Why this campaign keeps surprising

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

All old-time political pros know that momentum is a very real phenomenon. When Obama surged after Iowa and had big leads in NH polling, everyone knew that his final total would be even bigger... a drop-dead blow-out.

That is what would have happened in any normal election. But the Iowa bounce was a 3-4 day move.

Then Obama surged big-time after his South Carolina landslide, and it was obvious that he was going to put Clinton away on Super Tuesday, but exactly the same thing happened... the momentum fizzled in an impossibly short time going into Super Tuesday, with things simmering down to 50-50.

So what we are learning is that the Obama candidacy is something new under the sun. It moves more like like a pop-culture phenomenon than a political campaign. People are easily moved toward him, but have an inertial disposition to move away from him.

And that's why everyone is scratching their heads all the time. Obama is the highest "Beta" political stock were have ever seen. ("Beta" is a measure of volatility in a stock.)

That doesn't mean he sucks, or that he's great. It's just different. His easy ability to attract, but not necessarily hold, swing types has implications for the long-term viability of his campaign, and is consistent with the position almost all pollsters have come to adopt, which is that he has the best chance of winning 56%, and also the best chance of winning 40%.

High Beta.

And that explains the extreme range of opinions of his candidacy. "Glass half full" people see a fuller glass than they've ever seen. "Glass half empty" people see looming disaster.

And they are both right!

[cali]

1. what? your narrative is absurd. and not the cw by any stretch

yes, he was expected to win in NH and then came her emotional moment and a debate that was better for her than him. And NO political analyst thought that he'd put her away on Feb 5. As in none, kurt; not EJ Dionne, or Peter Hart or Larry Sabato. Find anyone reputable who said that. it was not the conventional wisdom. The CW was that he'd pick up 4 or 5 states and that he'd lose CA even if he had a surge do to the early voting and the latino vote.

Your entire theory is built on thin air.

Here's the reality:

He made fairly steady progress in all the Super Tuesday states. The CW is actually that if he had another week he would have done even better. CT and MS are excellent examples of this.

Beta Shmeta.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. Ah! Love that passionate intensity!

But I've been lacking conviction lately.

Just a little.

--p!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Built on air?

There is nothing fantastic about what I'm saying. Polling has NEVER been this fucked up (historical fact), and it's because this election is atypical.

Obama moves up and down with unprecedented ease, and the electorate is unstable in ways we have never seen before.

The devotion of his core support is unquestioned, but he's like quicksilver in the mushy middle.

That might make him the best candidate ever, or the worst. But he's not average.

It's just what it is.