Serious Question, Hillary Supporters. How Does She Plan To Win Indies?

[TwilightGardener]

We all know by now that Obama seems to appeal to Independents and even some moderate Republicans. Some of that appeal is unintentional, by lacking the Clinton 90's negative baggage and by being a fresh face. But he also reaches out to them intentionally, by crafting a message to them of respect and inclusion, with an emphasis on pragmatic problem-solving over partisan warfare. I hear assurances from Hillary supporters that Hillary can beat McCrazy, and I assume this to be true myself to some extent, because I think he simply has fatal flaws: age, health, temperament, his war plans, his lack of economic knowledge, his lack of a health care plan.

However, we cannot rely on our opponent's weaknesses to carry us. I've heard Hillary supporters here say that she is tough and will fight him better than Obama can. But, a lot of potential Indie voters don't like that sort of ugliness and low-down politics (which may be why they're Indies). That's the sort of thing just might make people remember what they DON'T like about her, and send them straight into the War Hero's camp, I'm afraid. So I'm asking all Hillary supporters: What is her POSITIVE, PROACTIVE plan to appeal to Independents and crossover moderate Repubs? Not fighting, not political jujitsu, not assumptions that everyone will see McCain as a doddering old WarPig, not going hawkish or moving to the right or triangulation--what does she plan to do to DRAW them to her in a positive manner? I hope to be reassured here, because while I think she'll pull out a win against McNasty, I believe it will be a closer contest than with Obama as nominee.

[displacedtexan]

1. As Jim Hightower told me a few years ago...

"Ignore the fence-sitting fuckers and register 10% more Democrats."

Looks like that's happening this year.

[TwilightGardener]

2. "More Democrats" is not a plan. Not when we have an opponent who

does have some appeal with the fence-sitters and even some Dems (as often witnessed by admiring posts on this very forum).

[TexasObserver]

11. That was before he supported Ralph Nader in 2000.

But I still like him and respect him.

He's a good guy. I helped him fund some of his races back in the day. I also went with him to Washington on more than one occasion to lobby for progressive items.

[TornadoTN]

15. Where do you suppose those 10% Democrats come from?

They have to come from somewhere and most see themselves as Independents. To get them to join the party you have to show them something that attracts their attention and represents their personal values.

Hillary has 0 independent appeal and that will hurt a great deal in the General.

[jeffrey_X]

60. You don't think we tried that in 2004?

that's the best you can do?

[Deja Q]

3. This is GD-P. Nothing serious is allowed here.

:P

[Capn Sunshine]

22. That's right. If you want serious, take it to the lounge. It's life and death there

[paulk]

4. by choosing him as her VP?

[rinsd]

5. Problem solved then

:-)

[katty]

13. indeed, problem solved...and why does Barack keep saying

that Hillary was her friend before this (race) and will be her friend after? Why does he need to say that to his supporters when he knows most are so anti-Clinton?

[TwilightGardener]

14. Sorry, that doesn't solve the problem. Not at all. You need to tell me why

she can win on her OWN merits among non-Democrats.

[NJObamaWoman]

17. Thats if he accepts. Just proves that HRC shouldn't get the nod

[paulk]

35. of course he'll accept

he wants to be President, and eight years in the executive will help him a lot more than eight years in the Senate. That's why he ran when he did - he knows how hard it is to run once you have a voting record that the other party can hang around your neck.

Obama will accept the VP slot in a heartbeat, and I expect, if the situation were reversed, for the opposite to be true.

[totodeinhere]

48. Not necessarily.

If Obama were to become Hillary's VP, then he would have to be her puppy dog for the next four or eight years. But if Obama stays in the Senate he will be able to say and do what he wants, and if Hillary loses in the general then Obama is the instant front runner for 2012.

It is also quite possible that Hillary would not offer Obama a place on her ticket. She might feel that Obama would overshadow her in the campaign and besides that she can probably beat McCain without Obama on the ticket.

However, this may all be academic since Obama has at least a 50% chance to get the nomination for himself.

[City Lights]

25. She doesn't get to choose him. She offers. He accepts or declines. eom

[TwilightGardener]

27. Exactly--what happens if he declines--who else does she have on deck to appeal to Indies?

The VP Plan is not really viable. She needs to create appeal on her OWN.

[paulk]

37. The VP is generally a group decision, where the whole party gets

to weigh in. The candidate that the party believes will best win the White House will be asked. No politician who expects help from the party in the future is going to decline that invitation. If Obama (or Clinton, for that matter) is asked to be VP they will accept.

[TwilightGardener]

6. Crickets, so far. Hillary supporters, where are you?

[Bonobo]

7. Exactly. Also, do people here recognize that MOST Repubs do not vote in their self-interests?

People are rarely one thing at any given time let alone over the course of their whole lives. They are complex. Take a snapshot of a bigot, or a racist, or a self-interested single white republican, or a soldier who has grown up in a military family...

Most of them are still redeemable as people and can be changed. We can probably throw out 20% of them as impossible to change and just plain fucked up, but the idea of a Republican party having 50% and Dems having 50% is ridiculous when you consider how unfairly money is distributed in this society. How can it be? The answer is because people have been deceived by partisan politics that divide. Minor issues compared with the larger one of economic fairness as just one example.

So these bigots, these racists, these blue-collar bread and butter types who were unfortunate enough to grow up with Republican parents, these people do change, will change over the course of their lives.

They will change if given the opportunity and correct conditions. Obama appeals to a BROADER amount of people. That's all there is to it.

[Carrieyazel]

8. Disagree that Hillary will pull out a win against McCain.

But Obama will also have problems. Facing a candidate who also has independent appeal in McCain.
Hillary's not the type of candidate to pull in Indies, but a McCain nom presents huge problems for both.

[TwilightGardener]

12. She probably will, because of the weaknesses of McCain. But I want to hear

a plan other than counting on our opponent's weakness.

[TornadoTN]

19. Hillary is so polarizing, I'm not sure it's a sure thing if she gets the nod

The only thing that I have seen so far is a Republican party that is fractured and splintered. McCain will need to unite that party to be viable and what better way to do it than to remind people of Hillary's positions and some of those that mirror his. Bring up Bill a few times and you instantly have a hastily glued together GOP that will stop at nothing to defeat Hillary.

Nothing unites Republican's more than a Clinton.

[NashVegas]

78. Hillary Clinton Is Not Polarizing

Rush Limbaugh is polarizing.
Ann Coulter is polarizing (even if she says she likes Hillary for this cycle).
Glen Beck is polarizing.
Michael Savage is polarizing.
Drudge is polarizing.
Bill O'Reilly is polarizing.
Sean Hannity is polarizing.
Bill Kristol is polarizing.

And they are as united against Hillary as they are united against every Democrat with the ability to get something done.

[OHdem10]

9. Please do not forget. That doddering old man hurt Obama

in NH. McCain got the Indie Vote in NH. They brought him
back to life.

[TwilightGardener]

10. Who got more overall votes in NH? Mccain or Obama? McCain's experience

in both NH and SC was due in large part to his famous campaign history there in 2000, made more compelling by media attention to how he'd do this time around in those states--it's not indicative of how he'll perform against Obama nationally.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

16. Obama was way up in bogus polls and McCain was lagging

Some indies may have decided to vote for him because they figured Obama had it in the bag.

[OzarkDem]

18. Its the wimmin

We will choose the winner in this year's election, remember?

[TwilightGardener]

21. That's not the question. The question is very narrow and specific--

how does she appeal to INDIES and fence sitters and non-Democrats?

[OzarkDem]

23. Most of your swing voters are wimmin

Have been the deciding factor for the last several years if not longer. The GOP figured it out, Dem leaders, not so much. THAT was a major reason why they began losing so many elections in the 90's - GOP learned how to appeal to women swing voters while Dem leaders and strategists ignored them.

Dem leadership has always been too embarrassed to admit they are the party of women voters.

[TwilightGardener]

26. So...you're going with the "Vagina" plan to combat a war hero. That's comforting.

[OzarkDem]

29. Nice

Yes, we all know the only issues women care about are their vaginas. Or at least that's the way Obama supporters see it.

[TwilightGardener]

31. You said she would win because of identity politics--women voting for a woman.

That boils down to having a vagina. I'm not insulting women voters--YOU are. I happen to be a woman who supports Obama, myself.

[JackORoses]

44. You certainly are a Peach

[City Lights]

55. And yet it's you who refers to women as "wimmin."

:puke:

[Nimrod2005]

20. She won't

[Proud2BAmurkin]

24. Serious answer: Neutralizes McCain on national security and KILLS ON THE ECONOMY

[JackORoses]

46. she neutralizes nothing on National Security, she is a Flip-flopper.

We have already seen how that works out.

McCain's Main Issue is Iraq, that is Hillary's greatest weakness.
He will use it to take her down.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

57. she hasn't flip flopped on anything.

[JackORoses]

77. Didn't she support the War before she was against it?

[ursi]

28. Hillary doesn't like them right now ...she'll be kissing their asses if she wins the nomination ...

so we shall see what happens

[Perry Logan]

30. Relax. Hillary appeals quite strongly to normal (unclintophobic) people.

And she has an excellent record, to boot.

[TwilightGardener]

32. Evidence, please, of appealing to Indies/non-Dems.

[paulk]

38. her Senate victories in Red upstate NY?

Where she won red counties that no Democrat has won in 50 years?

You know - one of the main arguments by progressives against Hillary is that she's too much of a centrist. Strangely enough - most independents are in the center, where elections are won and lost. It would stand to reason that in the general election Hillary would win this group, wouldn't it?

[TwilightGardener]

41. Please--red NY is nothing like red anywhere-else. I have relatives there.

Rudy dropped out, Lazio was a joke.

[paulk]

50. I have relatives there also - many, many of them

I grew up there and my (extensive) family is spread out over -

Tioga, Broome, Tompkins, Chemung counties. It is every bit as red as the reddest parts of Colorado, Wyoming, or Nebraska - other red places I've also lived and worked in.

What you are saying is not close to being true, in my experience. I've heard this argument before and I'm quite frankly sick of it.

[TwilightGardener]

51. You can "be sick" of it all you want. NY is a blue state. Even the Repubs are

Democrats, and she had no serious Republican opposition the first time around, and the second time, she was an incumbent. Your argument holds no weight.

[paulk]

56. that's it

I'm am absolutely fucking sick of this shit.

Talking to you Obama kiddies is like talking to a wall.

Stone headed know it alls like you are one of the primary reasons I can't take Obama's campaign seriously.

Nothing gets through.

Nothing.

-------------------------


Don't tell me I don't know what I'm talking about when I grew up there!

I've had enough. I'm putting you on ignore.

You are not worth the aggravation

[TwilightGardener]

58. LOL! It's frustrating not to be able to come up with a good argument, isn't it?

[mtnsnake]

83. I am sorry, but that is absolutely FALSE red NY is "nothing" like red anywhere else

I live in a red area of northern NY. I've also spent enough time in red areas outside of NY, including the South and West, to know that the voters from red areas of blue NY and the voters from red areas of red states have more in common than you could ever imagine. If you don't believe me, I'll take you by the hand and stroll you through some red areas of NY, let you do some personal interviews, and then see what kind of conclusions you draw.

Don't tell me that red NY is "nothing" like red anywhere else. It might not be AS extreme, but it's got enough going for it, in terms of redness, that you can't say it's "nothing" like red anywhere else. Gimme a break.

[FVZA_Colonel]

36. The question remains: how many of them really are "un-Clintonphobic?"

It's my honest hope that enough voters would judge her on her own merits as a politician and not because of the garbage from the 90's, but I'm just not certain that enough of them would to come to the Democrats (especially with McCain running for the Repubs).

[Silent3]

33. If you're worried about these way-before-November polls...

...that show Obama with a few points advantage over McCain vs. Clinton against Obama... don't.

When independents have had the choice between Clinton and Obama, a few more have gone to Obama. So maybe you can interpret that as meaning, Clinton won't do quite as well as Obama vs. McCain. Maybe.

But that doesn't mean that Clinton still can't do well, and it certainly doesn't mean that seven months from now (an eternity the way things have been shifting back and form) McCain will appeal as much to independents.

Anyone who would chose Obama over McCain, but would also chose McCain over Clinton, clearly doesn't have a clue about much of anything political. It's got to be all vague impressions of perceived personal qualities and not much about issues. I think McCain is very vulnerable here. Despite the so-called "Straight Talk Express" reputation, he's done an awful lot of pandering and opportunistic flip-flopping, and this is going to come out more and more now that McCain is the front-runner for the Republicans, especially considering how the Rabid Right is eagerly helping us destroy McCain right now.

What good will a few questionable and hypothetical extra percentage points of the independent vote do vs. losing quite a few percentage points of the natural Republican base? As foaming-at-the-mouth wingnuts like Limbaugh and Coulter have shown up, seething hatred against McCain can even exceed that for a Clinton -- and hatred of McCain is all the more personal many Republicans, who view McCain as one of their own who has betrayed them.

[FVZA_Colonel]

43. "seething hatred against McCain can even exceed that for a Clinton"

That is true, and I have been truly shocked at the sheer level of their hatred (if not the fact that it merely exists). Nonetheless, my concern here is that if he becomes finalized as their candidate they will simply fall in behind him lock-step (an amusing moment, to be sure), even more so if Clinton is the nominee for the Dems. Of course, as you basically said, the strength of their contempt for McCain does throw a bit of a monkeywrench into this.

[TwilightGardener]

45. LOL! You just proved the point of my post--you're focusing on McCain's

weaknesses, and NOT on what she plans to do, or has done so far, to draw Indies/non-Dems to her. I'm not talking Obama, I'm not talking about McCain, I'm not talking polls--I'm asking you WHAT SHE IS DOING, on her own, to appeal to a larger electorate than just Dems.

[Silent3]

82. She'll do it on the issues, which favor any Democrat right now

She may not do the feel-good soaring rhetoric as well as Obama does, but when she talks about universal health care, fiscal responsibility, getting out of Iraq, doing something about global warming and energy independence, etc., etc.. she's going to look very good compared to McCain (or any of the other Republican, should there be a surprising change) to Independents as well as Democrats.

[nonconformist]

34. Better question... how does Obama intend to hold all those Indies and moderate Republicans?

Most will jump ship to McCain, I guarantee it. Meanwhile, they're artificially inflating his numbers NOW.

[paulk]

39. that is the question, isn't it?

What evidence do we have that these voters aren't just voting for him to throw a spanner in the works?

[FVZA_Colonel]

40. That would have to be a hell of a lot of people engaged in this.

It just seems very unlikely that they'll all jump ship for McCain.

[TwilightGardener]

42. So...your answer as to how Hillary will appeal to Indies/Repubs is

to say "I bet Obama won't keep them", based on...nothing but conjecture. How does throwing the question onto Obama answer MY question about Hillary? I'm asking about HER.

[nonconformist]

52. Because Obama NEEDS the Indies and moderate Republicans to win.

Hillary doesn't. She can win without them. Take away that chunk of Obama's support, and he's in trouble. We both know that.

Frankly, anyone who is appealing more to moderate Republicans than to the working class blue collar Democrats gives me great pause.

I also ask how Obama plans to win with weak support among the working class, the Hispanics and the Asians.

[TwilightGardener]

54. You're saying that if Obama is the Democratic nominee, he's going to

lose the traditional Democratic voting groups? That's utter bullshit. And it still doesn't address my question--this isn't about Obama, this is about Hillary. What is Hillary's plan to appeal to MORE than just traditional Democrats?

[nonconformist]

59. And my answer is... she doesn't need them.

She has the traditional Democratic voters in the bag, and that WILL be enough.

That said, I do believe she has some appeal with Indies that supported Bill Clinton, and there were a LOT of them.

Some of those traditional Democratic voting blocks aren't very keen on Obama... and since his policies are VERY centrist, it's not out of the realm of possibility that some will jump to McCain or stay home. I don't think that he'll get the majority of the Hispanic vote, for one. That could be huge in big states like California. GLBT voters are between a rock and a hard place.

See, I'm old school that way. I tend to appreciate candidates who truly appreciate their base over candidates who take their base for granted and pander to the people who are wishy-washy and got us in the mess in the first place.

Fairweather friends are just that.

[TwilightGardener]

61. You finally answered my question: She doesn't need them. She does NOT

need any voters outside of Democrats. Now, if you seriously believe this, then we're in deep shinola, aren't we? Because McCain WILL get a lot of Indies/unaffiliated, which is a big voting block, AND he will get some really stupid Dems who happen to like war heroes, or dislike Hillary, AND he will keep most of his base, no matter how pissed off they are now. You've just served up a recipe for a Democratic loss in November. I don't know why you're bothering to slam Obama to me, this isn't about him, it's about her. But thank you for your honesty.

[nonconformist]

64. It's about who has the best chance out of the two of them

So I think it's relevant to discuss how the voting will break down for both.

Truth be told, I think we have an uphill battle with EITHER of them. But I do think that at the end of the day, Hillary has the better chance. She's more than prepared for the Republican smear machine, and I don't think Obama is AT ALL. I think depending on the Indies and moderate Republican "converts" for a win is a dangerous gamble, especially when the support among your base is scattered and downright weak in crucial areas.

[TwilightGardener]

69. First of all, I reject the argument out of hand that Democrats won't back Obama--it's patently

ridiculous. Obama has high favorability ratings, I don't think there are many in our party who oppose him or will refuse to vote for him. He will most certainly keep our blue states, and has a great chance of flipping some purple states. Secondly, you prove my original point. You would rather divert the conversation to whether she can fight the "smear" machine (in other words, trying to steer the topic back onto what you perceive to be her strength), or whether Obama or Hillary has a better vote breakdown. You've already answered my question: what does Hillary plan to do, or what has she been doing, to reach out beyond the Democratic party? Your answer: Nothing, besides hoping that Indies who liked Bill will like her. OK, fair enough. I'm not trying to make this an Obama vs. Hillary post, I'm seeking reassurance that she will be able to build a large enough electorate to win. Pointing at Obama's weaknesses, by comparison, is not helpful.

[nonconformist]

74. Well, you're right in that I don't think that Hillary will start pandering to Republicans

and saying that she'll adjust her policies to their liking to get their vote.

[TwilightGardener]

81. I don't think I suggested that as a tactic, anywhere.

[FVZA_Colonel]

73. I just think that's a foolish opinion.

Without those independents I just don't see her pushing over the top to beat McCain (or whoever the Repub nominee is).

[jeffrey_X]

65. He's already doing it. Haven't you seen the record voter turnout?

Who do you think is primarily responsible?

[nonconformist]

66. There's a huge difference between the primary and the GE. nt

[leftofthedial]

47. and if she keeps loaning money to her campaign,

how does she expect to win in her Undies?

[Recursion]

49. She doesn't. 4 more years of 50% + 1

Sigh

[izzybeans]

53. Against McCain she will have a very hard time.

Better pick a good VP candidate.

[Hippo_Tron]

62. As an Obama supporter I'll bite...

Bob Menendez did make a good argument last night that she will draw more white women and hispanic voters than we did in 2004 and that is what will put her over the top. I'm not entirely sure it's going to happen, but it's a reasonable argument.

[TwilightGardener]

63. But what about males? Not ALL women are going to vote for her, and

McCrazy is immigrant/Hispanic-friendly, so he might cut into her support there. I don't think you can count on these groups to make up for any loss of Dems and Indies who don't like her.

[Hippo_Tron]

67. Honestly I don't think she'll lose any more Dems and Indies than we did in 2004...

Kerry had a chance at them but because of swift boating and he was an incumbent "war president" they all flocked to Bush. The bottom line is that we're at a better starting point as a party in 2008 than we were in 2004 and I think Hillary at least does as well as Kerry.

I think Hillary's biggest problem is not independents (although Obama definitely does better with them than she does) I think it is that she will unite the GOP base behind John McCain who may not otherwise get them to show up.

On the other hand, if Obama is the nominee, John McCain has to work very very hard to unite his party and he may not succeed. Yes he does have appeal to independent voters and yes Obama does as well. The key is that McCain has to juggle uniting his base with appealing to independents while Obama can just focus on appealing to independents.

Hillary can win, but I like our odds much better with Obama.

[TwilightGardener]

72. I agree with much of what you say.

[JoePhilly]

68. She makes Obama her VP

[TwilightGardener]

70. That's not a failsafe solution. Sorry, it's not.

[JoePhilly]

76. Sure it does ...

On the issues, they are very very close ... he goes to the areas where this is important and puts those issues in HIS words.

They win, period.

[McCamy Taylor]

71. Same way we won Congress in 2006---make America despise Bush and the GOP.

Just as fear gets Republicans to vote, righteous indignation is what gets Democrats motivated to get off their asses and into the polling booth.

Hilary can remind Democrats of why they are Democrats. She can stir up the base. Without the base, you do not have a campaign. Independents are extras. We are Democrats first. If every Democrat came out to vote, we would not need anyone else. The Republicans will hate their ticket so much they will not be motivated to vote. Independents who bother to vote will split more for the Democrats out of disgust at the economy and the war.

When I see rank and file members of my party supporting one candidate over another, that makes me wonder if that candidate represents the core values of that party better than the other.

Sorry, I am not an independent.

I am a proud Democrat. I will vote for the party's nominee, but in the primary, I support the most Democratic candidate.

:dem:

[TwilightGardener]

79. So we don't need anyone outside of the Democratic party, and let's hope

Indies and Repubs are so demoralized that some either stay home or break our way. That sort of answers my question: What does Hillary do, in a POSITIVE way, to draw a bigger electorate, and you say--be as pure a Democrat as possible, and hope for disgust on the other side. Not a winning formula, sorry--it might work, or it might not--I'm finding very little comfort in that plan. I'm not asking who's the better Democrat, Hillary or Obama. My question was very narrow and specific, and I asked it fully expecting that Hillary supporters would not be able to answer it adequately. And I was right. It's become a forum to slam Obama and point out Republican weaknesses, without actually serving to examine Hillary's strengths OUTSIDE of traditional Dems.

[Apollo11]

75. 1. Half of all independents are women.

2. John McCain is a mad old maniac who has pandered to the right.

3. As Carville once wrote "It's The Economy, Stupid."

[TwilightGardener]

80. So, you're assuming that she'll get the female Indie vote. OK, hope you're

right about that. I guess we'll see. Pointing out McCain's weakness is exactly what I cautioned against in my post. I want to know what she does to DRAW non-Dems, not what he does to repel them. And RE the economy, it's hard to say what bearing that will have right now.