Listen folks. Ohio is Clinton's firewall

[Perky]

Polling and geography suggest that she is going to lose everything between now and March 4th. That means a couple of things:

Obama will likely pass her in total delegate count.

For the month of February she will have only won deep blue states that Obama would win as well in the GE and she would have won only two swing states (Arizona and New Hampshire) She will not win Oklahoma and Tennessee in the fall.

Whereas Obama will have proven repeatedly that he can win across the country. Missouri..Washington, South Carolina...The Potomacs He has proven he can get white voters. He has proven he can raise more cash from small donors.

The polls continue to show that he does better against McCain.

But what he has not shown is that he can win Union households and Reagan Democrats. If she does not come through with a convincing win in Ohio (even if she wins Texas) The hue and cry from party leadership is going to start getting very loud for her to step aside for the party.

She is going to have to win convincingly in Ohio and the thing of it is, Ohio is an open primary and probably an important barometer of how McCain can attract moderate voters. If McCain has it sewed up by then. There will be alot of indies voting in the Democratic primary. She can still pull it out there but she is going to have to get very enthusiastic support from unions and we need to remember that she does not do well with white men.


If she does not win there She will probably need to close it down.

[NightWatcher]

1. how can she claim that she'd win the general when she writes off so many states in the primary

isnt this the failed Giuliana strategy all over again?

[lumberjack_jeff]

2. Washington is a lock by either candidate. n/t

[book_worm]

3. to be honest, I think HRC has a shot at Wisconsin, though Obama has momentum

and might win.

[ginnyinWI]

18. Everybody's endorsing Obama here

The governor has. David Obey has. The mayors of the larger cities in SE Wisconsin: Waukesha, Racine, Kenosha, Milwaukee. I think that's saying something.

Also, all of our neighbors have gone for Obama: MN, IA, and IL. And Michigan would have.

[ShadowLiberal]

26. I agree, I think she was up by like 10 yesterday in Wisconsin

[Perky]

29. Got a poll? Got a link?

[IndieLeft]

64. Of course not. And I highly doubt Clinton leads there... One hour north of Chicago?

[AllyCat]

42. I've yet to see a single Clinton bumper sticker, yard sign, or talked to a supporter

here. Seriously. Lots of Obama, but haven't talked to a soul who says they are planning to vote for her. Most wanted Kucinich or Edwards. Now, they are all seeming to shift to Clinton.

[Perky]

46. SHift to Clinton? DId you meant shift to Obama?

[AllyCat]

57. Yikes...yeah, that's what I meant to say...Obama shift

That's what happens when I try to type with a toddler trying to "help" at the keyboard. I get distracted.

[bulloney]

50. Same here. I work on a college campus. I see Obama stickers. I even see Ron Paul signs.

I have yet to see any Clinton campaign materials.

[hill08]

4. taking into account

that McCain lost to Huck today, indies will rush to help him out in Ohio. I guess Obama cannot count on them to help him win in March

[Windy]

11. Indies are voting as they are because they are against the war and

because of the war, they won't vote for McCain.

[ginnyinWI]

22. Obama has an approval rating of 62% among Indies

According to Pew Research. And he has unusually low negatives.

[Eric J in MN]

5. Candidates don't prove which states they'll win through primary victories.

A lot more people vote in the general election, and they have different characteristics on average then primary voters.

Do you think Obama will win South Carolina if he's the nominee?

[Perky]

15. Yes I do. For a couple of reasons.

The AFrican American vote will be huge

Evangelicals reaallly do not like McCain and some will sit it out.

Conservatives really do not like McCain ans some will sit it out.


McCain has a lwer ceiling os support and Obama has a higher floor.

The other factor is that there is truly historic juxtaposition in play in this state that is the birthplace of the confederacy. People undertand the change message in a lot of diffent ways. ANd won of them is moving beyond the racial divide. I think it will be a close race... but also a bit of a perfect storm.

I do not hold out hope for an Obama win in any ithe southern state, except perhaps for Louisiana. But I think he will McCain a real run in SC.

[Eric J in MN]

30. I predict that the Democratic nominee will get a bigger percent of the vote in FL than in SC,

...regardless of who the nominee is.

That's what happened in the last two presidential elections.

[thevoiceofreason]

6. Is Ohio an open primary?

[Alhena]

8. Semi-open, independents can vote. Pennsylvania is closed

[mtnester]

35. Ohio is NOT an open primary

You must declare as a Democrat to vote in the primary. If you are an Independent, you will henceforth be listed as a registered Democrat for at least two years (until the next Senate race year which is the next tome you can change your party affiliation). You can do it on the spot by asking for a Democratic Primary ballot.

If you are a Republican and want to vote in the Democratic Primary, you WILL be switching your party of registration to Democrat for at least two years (same as above)

Otherwise, you can ask for an "issues only" ballot and remain listed with no party affiliation.

[Alhena]

7. To be a firewall, she has to win it overwhelmingly ...

if Obama closes the gap and only loses by 8 points or so, that's no firewall.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

48. she's had three previous

firewalls, by different names, and she has changed her campaign meme no less than 6 major times. at least she got rid of that ridiculous "35 years of experience for change" crap. Not only was it insulting, and patently false, it represented such skewed logic that you could almost smell Karl Rove's aftershave on it.


In every state she has lost in February, she held a huge lead in November and December. The trend lines are just horrible for her, but that is something they'd prefer to ignore. They'd rather beat the dead horse of Schuster's comments on MSGOP.

[Windy]

9. She won't win Cleveland, mark my word. She may win Cincinnati though

I grew up there and frankly, they still act like the old south during segregation. It is pretty disgusting.

But I think he will do very well in Cleveland and Akron...

But never say never, he won a lot of middle america by overwhelming margins so if WE WORK HARD ENOUGH, he may just do it!

[OzarkDem]

17. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones is campaigning for Hillary

here's her picture for a clue...



Both Clintons have long enjoyed strong support in Greater Cleveland, Toledo, Akron/Canton/ Youngstown. Same with Columbus, where Governor Ted Strickland is in charge of her campaign. He's a Democrat.

The only areas Obama will do well is, maybe Cincinnati. The GOP is likely to turn out heavy for him there.

[Windy]

56. Care to wager on that? won't happen. nt

[Riley133]

70. Gov Strickland (D) just announced a statewide job cut of 2700

as well as other cuts; therefore, his endorsement might not mean as much. I just read where another poster said Hillary was hated in Cincinnati so I dunno - maybe history won't be a factor and it will truly be anyone's race.

[Dark]

60. I live in Cincy. We HATE Clinton here.

And, the further out into the rural areas you get, the more palpable the hatred is.

[hisownpetard]

In the OP, did you mean to say "firewall" or "farewell"?

:shrug:

[thevoiceofreason]

12. I thought that too.

[WillyT]

21. Me Three !!!

:shrug:

[hisownpetard]

10. delete - dupe

[sfam]

13. I thought HIllary is supposed to win tomorrow...do you disagree?

If she loses in Maine tomorrow, that would really be a downer for her supporters I think...but what makes you think she will?

[Colobo]

14. She'll win tomorrow.

[Perky]

16. It is a caucuse state and Obama has proven hi campaign has a great GOTV

campability again and again and again.... I also think there will be a bit of let down after tonight and I suspect that there will be an enthusiasm gap.


I have seen no polling one way or the other..... but look at other caucus states... Obama wins typically by 25% or more. Nevada is the only caucus she has won.

[Perky]

34. .

[smalll]

32. It's a caucus state. If Hillary can stay over 40%, it will be an expectational victory for her. /nt

[Perky]

47. SHe will split the delegates....but thatis not how it will play if Obama wins by 15%

[VolcanoJen]

19. Hillary has adopted the Rudy Giuliani strategy.

She ceded today's states to Obama. Practically handed them over to him. Didn't spend money, didn't do much campaigning, no ground operation, and scant staff.

It's getting to the point where she might not win a contest this month. If that happens, or if Obama manages to take the lion's share and by huge margins as he did tonight, support for Clinton in my state of Ohio will collapse, the same Florida folded up for Rudy.

She's got to figure out a way to stop Obama's momentum, or this thing is going to really slip away from her.

[RaleighNCDUer]

31. But of course, we ALL know that the ONLY reason he is winning

ANYTHING is because of all the republicans that are voting for him.






Is

:sarcasm:

really necessary?

[Major Hogwash]

38. Bingo! She campaigned hard on the 2 coasts and in Texas. Everything else was flyover country.

Huge mistake.

[thevoiceofreason]

39. Her presence in Houston is . . .

Nil. She has a few local politicos supporting her, but yesterday showed the difference. Obama HQ grand opening -- 500-600. Clinton downtown show of support -- a few dozen. I'll admit she has the institutional support, but there is a huge level of energy here for Barack.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

20. well we had better get ourselves to Ohio

Texas, PA too.

[returnable]

23. Hmmm... Last time we heard about a "firewall state"...

...Rudy was dropping out of the race. I don't disagree that it's the obvious Clinton strategy now. But once you start banking on a single state, it tends to blow up in your face. Especially when your challenger will be riding a HUGE wave of victorie$$$$$.

[K Gardner]

24. Just got off the phone with my son in Cinncinnati.. just antecdotal..

But he is the executive chef for a huge company and they're all over the place in Ohio. Company is solid Republican ownership, etc., and he lives in a hugely RED district. And man, he is FIRED UP about Obama and the company owners have totally abandoned the Republican party and will be voting for Barack. He says its the same in the small district where he lives.. its all about Obama. Now, the qualifier.. the people he knows won't vote McCain if Obama is in the race, but they'll vote McCain if Hillary is in the race. They will not vote for her.
He also says many of the dem-leaning voters he talks to will not vote in the GE rather than vote for Clinton. Don't kill the messenger.. just antecdotal.

[OnionPatch]

27. I'm hearing the same from my family back in OH.

The Independents, even some of the more conservative ones, are swinging for Obama. If Hillary is the nominee, they will stay home. Of course this is just my little circle of acquaintances from back home, but it matches what you are saying.

[geiger]

37. my Mom is a die-hard Bush supporter (from Ohio) and will be voting for Obama

she also serves as an officer in a county R Party.....

[aquarius dawning]

40. This Ohioan will be voting for her and in all honesty, I have hard core Repub acquaintances

who will too if McCain gets the nomination. Barack will fare well in the city but Ohio is comprised of more than Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinatti. Rural Ohio likes moderate democrats, not super liberal Kennedy/kerry endorsed Democrats. The 2006 elections showed this to be true irrefutably (in more places than Ohio incidentally).

[Perky]

41. So who does that favor?

[aquarius dawning]

45. IMO, Hillary is the lesser of the two evils to moderate Democrats and Republicans

and, apparently, to ultra-conservatives who absolutely hate John McCain. Their hatred for him seems legitimate to me. Moderate Republicans, however, will be choosing between Hillary and McCain I think. Barack won't even be an option in their minds and that Kennedy endorsement will be his kiss of death in a general election (IMO).

[AZBlue]

25. So we need to call and support Obama in Ohio every way possible.

[K Gardner]

28. Its SO easy to do phonebanking for them. I'm all set up with a Log In and its

so VERY easy to do ! I guess since my son lives there, I'll drive up for a week or so and see what I can do and definitely will be going up when Obama does a rally there. This is something I want to do with my most favored son :-) Something he will ALWAYS remember.

[usregimechange]

33. Not quite that bad, Ohio has almost no Latino population and has AA pop = to national average

[AllyCat]

44. yes, but it also has rigged voting machines that have already proven their muscle

just like what was rolled out in New Mexico. Greg Palast said it will be stolen again (and likely in those states, plus more). Even Rush said the other day that Republicans who don't like McCain should switch parties and vote for Clinton because "they know how to run against her".

[Riley133]

59. I don't believe that's correct for Columbus n/t

[thevoiceofreason]

36. The Double Rudy

Good luck!

[Perky]

43. lol

[farmbo]

49. Hillary has the Strickland machine, Obama has Coleman's (mayor of Cols.)

Ohio also has no-fault early voting (30 days out) which will help Hillary. Many households will have voted for Hillary before the campaign even starts.

On the other hand, Ohio's many college campuses seem to be buzzing for Obama.

Get your popcorn ready and settle in. Its gonna be a barn-burner.

[OzarkDem]

52. Clinton also has Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones

the most prominent and well liked AA elected official in Ohio.

Coleman's strength is only in Columbus, not exactly the kind of area where Obama is strong.

[Arugula Latte]

51. Not that we matter (we vote in May), but Oregon will go Obama.

Bet on it.

Just wanted to throw that out there.

[democrattotheend]

53. I don't think she loses Wisconsin, and she might win Maine

I hate how the media is treating the rest of February as a given for Obama, when several states, especially Wisconsin and Maine, are far from guaranteed. It's a no-win situation - the best he can do is meet expectations, which won't give him much momentum. But all she has to do is not get killed and she stays in, and if she wins even one contest this month, it's an upset. The demographics of Maine might favor Clinton, and I definitely think that's the case in Wisconsin.

[WCGreen]

54. So Obama wins a primary in South Carolina proves he is capable

of winning there in the fall while HRC winning in Tennessee doesn't mean she wins in the fall...

Personally, I don't think we win either state regardless who the nominee is...

But at least try to be consistent in your arguements...

[Perky]

65. Hillary has won 1 Southern states by a modest margin while Obama has won 4 by huge numbers a

She is doing lousy with southern white males whil Obama is holdig his own.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

55. If Ohio is a Closed Primary then I will trust the results

[Perky]

63. That is a crazy argument

What does a closed primary prove? That you can when you own kind? I buy that but waht is the value in proving that? General elections are won and lost in the middle. Having vrosspver appeal is more valuable than proving you can secure the base of which 90%+ is going to support the nominee anyway.


The very worst thing we can do is elect a nominee who has no great appeal to the middle. McGovern, Mondale. Dukakis got their hats handed to them becasue they had no appeal. Same thing happened with Goldwater on the GOP side. It time we get an electoral and poplar mandate. Obama is our best chance in 44 years to see that happen...because he appeals to the middle as well as progressives.

[PaDem]

58. How is Arizona a swing state?

I'm missing something here.

[Perky]

62. BNy vitrue of having a popular Dem Governor.

[PaDem]

66. Isn't it "not" a swing state by virtue.........

of it's being home to the Republican Presidential nominee? Arizona's in play to the degree that Oklahoma is in play.

[Riley133]

61. 2/3/08 - Columbus Dispatch - CLINTON (& JRE supporters, take a look!)

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/02/03/POLL03.ART_ART_02-03-08_A1_T197O4N.html?adsec=politics&sid=101

[TexasObserver]

67. She probably won't drop out before Ohio, but may be done by then

Tin soldiers and Hillary's coming ....

[bilgewaterbill]

68. Firewall or farewell?

[Perky]

69. I am on the verge of saying: "same thing"