Obama is the clear winner of Super Tuesday

[Moh96]

Before I begin this analysis, I must indicate that this is not how delegates are counted, it is win based on districts won in each state, but it gives us a clear and early idea on who won the most delegates on Super Tuesday based on the popular vote vs. delegates assigned to each state.

The way I calculated this statistics is by multiplying the percentage won in each state by the amount of pledged delegate assigned to it
You will see that the total does not add up to the total delegates in some states and that is to the fact the Sen. Edwards have won some percentages.

For example, in the state of Idaho 18 delegates are at stake
Sen. Obama won 79% of the vote so 0.79 x 18 = 14.22
Sen. Clinton won 17% of the vote so 0.17 x 18 = 3.06

Actual delegates won
Sen. Obama won 15 delegates
Sen. Clinton won 3 delegates

So you can see that it is not completely accurate but it is very close

Here is the whole 22 states breakdown

State_____________Obama______ Clinton

Missouri__________35.28_______34.56
Alaska____________9.75________3.25
California_________155.4_______ 192.4
Arizona___________23.52_______ 28.56
New Mexico_______12.74_______12.48
Utah_____________ 13.11________8.97
Colorado_________ 36.85_______17.6
Idaho____________ 14.22________3.06
Minnesota________48.24________23.04
Connecticut_______24.48_______ 22.56
Kansas____________23.68_______8.32
North Dakota______7.93________4.81
New Jersey________47.08_______ 57.78
Massachusetts_____38.13_______52.08
Alabama__________ 29.12_______21.84
Delaware__________ 7.95________6.45
New York_________ 92.8________132.24
Tennessee________27.88_______36.72
Arkansas_________ 9.45________ 24.15
Illinois___________ 99.45_______ 50.49
Oklahoma________ 11.78_______20.9
Georgia__________ 58.29_______ 26.97

Total Delegates____827.13______789.23

Now here is why I think Sen. Obama is on his way to win the national Democratic nomination:

If these primaries and caucuses were held a month ago we would have never seen Sen. Obama is even close to that number, in fact, I believe it would have been 2 to 1 in favor of Sen. Clinton.

So we can clearly see that Sen. Obama is doing great with time, he has been like a rocketing unstoppable stock where Sen. Clinton has been very steady.

Now, with this in mind if Sen. Obama were to loose by small margin, like 100 to 150 delegates, he would have been still in great shape as his stock keep rising with time and there are still so many states still at stake here.

With Sen. Obama winning with these popular vote statistics 827.13 to 789.23 I say with clear conscious that we are looking at the new Democratic Nominee and in fact, THE NEW PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

[Nimrod2005]

1. Of course he did

[MH1]

2. Obama won MO

MO has been called the "bellwether" state.

It also shows the networks have learned not one damn thing from 2000 and 2004, or that they make these erroneous early calls ON PURPOSE. (They called MO for Clinton before St Louis returns were in. Duh.)

Incompetence or deliberate malfeasance?

Hmmm, sounds like a question we are all familiar with.

[PresidentObama]

7. With all due respect, the margin was small. Very small.

Hillary won almost every county. Minus where St. Louis and Kansas City are.

And she'll get a decent amount of deleages.

I said late last year, Hillary couldn't win Missouri. I thought Obama would crush her here, and I thought even though he dropped out Edwards would a decent amout of votes from supporters. But Hillary held her own, and was able to make it almost a tie.

[Deep13]

3. The spin cycle is making me dizzy.

HC has a slight lead in delegates and did not rely on packing caucus halls in red states we will never carry to get them. (I'm not including the gulf states in that assessment, obviously.) After SC you all were telling us to put a fork in her because she was done. Well, not quite.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

4. .....welcome to DU

[cloudythescribbler]

5. Superb analysis and number-crunching; for a parallel narrative, see:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4429972

K & R

[Moh96]

6. Thank you for the nice reply

I will read your topic as it seems to have great information

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Moh96]

9. What does me being new here have to do with anything

Beside I am not spinning anything
like I said in the beginning this is not how delegates count
but with this analysis you can see the Sen. Obama has won the popular vote
NO Doubt about that
yes its a small margin, but guess what even if we have lost today by small margin, it would have been great because the rest of the states is going heavily for Obama

so now that we have won by small margin or according to you a virtual tie
I am so confidant that we Obama will win this nomination


I would love to know what is your point on me being new
yes I am new to this site but I am very active in facebook Obama discussion and the only reason I found this great site is that facebook server is acting funny now and I was looking for new sites and I found this great one

Thank you though for reading my topic

[Thrill]

10. He is the winner. But because of his huge gains in White Men and Women

I just think that says it all. Everyone is going his way. You know he is going to sweep DC, MD, and VA

[jillan]

11. Then why is he all over the msm calling himself the underdog?

:shrug:

[Imagevision]

12. Hillary simply isn't strong enough to defeat Obama, (no heart or street smarts)

[TexasObserver]

13. good work.

There will always be those who think their time at DU as a member vests in them some special privileges, and licenses them to attack newcomers. It's against the rules. The best thing you can do is completely ignore them, not even respond to them (that's what they want, to drag you into the mud, then report YOU), and put them on Ignore. You won't miss them.

[Blue-Jay]

14. Declaring a "clear winner" is not accurate.

Certainly some have said that a tie is equal to a win, considering the states who voted on Tuesday. It is true that that many of the states who voted were expected to trend more towards Sen Clinton than they did in the final count.

Still, it's mostly a tie. Proclaiming a "winner" right now is just wishful thinking.