announced.

[Catchawave]

45. Hillary certainly beat them last night ! And Oprah too !

I also think she won more Edwards Dems than BO, who did well in Leiberman country. Heh.

[elixir]

15. If you're scenario plays out, what dems will fill BO and HRC's senate seats?

[robbedvoter]

30. Dem governors - plenty of good choices I'm sure. NY: Anthony Weiner, Marc Green

Illinois - Carol Mosley-Braun, Jesse Jackson Jr? Just off the top of my head.

[elixir]

68. Excellent, so we won't lose anything if they share a ticket.

[CoffeeCat]

16. Cali, I think your thoughts...

...are very well reasoned, and they might prove out.

However, I also think that there are other factors at play too.

Hillary was ahead---just several weeks ago--by 20 points in most states.
The race is now dead even.

Yes, Hillary is the "establishment" candidate. The one who everyone (including myself)
assumed would be our inevitable nominee.

However, now it's a hotly-contested, nail-biting contest.

Obama has so much money. He raised more money than any other Dem candidate--32 million in
one month. He's got definite advantages in states that he can take on "one at a time", just
like he did in Iowa.

Also, those Super Delegates can turn at ANY TIME. It doesn't matter who has "pledged" so far.
They'll all go for the winner, in the end. At this point, that could be either Hillary or
Obama.

[IsItJustMe]

41. I also believe that there are intangibles here that are working for Obama. I can't tell you who is

going to win this thing, but with Obama coming up from 20% deficits in polls from only a month ago, I would say this thing is wide open. I wouldn't want to bet on it either way.

I believe that there are forces at work here that we don't understand right now.

We will see what happens.

[Little Star]

17. There's a long way to go yet. Plus, she is

no longer the establishment candidate. That title now belongs to Obama, thanks to the likes of Ted, Caroline, Kerry and all the rest who tried to drive a stake through her heart.

[pampango]

35. Not sure that a couple of endorsements trumps 35 years of establishment "experience"

in determining who is the "establishment" candidate, although it is funny how toxic that term is to both campaigns. ;)

[Little Star]

56. Ya gotta admit O has the establishment backing......

No other way around that fact. She may have been the "establishment" candidate, but the mantle was handed to him a couple of weeks ago. Remember?

[pampango]

59. Obama's gotten some establishment endorsements of late. Hillary must still have quite a few, since

the superdelegates all are establishment, as far as I know. ;)

[Deja Q]

18. I sincerely hope you're wrong.

And everybody knows she, like McCain, won't stop offshoring or at least reverse the tax incentives so that jobs NOT being offshored would give the companies the breaks.

[midnight]

26. What candidate spoke against this? Edwards.

[pampango]

19. If (who knows what will happen) she is ahead in elected delegates, the SDs would be right

to go with her. While there will be disappointment from the loser's supporters, that is inevitable no matter which one wins. But if your candidate has won fewer delegates in the primaries and caucuses, and the SDs support the other candidate, most of us can adjust to the reality of the way that a democratic process works.

I agree that either will probably have to offer the VP to the other. Whether either would want it may be doubtful, but you would have to make the conciliatory gesture.

[SIMPLYB1980]

21. Why do Obama supporters keep playing up this

Democratic "Split" Do they really want it to happen?

[cali]

31. Because the longer the race goes on the

the divisions that clearly exist, grow. It's that simple. No one is denying that those divisions exist, and if this really does go to the Convention, they obviously become more pronounced.

[TomClash]

22. There are 22 states and DC with 1,706 delegates

that have not been heard from. Hillary leads by about 50 delegates at most, not counting superdelegates. The margin is hardly insurmountable.

Plus, Barack has more cash on hand right now. She needs to campaign and raise money. He doesn't.

[MadHound]

23. I don't think that is neccessarily so

The Clinton camp opted for a front loaded campaign strategy, going for the big Super Tuesday knock out and then being able to coast to the convention. Thus she loaded up on cash early on, called in her favors early on, pulled all her strings early on. Yet Obama withstood all of this, and not only is he still standing after Super Tuesday, but also looks fit and ready to go forward. He's got his money machine cranking out cash, while Hillary's stalled. And frankly, even though the delegate count is virtually tied, Obama has got the momentum going forward, while Hillary is having to regroup and rethink her strategy, and do it on a much lower budget to boot.

It is going to be a long primary season, but Obama could very well pull it off, while Hillary is going to be struggling uphill from here on out. The only thing that she's got in her favor is the super delegates, but those could change.

And somehow I doubt that Hillary will pick Obama as her VP, too much spilled blood there for them to kiss and make up. Rather I think she'll pick Richardson, and will thus be doomed to defeat in the fall, especially if McCain gets the nod, which looks likely at this point. A Hillary candidacy will energize the right and get out their vote, the anti-war left will bail on Hillary, going Green or staying home, and the majority of independents, along with many conservative Dems will go for McCain.

Just my reading of the tea leaves.

[robbedvoter]

24. I think such a ticket would be a win-win

[Raejeanowl]

25. The Cost Is Their Working Relationship

Together, they can't be beat. We have the White House. We have an historical WATERSHED. But whichever way the primaries play out-and yes, it does look like Clinton will get it marginally-how do they heal the breach?

What if the winner arrogantly taps someone else as VP? That worries me the most.

[islandmkl]

27. why would obama want to be on the ticket as VP?

why waste 4 or 8 years running errands (important as some of them might be)...not to disparage H&BC, but I don't see them doing anything at any time to give Obama any strength...yeah, they might embrace him to help her get elected, but once that happens, he'll become the invisible man, not the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Please don't tell me they will worry about 8 years from now and where Obama is poised. Just the opposite, I would say.

[MoonRiver]

40. This is why he will LEAP at the opportunity to be Hillary's VP.

As her VP, in 8 years he will be the Democratic nominee. He will be only 55 years old and at the peak of his political career. This is an opportunity I can guarantee you he will not turn down, if she offers it to him.

[islandmkl]

52. remind who the last VP was that arrived "at the peak of his political career"

after even 4 years being #2...oh yes, Daddy George...different times, different dynamics...beating Dukakis was the highlight of his 'Presidency'...man, were the Dems strong back then! Anyway, look back and let history tell you what to expect.

[MoonRiver]

57. His choice, and I personally don't want him on the ticket.

But he won't be the Dem nominee in 2016 if he's not.

[JeanGrey]

69. Sorry but I don't see it. Obama can take it ALL. Should

Hill be his VP? He should ask Edwards. Who in the world in their right mind would be "VP" in name only to the Clintons? Hill and Bill the rulers, the VP - nobody.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

28. A week is a long time in politics

Obama is still running liek an express train!

[THUNDER HANDS]

29. I doubt he would take the VP spot

if I were him, I wouldn't.

[NoBorders]

32. The news narrative is that they're tied, and the delegates are close too

and the next few states are very possible wins for Obama. If he can keep his momentum, he has a shot at Ohio oand Tx, though those will be tough states for him to win. His candidacy has always been an uphill struggle, but at least now he has a realistic shot, a much better position now than he was in a few months ago.

Don't give up yet.

[zabet]

33. .....

[BenDavid]

36. See, here's the damn problem with many on the obama side..

you lose and you start off saying the dems lose and we all lose....whereas I have seen many many hrc supporters say if obama gets the nomination they would vote for him in hopes we win the presidency....That's the big prize....Hell, if you start out saying you going to lose then chances are you will lose, and that applies to every day life too.....

So, lets all say that when hrc wins we all win and vice versa.....that is not too hard to do, and really we can win this thing....

[cali]

44. Sorry, I believe in actual analysis, and I'm listening to people

who do too. And if you could actually read for comprehension, you would have noted that I said the same would be true in reverse, albeit not as pronounced. I've seen many, many HRC supporters say the would NOT vote for him and obviously this post is not about that. It's about the facts as they now exist.

[Independent-Voter]

60. Bullshit

if/when HRC wins the nomination, you've already guaranteed to push away many young voters and independents. Absolutely no GOP voter is going to cross the aisle for her, unlike the possibility of Obama pulling some of the more moderate and disenchanted GOP members. I simply can't believe that Dems are going to shoot themselves in the foot yet again.

I'm not voting for the GOP in this election, but if Hillary is nominated, I'm sure as hell not voting for her either. Looking over the landscape, I'm not the only one feeling this way.

[JeanGrey]

71. Me, too. I can't believe the Dem party is going to kill itself

once more when for god's sake, republican MEN are voting for Obama! Do you think they will vote for Hillary? Geesh..................

[Skwmom]

37. Are you truly an Obama supporter?

Because some of your posts really make me wonder.

[cali]

46. Yes, really and truly. I'm just not a mindless little cheerleader

I call it as I actually see it. It's called being honest. Try it.

[Skwmom]

62. So is the inference that if I'm a Obama supporter I must be a

"mindless" cheerleader and dishonest to boot?

How anyone can conclude that H.C. is going to win it? Why would an Obama supporter promote that on a public message board - even if they had their doubts they wouldn't express them in such a format for fear of DISCOURAGING others from supporting Obama, for fear of tramping down their YES I CAN attitude, for fear of hurting their fund raising ability (unless of course that was the intent)?

I am an independent thinker, that's why just because someone say's I supporter X doesn't mean I take them at face value. I look at the "content" of their posts.

As far as HONESTY goes, that's why a support OBAMA, because HONESTY MATTERS!

The Clinton campaign seems to think if they repeat something often enough people will believe it. For example:

The media is anti-Clinton.
Clinton is inevitable.
etc.
etc.

[Big Blue Marble]

75. To still believe that Obama can win this

is not being "mindless little cheerleader." I am insulted by your comment.

I, too, have been troubled by your defeatest posts of late. Whether or not you are a mole,
you are not helping your proclaimed candidate by continually posting negative posts
about his chances to win.

Starting a thread with "She'll be the nominee," and then adding that to save the party he should be the VP
sounds like your support of Obama is lukewarm at best.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you are not a mole, only a person who sounds depressed about
this race. But where I used to see you as a great advocate of Obama, I now view your posts as extemely
problematic.

[Skwmom]

76. It's also reiterating the Clinton "Obama as VP" meme to marginalize him.

[Big Blue Marble]

73. I am having that same though lately, n/t

[Independent-Voter]

38. Hillary getting the nod guarantees a GOP win

Look, I'm as middle of the road as they come, voted for Bill, even held my nose and voted for Kerry because Bush is horrible, blah, blah , blah. Bush is handing you guys the White House on a silver platter, and the only thing that could possible stop that is if the Dems give Hillary the nod. Obama, Richardson, Edwards, Biden, my dog, etc, could all hand any GOP candidate their ass, but there is no way in hell that Hillary is going to get a majority of independents to vote for her. She is the most polarizing figure, bar none, of either party's candidates.

Sorry, but the dems have a long history of picking the most unlikeable and unelectable folks as their nominees. Dukakis? Kerry? Hillary? What are you guys thinking?

[stahbrett]

39. Is it a given that Obama would take the VP spot if offered? (n/t)

[Sulawesi]

42. I completely disagree...

Obama essentially tied the overwhelming establishment candidate, and can pull away a bit in the next week or two. The only question is whether Hillary can bring that back down with her muscle in OH, TX, and PA. If the momentum builds and Barack can close those gaps a bit, he might very well have more delegates, more votes, and more states, and run better versus McCain.

Of course, that might not happen...but if it does happen, the supers will line up behind him. The supers are betting on the existing power structure, if it becomes clear that they can CHOOSE the power structure rather than line up behind it, they will choose the candidate that can win.

[Evergreen Emerald]

43. "establishment candidate" who is ?

Look at the endorsements and the people running Obama's campaign. If anyone is the Establishment candidate it is Obama.

[angie_love]

47. LMAO! Thats the biggest crock i've ever heard

Clinton is establishment in that shes been around the scene for decades now. Hello? shes been in the white house for 8 years. Shes extroadinarily well known, the brand name candidate. Obama just came on the scene in 2004 and even then he was still unknown. I love how you try to spin it though.

[Sulawesi]

50. Just take a look at the super delegates...no more need be said...

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

48. Hillary Will Most Definitely Win The Nomination, But I Don't Think It Will Cost Us One Bit.

In fact, I think she's by far the most prepared to defend and counter against the RW attack machine. I do sincerely hope Obama is her VP though, since that would bring an amazing buzz and excitement to the campaign. I think we're gonna steamroll the right in the general election.

[cali]

53. Sure it will cost us. It will cost us if he gets it too.

This won't be over until at least the end of April. The repukes essentially have their candidate and McCain will have it completely wrapped up in less than three weeks. The dems keep battling, the repukes will start attacking big time. The longer it goes on, the weaker our eventual nominee is.

[Colobo]

49. SHE WILL NOT BE THE NOMINEE!!!!!!

Obama will win the next primaries!

[boricua79]

51. Obama should be Prez, she should be VP

Then you eliminate the "all hands to battle stations vs. Hillary" psychology on teh republican side, get independents who are inspired by Obama, and cement Democratic support under a unified ticket.

If Hillary is the prez candidate, we are assured the loss of many independents, and solidified Republican opposition to her candidacy.

obama / clinton is the smart ticket.

[Alamom]

61. I prefer 16 years (or more) of Democratic Leadership to 8.

I agree with "Pet Rock" (upthread). If this is a possibility, Prez. Hillary serving 8 years with Obama running in 2016 as an experienced 8 year vice-prez is a beautiful thought and very possible if we do a good job. I believe we will.

If age and experience were reversed, I would agree with you.

For those thinking (or dreaming) long term, we are in a position to have the WH 16 years or more with a majority in congress and the senate.


That's been the difference between us and the repukes for a very long time. They planned decades ahead. That's how dipshit got to the oval office. That's what they thought they were doing.....setting it up to keep it forever. They underestimated Dipshit's ignorance.



We need to take the WH and keep it as long as possible. That means popular and electable VP's.

[El Pinko]

54. I definitely think she should give it to Barack - and vice-versa should he win.

With all the animosity between the supporters of these two candidates, I think teaming them up would go a ways towards healing things. Their respective strengths and weaknesses kind of balance each other out, too.

In my heart of hearts, I wanted Edwards to get the nom, and would love to see him as VP, but in the end I do think that a Hillary/Obama ticket would be the strongest in the General Election.

She didn't dismiss the idea of having Obama as VP when Letterman asked her about it the other night, so she may be open to it.

[workinclasszero]

55. You give up to easily friend

You quit when there is no path to victory. Obama is on a six-lane freeway to the nomination!!:woohoo:

Hillary is the one that needs to think about being the VP!

[alcibiades_mystery]

58. You are absolutely correct: the morons casting Hillary as an underdog

are either fools or liars. She's virtually a lock on the nomination at this point.

And yes, I don't see how she goes into the general without at least offering Obama the VP slot (which he may refuse).

The split is very real.

[JeanGrey]

72. Virtually a lock? Wow, a river in Egypt?

[JeanGrey]

63. I totally disagree. I really think Barack is going to get it.

He will end up with more delegates than her. If she tries to wrest it from him it will be nasty and she won't get it. And he won't ask her to be his VP. I'm hoping for Edwards.

[KoKo]

64. It would be an incredible ticket. But, we still haven't

suffered through the Big Guns of the MS Corporate Media...and who knows what could happen with that.

If we want a Democratic Party that starts to listen to it's Progressives...then a Hillary/Obama ticket would give us a fighting chance.

I still wish for Al Gore...but it isn't gonna happen. Still a chance to have Obama's younger advisors get a chance to bargain themselves into the Clinton camp (breaking the hold that Bill and Hillary have with the same old team of Madeline Albright, Robert Altman, Robert Rubin, Mark Penn, DLC, Neo-Cons and the scores of other hacks)to bring change would be incredible to see. Hillary will have to give up some of her closest supporters to have a winning ticket. I wonder if the Clinton machine would be willing to go that far. If they don't then we could lose with an Evan Bayh or some other milquetoast, if she makes a choice that's safe for her and Bill. It's Bill's influence that has to be kept out...and is that possible?

[ronnykmarshall]

65. I really want him to be VP if Hillary wins.

[madrchsod]

66. that`s not going to happen

we still do not know who is going to win this primary. how many first time voters will walk away is what the party has to worry about.

this election is about the young first or second time voters of this party not whether the party is going to heal itself

[Raffi Ella]

70. You say that like it's a bad thing cali.

I would be ecstatic with that outcome.It would guarantee us 16 years of Democratic Rule.

[cali]

74. It's a bad thing for dems that this battle is going to continue

for months and that the acrimony will increase. If Clinton wins and Barack isn't on the ticket, it will be a very bad thing.

[Tropics_Dude83]

77. Al Gore was a broken man and widely reviled outside of the dem base

Al Gore was a broken man and widely reviled outside of the dem base after spending 8 years with the Clintons after being incredibly popular in 1988 and 1992.

Obama would be insane to take the VP slot. We also all know that Clinton couldn't care less what Obama's views are as VP. Bill is her effective VP and de facto co-president.

Vice Presidents go to funerals and that's it. Hillary, after someone has the "audacity" to try to take what she fervently believes she is entitled to, will relegate him to the backrooms.

Let there be no mistake. He would be to the Clintons what Powell was to Bush. A token "black guy" to make them look good.

[Thrill]

79. Hillary will never be President

[Colobo]

80. Obama will be the next president, cali. Relax and wait.

He will beat Hillary Clinton for the Dem nomination, I'm telling you.