Potentially troubling numbers in the exit polls for Obama

[mohc]

Looking at the various exit poll numbers found here, Obama lost to Clinton among the voters that made up their mind "today". Obama led the category barely in Missouri and overwhelmingly in Utah, but lost the category in every other state. This includes states where he won my large margins like Illinois, Georgia, and Alabama. Conventional wisdom holds that late deciders break against the front-runner, presumably Clinton in this contest. Obama's numbers have certainly seen a steep increase over the past month, but is it possible that he is nearing a ceiling? Had Obama's momentum carried through and he won the late deciders, no doubt he would have carried more states, and perhaps even enough to have been declared a big winner last night. We will have to wait and see if a ceiling has been reached, or if Obama can reignite the momentum he was experiencing in the past week.

[Blue_In_AK]

1. Could be.

My husband and I ended up being counted for Hillary last night (we had gone in Edwards/uncommitted, but couldn't get the 15%), but only because Obama had such a commanding lead here, three to one. I just have a thing for underdogs. :shrug:

[tishaLA]

2. I think the surge Obama experienced

in the week leading up to the primary may have given him the de facto front-runner status. It is certainly the way the press was playing it. And we have two candidates who perform best with the electorate when they look like they are underdogs.

I also think that the economic uncertainty plays into Sen Clinton's hands, particularly with a 350 pt drop in the Dow yesterday. It may not have effected votes everywhere, but it would have been an important consideration in CA, for example, because of foreclosures in CA being so high and the news of the stock market's downturn hitting here at midday.

[Abacus]

3. Yes, it's a bit ridiculous...

It's the first time I've seen someone coming from behind in the polls regarded as the front runner.

[mohc]

4. Does that cause concern going forward?

That is the real question. If Obama plays better as an underdog, then I think he very well may have trouble in the near future. It looks like by the end of the counting of delegates for Super Tuesday Obama will come out slightly ahead. Add in his pledged delegate lead from January and the fact that the calendar for the rest of February is favorable, and I think its going to be very hard for Obama to NOT be considered the frontrunner by the end of the month.

Does it change his rhetoric? Can you keep going back to a claim that people are saying "No you can't", if in fact that no longer seems to be the case? It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.