John Zogby say's Electoral Map Favoring Kerry

[59millionmorons]

In a must-read article, Howard Gold of Barrons asked pollster John Zogby to "lay out the electoral map as he sees it, based on various polls conducted throughout the country." The resulting table is very good news for Democrats:
John Kerry "is ahead in 18 of the so-called Blue states (including the District of Columbia), representing some 226 electoral votes."
President Bush "leads in 21 of the Red states, with 176 electoral votes."
"A dozen more states, with 136 electoral votes, are considered in play."
If Zogby's current estimate holds, all Kerry "will need to do is take Ohio and Florida to pass the 270-vote threshold and win the presidency." And Bush "would seem to have an uphill battle here, if things continue as they are now."

"Why? Because only four of the states that we list as 'in play' (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington) were Blue states in 2000, when they delivered a majority for Vice-President Al Gore.

"The other eight states that are 'in play' now (including Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Missouri), with a treasure trove of 98 electoral votes, were part of Bush Country in 2000.

"That suggests the Democratic presidential candidate is holding his base of support better than the president is, allowing Senator Kerry to peel off a couple of the paler Red states from the president's column."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/03/07/polls_show_electoral_map_favoring_kerry.html

[RichV]

1. MO, OH, FL, WV, NH, NV, AZ

are key. How old is John Glenn? Would he be a good VP for the first term? Those OH electoral votes are mighty appealing...

[Padraig18]

2. John Glenn is 82.

A very FIT 82, but still 82...

[pmbryant]

3. Glenn is about 83 or so

I think that's a bit old for VP, alas. :-(

Peter

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. if he was a republican nobody would care how old John Glen was

I say tab him anyway. For four years I think he can hold up.

[Padraig18]

5. I'm reasonably certain he has *many* good years left.

Not a thing wrong with his brain OR his body. I'm just not sure how the electorate would respond to someone that old. :)

[Gman]

6. all Kerry "will need to do is take Ohio and Florida...

to pass the 270-vote threshold and win the presidency."

Much easier said than done.

[59millionmorons]

7. Actually

All Kerry needs is to hold the blue stats and pick up one of the following, OH,FL,NH,AR,WV. Bush cannot win without both OH and FL period. We will know early in the night if Bush is finished, if he looses FL or OH, good night Irene.

[RichV]

9. Very true

But Gore did only lose OH by about 4 (right?) and barely acknowledged the state's existence... and that was before the massive economic problems they've faced since 2000.

[still_one]

8. POLLS do not mean a thing

bush hasn't even started spending, and the media has just started to bash Kerry.

This is going to be a very tough election, because we will be fighting against the bush media, and media who will not portray him in a fair light

[RichV]

10. At least useful as a snapshot

Even given BushCo hasn't spent much yet. Hopefully when they do they'll get hammered by both bad press (re: 9/11 ads) and retorts from both Kerry and our friends at MoveOn. And maybe, just maybe, the public will grow tired of 8 months of ads about war and tax cuts.

[59millionmorons]

12. Bush better hope

that his next wave of ads go better than his first wave did.

[Nazgul35]

11. If Zogby is saying this....

it is much worse for Bush than he makes out...


His polls always favor the repugs....Kerry really must be kicking Bush's ass all over the red states...

If things break right....this could be a massive landslide against Bush...electoral college speaking...

[RichV]

13. Most likely kicking ass (even if lightly) in purple states

Rather than true red ones. Unfortunately, I think we all know where each party has a stranglehold right now. And it may take a successful and unifying Kerry presidency to turn that tide toward the Dem column... at least somewhat. We'll probably never get the social conservatives on board.