Obama does well against McCain. So did Bush vs. Gore and Kerry vs. Bush. What happened?

[jackson_dem]

Many folks are putting a lot of faith in polling about general election match ups. They ignore the fact the "new" candidate always sees his support decline as his negatives rise once he gets attacked by the other party. Here is some historical perspective.

Bush vs. Gore

March 13, 2000: Bush 49, Gore 43 (Bush at 52 among likely voters, down from 57 the month before)
July 27, 2000: Bush 50, Gore 39, Nader 4
Election Day: Gore 48, Bush 48 (Gore wins by half a million)

Bush vs. Kerry

February 3, 2004: Kerry 53, Bush 46
April 27, 2004: Kerry 52, Bush 44
August 3, 2004: Kerry 50, Bush 44
Election Day: Bush 51, Kerry 48 (Bush wins by three million)

What happened? In both cases the "new" candidate was attacked for months by the other party and his negatives inevitably rose. Anyone who thinks Obama is immune from this is insane. He may still ultimately end with lower negatives than Hillary but the idea that his current poll positions will not change after the rethugs go after him and the media stops promoting him is absurd.

Hillary is an exception to this. The rethugs have already thrown the kitchen sink at her for sixteen years. Her poll numbers will remain stable. Almost everyone already has a strong opinion about her.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/03/13/poll.cnn/index.html
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/07/27/cnn.poll/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/02/elec04.poll.prez/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/03/08/elect04.prez.poll/index.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34914-2004Aug2.html

[ingac70]

1. This time, the righties will be attacking McCain's military service....

Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain has already fired up, and the far right has been pushing it.

[Thrill]

2. Hillary is the exception? Please

They are going to have more crap to throw at her. This isn't like winning the Senate in NY.

[jackson_dem]

3. Like what? They haven't had anything new on her in years

The "blockbuster" Bernstein book could only produce the Earth shattering claim that Hillary had ambition.

[Thrill]

5. You really believe that?

They've been gearing up to face her for 10+ yrs. And they don't have to do much anyway considering, how much their base is going to be energized to face her.

[jackson_dem]

8. I don't operate on "faith" or "hope"

Their base will be energized against any Democrat, just like they were against Gore and Kerry. Obama's negatives will rise. If anything his small leads should be a concern. Bush and Kerry were ahead comfortably at this time in 2000 and 2004 respectively. Bush suffered an 11 point decline. Imagine if Obama does the same... :scared:

[Thrill]

16. He'll just come back. McCain isn't going to run that close

when his shit is called to the carpet. Senators with long voting records like his don't win Presidential Elections. And that will continue

[jackson_dem]

18. Obama has a long voting record too

Do you think the rethugs will ignore his Illinois voting record? Present?

[anigbrowl]

10. For example...

the right has gone quiet about Norman Hsu (you remember the donor who had put almost $1 million into her campaign but turned out to be all kinds of illegal). If she is the nominee they'll drag out all the juicy details and chew over them in public, and the sad fact is that it was pretty careless of the Clinton campaign not to look into the background of such large donor.

In the interests of fairness (because I'm not writing this for Clinton bashing purposes), they'll do the same thing with Obama and Rezko, and try to paint it as corrupt Chicago politics - even though there's nothing there, Obama answered questions about it very forthrightly over a year ago, and it's really just a way to remind hard core republicans that Chicago = Richard Daley, dodgy politics, 1968 Democrat convention, yadda yadda.

Either Democratic candidate will have mud thrown at them. Mostly it's just to keep the GOP troops fired up and excited, and won't have that much influence on swing voters. I do think it's fair to say, though, that hard core Republicans have been hating Hillary for a lot longer than they've been making cheap jokes about Obama's middle name. They dis him reflexively because he's a Dem but their heart isn't really in it, from the folk I've talked to.

[calmblueocean]

15. There are lots of rumors about Bill.

That's what this Hillary-is-invulnerable argument never mentions. There have been several rumors about Bill's continued wanderings, and the big problem is that they don't even need to be true to hurt. If people even think that Bill is going to be on the make in the White House, much of the country will reject Hillary as a candidate.

[lligrd]

4. We All Know What Happened

Diebold.

[jackson_dem]

6. How did Gore come back from 11 down at this time in 2000 to win?

Gore was the known quantity. Bush was that year's Obama.

[The_Casual_Observer]

7. Maybe Obama will go crying again to the ABC morning show & everything

will be alright.

[MagickMuffin]

9. The Bush/Cheney Regime/Cartel/Cabal already had their Machine working for them

Polling data isn't very reliable to begin with, anyone can say anything to influence the polls.

And the media helped out A whole lot. They gave us the perception of Mad king Boy George as a charming guy, someone you want to have a beer with, someone who has family values.:eyes:

We won the last two (S)elections, however with the Machine in place in both (S)elections there was no way they were going to let the winners take control of the White House.

[jackson_dem]

12. In those ways Bush 00' parallels Obama 08'

Both were packaged as charming, normal guys who had a record of bringing folks of all kinds of political persuasions together.

[MagickMuffin]

17. I haven't really noticed the media fawning all over Obama liked they did Bush

And of course Bushes nonsense of bringing people together was just a wedge issue, like all the other wedge issues that were spouting to drive people to their Dark Side.

At least I haven't seen Obama use wedge issues. He tries to inspire his voters to believe in their government. I see nothing wrong with that. With everything this country has endured with the rethuglicons over several decades, I understand how people see Obama as hope for our future.

I just hope that all the people who are voting for Obama will vote for him in the GE if he is the nominee.

[jackson_dem]

19. The data speaks for itself

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4400730&mesg_id=4401072

Obama is also using it as a wedge issue against Clinton. Bush used it as a wedge against Gore by invoking Bill Clinton. Obama is doing the same thing except that Hillary is serving in Al Gore's role this time.

[AX10]

11. The GOP has nothing left on HRC except old stuff.

Obama is fresh for the picking for the GOP.

[jackson_dem]

13. Yup, just like Kerry 04' and Bush 00' was for us

If anything history shows us Obama's small leads may be a warning sign. Bush and Kerry both lost 11 points during the campaign. If Obama loses 11 points from his 3-4 point lead over McCain we are fucked...

[AX10]

14. Most certainly.