For the Dems, a Dead Heat Gets Hotter

[DeepModem Mom]

TIME: For the Dems, a Dead Heat Gets Hotter
By JAY NEWTON-SMALL/CHICAGO AND KAREN TUMULTY/NEW YORK
Wednesday, Feb. 06, 2008

....Underdog is a mantle (David) Axelrod refuses to shed, even though Obama now leads in overall fundraising and state victories, with 15 to Clinton's 12....Still, both campaigns believe the primary calendar over the next few weeks will be more friendly for Obama. He is expected to do well in this weekend's caucuses in Washington and Nebraska and sweep next Tuesday's Beltway cluster of Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia, which have a large number of upscale Democrats and African-Americans. And he goes forward with a growing financial advantage, having raised $32 million in January — largely from small donors who can be tapped again — which was more than twice as much as Clinton's $13.5 million take. If anything, the Super Tuesday results are likely to bring in an even bigger flood of contributions.

But in early March, when Ohio and Texas hold their primaries, Clinton is counting on recouping whatever ground she loses over the next few weeks. Ohio is a state in economic distress, and has large numbers of blue collar Democrats who have been her strongest supporters. Clinton also expects to draw upon institutional support from organized labor. In Texas, her strategists say, the large number of Latino voters will give her an edge, as they did in California. If the race continues to be close, the last big contest, Pennsylvania's April 22 primary, may well be the decisive one.

If that still doesn't bring clarity, there may be only one way of avoiding a vicious floor fight at August's Democratic National Convention in Denver. Both campaigns have been putting intense focus over the past few weeks on the roughly 800 superdelegates — party insiders including elected officials, national committee members and state chairmen — who get to vote at the convention by virtue of the positions they hold. The superdelegate concept was created by the party after the 1980 election for just this sort of eventuality, and they are the closest modern equivalent to old-style clubhouse politicians. The Clinton and Obama campaigns have been courting not only superdelegates, but their political advisers and even their campaign donors. Those close to committing one way or the other have been hearing from the candidates themselves.

Neither campaign will publicly divulge its precise tally of superdelegates. However, one Clinton strategist said she had 257 commitments from superdelegates, with another 11 "in the wings," going into the Super Tuesday balloting, having picked up an additional 14 in the previous five days. The Clinton campaign estimated Obama's total at 159, leaving around 370 superdelegates still up for grabs. However, Obama campaign manager (David) Plouffe insisted in an election-night conference call with reporters that the disparity between the two campaigns' superdelegate tallies was far smaller, having narrowed to around 55. "We've made a lot of progress," Plouffe added....

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1710290,00.html?xid=site-cnn-partner

[K Gardner]

1. My advice to Obama would be : Camp Out in Ohio. If he concentrates enough of his

time there and gets enough exposure via local TV, rallies and concentrated campaign effort, he can win Ohio or at least cut her margin down to low single digits.