Who won the "expectations" game?

[kentuck]

Hillary or Obama? Did Hillary do better or worse than expected? Or did Obama do better or worse than expected? They are both super candidates. But who expected Obama to win California? But who expected Hillary to lose Missouri and Minnesota? Or Colorado?

[underpants]

1. I expected better of you

:bounce:

The expectation game-where pundits can measure candidates by how THEY did as compared to what the pundits said they would. It's good work if you can get it.

[kentuck]

3. I'm sorry...

I guess no one here had any "expectations" either way, regardless of the pundits??

[Dawgs]

2. I think it was a draw.

I expected Obama to do better in Cali and Massachussetts. I was surprised with his wins in Missouri, Connecticut, and Colorado.

I expected Hillary to do better in some of the smaller states. I was surprised that she did so well in Tennessee. I think the early voting really helped her.

[TexasObserver]

4. Obama won the expectations.

A week ago, most media outlets were still reporting that Hillary was ahead in 19 of 22 Super Tuesday venues. Obama won a majority of states. Citizens don't know about delegates, and don't follow the delegate totals. They notice who won which state.

In middle America, EVERYONE expected Hillary to win New York and California, so no one is surprised about them. But no one expected Obama to beat Hillary so badly in so many states in the middle of the country.

Make no mistake, this was a big victory for Obama and an "escaped by the skin of her teeth" draw for Hillary. She needed to win big, and she didn't. He needed to prove he could win a bunch of states, and he did.

[kentuck]

6. I think you may be right.

Just a week or two ago, I recall that Hillary was the favorite to sweep most of the states on Super Tuesday - except for 3 or 4 in the South. However, just a day or so ago, the Obama supporters thought Obama stood a good chance of winning California. Maybe they were a little too exuberant but overall, I tend to agree with you.

[TexasObserver]

7. Zogby blew it with his ridiculous last minute poll comments

He's officially on my shit list for pollsters now. He impacted expectations with that stupid poll, and that's not good. Their role is to accurately predict, not pull a rabbit out of their ass.

[Yossariant]

5. This link is from before the polls close, though it ignores MA, my favorite primary result.

The Fix
by Chris Cillizza

Super Tuesday Viewer's Guide

Tonight promises an embarrassment of riches for political junkies. With 24 states holding either a Democratic or Republican vote for president, there is -- dare we say it! -- too much to read and watch.

As always, The Fix aims to cut through the clutter for our community of readers. Below you'll find our viewer's guide to tonight's festivities -- everything you need to know (and watch) all night long.

7 p.m.: Polls in Georgia close. The Peach State could be a good prognosticator of what the rest of the country holds for the Democratic contest between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). Georgia is a likely win for Obama given its 30 percent black population...

8 p.m.: The big enchilada in terms of poll closing times with nine primary states and a caucus (Kansas Democrats)...

On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have a few likely wins during this hour. For Obama, Illinois and Alabama will almost certainly go his way. For Clinton, Connecticut and Oklahoma should be wins. That leaves a handful of jump-ball states including New Jersey and Missouri...

9 p.m.: Clinton should get a nice boost between 8:30 p.m. (when Arkansas' polls close) and 9 p.m. when the polling places in New York shut their doors. Both states look like relatively pedestrian victories for Clinton and should be called almost as soon as the polls close. Anything short of that scenario could spell trouble for Clinton.
Many of the caucuses -- Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota -- will be announcing their results around this time as well. Those should all be Obama wins and should allow him to push back against the Clinton victories in New York and Arkansas...

11 p.m.: California, the state we've all been waiting for all night, finally closes its polling places.

On the Democratic side, Obama has made up ground rapidly and enters Election Day with a 50-50 chance of carrying the state. There are really two fights at work in the Golden State. The first is the practical fight for delegates, a battle that seems almost certain to end in something close to a draw due to the proportional manner of winning delegates by congressional district and the differing areas of strength for Clinton and Obama. The second, and perhaps more important fight, is one of perception. California is by far the biggest Super Tuesday state. Combine that with the fact it is the only state with polls that close at 11 p.m. and it's easy to conclude that the eyes of the political world -- and the average voter as well -- will be directly on it from 11 p.m. on. A victory here will leave a strong impression before we all go to bed and get ready to sift through the Super Tuesday detritus on Hangover Wednesday...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/02/the_fixs_super_tuesday_viewers.html