When will Obama overtake Clinton in Total Delegates?

[FlyingSquirrel]

(Including Superdelegates)

My vote: Feb. 12

Definitely sometime in February if not then.

However, without any recent polls in later states, it's difficult to say what happens after that. The momentum he gains in Feb. may carry over to the rest of the states - OR Clinton may get a second wind from states in which she's been ahead in the (outdated) polls so far. OH and TX have significant numbers of delegates, but could cancel each other out.

Pennsylvania could be key for her - perhaps her best chance for retaking the lead. On the other hand, PA is not till April 22 and the contest could be basically over by then. If she does NOT manage to retake the lead by Apr 22, it'll be pretty much over for her.

[papau]

1. Obama has now won 5 "blue states" and 13 "red"(of which 2 were "close red" in 04) - why would he be

stronger than Hillary in the general if he can not beat her in the "base" of a Democratic election victory in 08?

Below are results to date with 08 winning percent and Bush-Kerry 2004 vote totals.


Primaries

Alabama 56% 1,176,394 693,933
Connecticut 51% 693,826 857,488
Delaware 53% 171,660 200,152
Georgia 67% 1,914,254 1,366,149
Illinois 65% 2,346,608 2,891,989
Missouri 49% 1,455,713 1,259,171
South Carolina 55% 937,974 661,699
Utah 57% 663,742 241,199

Caucuses

Alaska 75% 190,889 111,025
Colorado 67% 1,101,255 1,001,732
Idaho 79% 409,235 181,098
Iowa 38% 751,957 741,898
Kansas 74% 736,456 434,993
Minnesota 67% 1,346,695 1,445,014
Nebraska 68% 512,814 254,328
North Dakota 61% 196,651 111,052
Washington 67% 1,304,894 1,510,201


Louisiana (likely win), 1,102,169 820,299

So do red state delegates determine who we nominate? - isn't that a way to lose? - The GOP give extra weight to states that voted GOP in the last election - and that seems to have worked - has the world really changed so we are better off listening to Democrats who can't deliver their state?

[tammywammy]

2. Was posting this is it's own thread not enough

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Oh, P.S. here are my actual predictions for Delegate Totals

(I'm pretty good at this, got within 1.6% margin pre-Super Tues. So ya better listen up!)

:D

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Feb 10 (or sometime before Feb 12, after delegates have been assigned from WA, NE, LA, ME):

Clinton 1129, Obama 1098

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Feb 12 (or within a few days afterward, when delegates have been assigned from DC, MD, VA):

Obama 1201, Clinton 1189

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And yes, I'm ignoring the non-germane post above ;)

[Laelth]

4. I hope, for the good of the party, Hillary "suspends" next week.

I do not believe she can win. (for better or for worse)

My argument is here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4473170&mesg_id=4473170

-Laelth

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. I don't think she will....

I think her push for FL and MI delegates shows she is willing to do whatever it takes. I think her campaign has been spinning things as though she can overcome Obama's momentum and win in the later states, and that her Superdelegate lead will hold up.

However, I think her loss in WA today is the canary in the coal mine. She probably should suspend next week but I don't see it happening till at least March 4 if things don't go better for her by then. She may hold out as late as PA (April 22).

She has nothing to lose (personally) by this since this is most likely her only chance at the Presidency. If she doesn't win this time around, Obama will probably win the GE. Even if he doesn't, she may not be able to rally the kind of support she has been getting from party leaders next time.

I would say if she doesn't retake the lead after the March 4 primaries or at least come close, she should probably suspend for the good of the party like you're saying.